Effects of time horizon and asset condition on the profitability of technical trading rules

In much of the literature, the debate over technical trading strategies has centered around the question of whether an actively managed portfolio, controlled by a technical indicator, can outperform a passively managed portfolio. Typically, the time horizon is considered to be years. Additionally, the trader is assumed to use a technical trading strategy that is independent of asset conditions. These assumptions may not correspond well with reality. Traders often have much shorter time horizons and may switch between rebalancing or trading strategies on the basis of perceived shifts in market condition. This paper presents a study of the profitability of technical trading rules as a function of asset state or condition. Several common technical trading strategies were run on 296 stocks over a 15 year period. Strategies were run with 1 month rolling time horizons, significantly shorter than those used in similar studies in the literature. Stocks were segmented based on volatility and volume, which allowed for the examination of a strategy’s performance in different asset conditions. Several strategies were demonstrated to have consistently better risk-to-reward ratios under specific asset conditions and short time horizons. This finding helps to explain why some practitioners implement technical trading strategies.     

Positive and Negative Antecedents of Purchasing Eco-friendly Products: A Comparison Between Green and Non-green Consumers

This study aims to analyze what drives and prevents the purchasing of eco-friendly products across different consumer groups and develops a conceptual model embracing the positive altruistic (care for the environmental consequences of purchasing), positive ego-centric (green self-identity and moral obligation), and negative ego-centric (perceived personal inconvenience of purchasing eco-friendly products) antecedents of eco-friendly product purchase intention and behavior. We empirically validate the conceptual model for green (n = 453) and non-green (n = 473) consumers (i.e., consumers who engage in a set of pro-environmental behaviors for environmental reasons versus consumers who do not engage in these behaviors). Data are analyzed using structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis of the two groups. The results confirm the relevance of the determining factors in the model and show significant differences in eco-friendly product purchasing patterns between green and non-green consumers. Altruistic motives are more important for green than for non-green consumers. Negative ego-centric motives affect the purchase intentions of non-green consumers more than the intentions of green consumers, whereas the impact of negative motives on behavior is stronger for green than for non-green consumers. The first contribution of this paper is the development and testing of a parsimonious model of eco-friendly products purchasing that embraces both positive (altruistic and ego-centric) and negative (ego-centric) antecedents, which have been theoretically suggested in the past but have rarely been empirically tested together. The second contribution of this study is that it develops insight into the specific antecedents of eco-friendly products purchasing for green and non-green consumers to assess potential similarities and differences in eco-friendly products purchasing process, the hypothesized antecedents, their impact on eco-friendly products purchase intention and behavior, and the intention–behavior relation.     

The influence of gender on the effectiveness of probability markers in advertising

The results of two studies reveal that gender plays a moderating role on the effects that the use of probability markers (hedges – e.g., possibly, could help; and pledges – e.g., definitely, without a doubt) in advertising copy has on consumers' attitudes towards the brand advertised and purchase intentions. Women, as comprehensive processors, are not particularly sensitive to probability markers, which function as heuristic cues. Men, on the other hand, display higher levels of sensitivity towards probability marker usage; more precisely, their responses show preference towards the use of hedges over both pledges and no probability markers in advertising copy. Interactions with product category involvement, buying motivation (hedonic or utilitarian), and familiarity with the brand advertised are also explored.     

The association between the severity of chronic kidney disease and medical costs among patients with type 2 diabetes

Aims: Examine healthcare costs across chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages for US patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Materials and methods: IQVIA Real World Data Adjudicated Claims linked electronic medical records and insurance claims from January 1, 2012 through March 31, 2017 were used for this retrospective study. Adults diagnosed with T2D and comorbid CKD were included. General linear models incorporating splines were constructed, and information from these regressions were used to inform the relationship between medical costs and CKD. Multivariable analyses controlled for patient characteristics, vital signs, general health, prior medication use, prior visit to specialists, index A1c, and year of index date.

