Spurious Rejections by Perron Tests in the Presence of a Break

In this paper, we concentrate on the case of an exogeneously chosen break date, but entertain the possibility that an incorrect choice is made. In fact, the Perron test statistics considered are invariant to any break in the generating process at the assumed break date. Our results therefore apply equally to the case of a generating process with two breaks, only one of which is specifically accounted for in the analysis. As in Leybourne et al . (1998), we find that a neglected relatively early break can lead to spurious rejections of the unit root null hypothesis. Moreover, for all but one of the tests analyzed, spurious rejections now also arise if a true break occurs relatively soon after the assumed break date.     

Mental Health and Wellbeing and Unemployment

This article examines the relationship between mental health and wellbeing and unemployment utilising the 1995 National Health Survey (1995 NHS) and the 1997 National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing of Adults (1997 SMHWB) data sets. Three indicators of mental health and wellbeing are adopted. The first is a psychological wellbeing measure derived from responses to questions included in the 1995 NHS on time felt down, happy, peaceful, and nervous (the SF-36 mental health scale). The second indicator relates to diagnoses of mental disorders including substance use disorders, affective disorders and anxiety disorders. Our final indicator relates to suicidal thoughts and plans and (unsuccessful) suicide attempts. On the basis of these measures, unemployed persons exhibit poorer mental health and wellbeing outcomes than the full-time employed.     

An Evaluation of Inertia Models of Unemployment

Two approaches have been used to model unemployment. The first, conventional, approach involves linking the unemployment outcome to observed indices of productivity, structural factors and discrimination such as educational attainment, location and birthplace. The second approach, the inertia model, involves using a person's labour market history as a way of including in unemployment models information on the 'unobservables' that influence employability. This paper evaluates the performance of both models of unemployment. The results provide unambiguous support for the inertia model when modelling unemployment. The inertia model has higher explanatory power, higher within-sample prediction rate success and fewer out-of-sample forecasting errors than the conventional model. The estimates from the inertia model can be used to provide quite accurate predictions of the risk of becoming unemployed. This is important if individuals at high risk of becoming unemployed are to be targeted for labour market assistance.     

Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach

In a panel of European countries, we analyse paper products, sawnwood and wood panels consumption data. With this object, we use a classical demand model where national consumption depends on real GDP and real prices. In contrast to previous panel estimations in the literature, we highlight non-stationarity time series which can lead to spurious regressions. We explicitly take into account the issue by using recent panel cointegration techniques. Cointegration is present for printing paper and fibreboard, though less clear cut for other products. Then we estimate demand elasticities and find that GDP elasticities are significantly lower than estimates from the literature. Finally, we simulate the implications of modified demand elasticities by using a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. For most products, changes in elasticities would lead to lower projected demand and lower prices over a 20-year time horizon. Lower demand for solid wood and wood fibre would lead to less tensions with fuel wood- and wood-based chemical markets. In a context of rising interest for renewable bio-based products, updated long-term demand models contribute to the analysis of the forest sector’s sustainability.     

Impact of individual market orientation on selling and customer orientation

ABSTRACT

We analyze the direct effect of individual market orientation on selling orientation-customer orientation of corporate insurance agents licensed in an emerging market based on the data collected using a random survey of corporate insurance agents in the Life Insurance sector in India. The results indicated that individual market orientation had a significant relationship with selling orientation, but the intensity was weak. However, causal relationship between individual market orientation and customer orientation was moderate. Future research should focus on analyzing the influence of the dimensions of individual market orientation on employee commitment, loyalty and should analyze the moderating effects of various associated variables. The findings indicate that efforts should be made to generate market-oriented behavior among individuals to propel selling orientation and customer orientation.     

Small Firms in Regional Clusters: Local Networks and Internationalization in the Southern Hemisphere

This paper reports on a three‐country comparative study examining the internationalization of family winemakers in distinct regional wine clusters of Argentina, Chile, and New Zealand. In‐depth interviews were conducted with owner–operators, to understand the drivers and barriers to internationalization of their businesses. Key findings reveal that while size and age are not determinants of the ability or propensity to export wine, the existence of an independent industry body has a positive impact and greatly speeds up the internationalization process, providing an effective route for small firms to establish their very often, relatively unknown brand(s) in lucrative foreign markets.     

Participatory budgeting,community engagement and impact on public services in Scotland

ABSTRACT

The institutional engagement and analysis needed to effectively integrate the requirements of equality legislation into participatory budgeting (PB) processes requires a transformational approach. Equality processes appear to exist in parallel with PB activity, rather than being operationalized as integral to the objectives and character of PB activity at local level. This paper proposes that PB and the Public Sector Equality Duty (PSED) in the Equality Act 2010 share a transformative intent and potential, but that this is undermined by siloed thinking on equalities and enduring discriminatory behaviour and practices. The paper concludes with propositions for aligning the conceptual links between equality and community empowerment and, thereby, participation in local financial decision-making in practice.