El efecto de la volatilidad del peso mexicano en los rendimientos y riesgo de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores

The effect of heavy tails due to rare events and different levels of asymmetry associated with high volatility clustering in the emerging financial markets requires sophisticated models for statistical modelling of such stylized facts. This article applies extreme value theory (EVT) to quantify tail risk on the daily returns of Mexican stock market under aggregation of foreign exchange rate risk from January 1971 to December 2010. This study focuses on the maximum-block method and generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) to model the asymptotic behavior of extreme returns in US dollars. The empirical results show that EVT-Based VaR measured at high confidence levels performs better than simulation historical and delta-normal VaR models on capturing fat-tails in the returns of highly volatile stock markets. Additionally, international investors holding long positions in Mexican stock market are more prone to experience larger potential losses than investors with short positions during local currency depreciation and financial crisis periods.     

¿Han sido el IBEX35 y el IPC definiciones financieramente eficientes del portafolio de mercado?

The present paper questions the financial efficiency of the most used market portfolio proxies in Spain and Mexico (IBEX35 and IPC) in order to determine if these can be considered a proper market portfolio proxy. The paper questions if they can be used as “neutrals”, according to Black & Litterman (1992) proposals in portfolio management. For this purpose, two discrete event simulations that use the Markowtiz-Tobin-Sharpe-Linter model (Markowitz, 1987, p.5) are performed with monthly data of the stock members of these indices in a February 2001 to December 2010 time window. The results are compared by using the Sharpe ratio (Sharpe, 1966) and show that the equilibrium assumptions in the market do not hold, leading to conclude that these market portfolio proxies are inefficient.     

Pricing Participating Inflation Retirement Funds Through Option Modeling and Copulas

Abstract

Pension plans and life insurances offering minimum performance guarantees are very common worldwide. In the Brazilian market, the customers of a common type of defined contribution plan have the right to receive, over their savings, the positive difference between the return of a specified investment fund, usually a fixed income fund, and the minimum guaranteed rate, commonly defined as the composition of a fixed interest rate and a floating inflation rate. This instrument can be characterized as an option to exchange one asset, the minimum guaranteed rate, for another, the return of the specified investment fund. In this paper we provide a closed formula to evaluate this liability that depends on two stochastic rates assuming bivariate normality. We also explore the use of copulas for the modeling of the dependence structure and price the options using Monte Carlo simulation to compare the effects of the copula specification in their values. An application with real data is provided. The model makes use of a one-factor Vasicek framework for the term structures of interest rate and inflation rate.     

Banking competition and economic growth: cross-country evidence

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of banking competition on industry economic growth using both structural measures of competition and measures based on the new empirical industrial organisation perspective. The evidence obtained in the period 1993–2003 for a sample of 53 sectors in 21 countries indicates that financial development promotes economic growth. The results also show that bank monopoly power has an inverted-U-shaped effect on economic growth, suggesting that bank market power has its highest growth effect at intermediate values. The latter result is consistent with the literature on relationship lending, which argues that bank competition can have a negative effect on the availability of finance for companies that are informationally more opaque.     

Sustainability: The search for the integral worldview

The sustainability problem is described as a process of recurrent destabilization of societal value orientations or worldviews. These worldviews represent both value orientations with respect to ‘quality of life’ and mental maps about the surrounding world. The many different worldviews which shape society appear to be part of an overall integral worldview which can be deduced from societal enquiries and from the experiences of history and philosophy over many centuries. This integral worldview is defined by the vertical contrast between idealism and materialism and the horizontal contrast between uniformity and diversity. Due to a number of societal and psychological centrifugal forces, worldviews become one-sided and finally end in fundamentalist value orientations which are synonym with overshoot, collapse and crisis. Examples are religious fundamentalism and related wars, communism, nazism, the ecological crisis as well as the recent financial crisis.The solution to these sustainability problems has to be found in the timely recognition and compensation of the destabilizing centrifugal forces. The resulting integral worldview is synonym with ‘human dignity’. The thus defined time independent notion of human dignity defines a new ethical framework and solves the paradox between the needs of present and future generations in Brundtland's original definition of sustainable development.     

Governance of flexible mobile service platforms

Development of advanced mobile Internet services requires flexible service platforms. Every service offering needs generic functionalities like security, billing and customer data management. Such functionalities used to be integrated in the mobile network infrastructure but are now offered by competing service platforms. Future service platforms might be offered by operators but can also be embedded in the mobile phone or at the systems of the service providers. Studying flexibility of service platforms requires technological as well as strategic analysis, and should take into account the perspective of multiple stakeholders. Where to locate service platforms is not just a technological matter as it greatly influences flexibility of both service providers and end-users. This paper analyzes how various service platform technologies that are located at operators, mobile phone and service providers influence flexibility. We find that no single service platform offers superior flexibility to both service providers and end-users.     

Where firms choose to disclose voluntary environmental information

Corporate environmental performance is of increasing importance to investors, public policy makers and the general public. Firms disclose environmental information (mostly) voluntarily in their annual reports and on their websites. These disclosures are important, because they provide environmental performance information and influence capital markets. We compare environmental disclosure in annual reports and on websites with a long-term (bad) and a short-term (crisis) environmental performance measure. We find evidence to support our hypotheses that different levels of environmental disclosure are made in annual reports and on websites under different conditions. More specifically, firms disclose more environmental information on their websites when faced with an environmental crisis and more in their annual reports when they have a bad environmental reputation.     

Bank-Specific Daily Interest Rate Adjustment in the Dutch Mortgage Market

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the interest rate setting behavior of the four largest banks in the Dutch mortgage market, using advertised interest rates at a daily frequency. The evidence for the long run pricing behaviour suggests that the banks operate in a competitive environment as they base their interest rates on funding cost. However, two banks appear to be less cost sensitive than the others. In the short run, most of the banks adjust their rates less strongly to funding cost increases than to decreases, which suggests competitive pressures. For one bank significant evidence is found for a quicker response to negative than to positive deviations of actual from desired interest rates.     

Using industry momentum to improve portfolio performance

Minimum-variance portfolios, which ignore the mean and focus on the (co)variances of asset returns, outperform mean–variance approaches in out-of-sample tests. Despite these promising results, minimum-variance policies fail to deliver a superior performance compared with the simple 1/N rule. In this paper, we propose a parametric portfolio policy that uses industry return momentum to improve portfolio performance. Our portfolio policies outperform a broad selection of established portfolio strategies in terms of Sharpe ratio and certainty equivalent returns. The proposed policies are particularly suitable for investors because portfolio turnover is only moderately increased compared to standard minimum-variance portfolios.