Results: There were 6,645 individuals who met the study criteria. Results generally indicate sharp increases in annual total medical costs and non-drug medical costs in the 1?year post-period for patients with Stage 4 or 5 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]?≤?30?mL/min/1.73 m²) with each 1 point reduction in eGFR from 30 associated with an increase of $1,870 in all-cause total medical costs (p?<?0.0001) and $1,805 of all-cause non-drug medical costs (p?<?0.0001). Similarly, each point decline below 30?mL/min was associated annual cost increases of $1,701 for CKD-related total medical costs, $1,695 for CKD-related non-drug medical costs, $173 for diabetes-related medical costs, and $187 for diabetes-related non-drug medical costs (all p?<?0.0001).

Limitations: The investigation included only patients with medical insurance and laboratory test results, and results may not be generalizable to all T2D patients with CKD. The methodology allowed us to determine associations, not causation, and potential confounders, such as duration of diabetes, diet, exercise, or social support, could not be assessed.

Conclusions: Results indicate there are sharp and significant increases in medical costs among T2D patients with Stage 4 and 5 CKD compared to those with earlier stages of CKD.     

Sentiment and stock returns: The SAD anomaly revisited

Widely-cited research by Kamstra et al. (2003) argues that changes in mood resulting from Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) drive changes in investor risk aversion and cause seasonal patterns in aggregate stock returns around the world. In this paper we reexamine the so-called SAD effect by replicating and extending Kamstra et al. (2003). We study the psychological underpinnings of the SAD hypothesis and show that the time-series predictions of the SAD model do not correspond to the seasonal patterns in depression found in the general population. We also investigate the cross-sectional prediction that SAD has a greater effect on stock markets in countries where SAD is more prevalent and find no relation between the prevalence of SAD and stock returns. Finally, we document that the SAD effect is mechanically driven by an overlapping dummy-variable specification and higher returns around the turn of the year.     

Educational Insights: A Hybrid Course in Risk Management and Insurance

Universities and colleges continue to face constraints related to classroom space and faculty time, thus increasing the need to consider options such as hybrid courses that can leverage available resources. This article discusses the benefits of a hybrid course, as well as its design and implementation at a large, public university. In addition, for universities that use the introduction to risk and insurance course as a significant course for attracting majors, we identify the benefits for students from the use of hybrid courses, such as the variety of materials and activities utilized, as well as the flexibility in scheduling. This information may be useful in marketing the course so that it will be immediately attractive to students.     

Ambush marketing: The ethical issues

Ambush marketing is now, for some companies, a strategic alternative to formal association through the purchase of legitimate sponsorship rights. Research evidence indicates that this ambush activity may damage sponsors' events and even the interests of sports governing bodies and individual sports people. Legal issues clearly arise, but the body of case law is as yet slight. Discussion often focuses on property rights, but these too can be problematic if a major sports event of popular cultural significance is concerned. Four ethical perspectives—utilitarianism, duty-based ethics, stakeholder analysis, and virtue ethics—can provide a framework for the debate on the ethics of ambush marketing. A range of possible actions to create more ethical commercial sponsorship are identified and briefly evaluated. In particular an international code of conduct for event sponsorship seems to be an idea whose time has come. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change

The concept of land use transition highlights that land use change is non-linear and is associated with other societal and biophysical system changes. A transition in land use is not a fixed pattern, nor is it deterministic. Land use transitions can be caused by negative socio-ecological feedbacks that arise from a depletion of key resources or from socio-economic change and innovation that take place rather independently from the ecological system. Here, we explore whether the sources of land use transitions are mostly endogenous socio-ecological forces or exogenous socio-economic factors. We first review a few generic pathways of forest transition as identified in national case studies, and evaluate the varying ecological quality of expanding forests associated with these pathways. We then discuss possible explanatory frameworks of land use transitions. We use the case of the recent forest transition in Vietnam as an illustration. Socio-ecological feedbacks seem to better explain a slowing down of deforestation and stabilization of forest cover, while exogenous socio-economic factors better account for reforestation. We conclude by discussing the prospects of accelerating land use transitions in tropical forest countries.