A Markov–switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component. The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate the advantages of generating regime dependent responses. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001     

Heterogeneity of southern countries and southern intellectual property rights policy

Abstract.  We develop a model with one innovating northern firm and heterogeneous southern firms that compete in a final product market. We assume southern firms differ in their ability to adapt technology and study southern incentives to protect intellectual property rights. We find that, in a non-cooperative equilibrium, governments resist IPR protection, but collectively southern countries benefit from some protection. We show that, in general, countries with more efficient firms prefer higher collective IPR protection than those with less efficient firms. Given the aggregate level of IPR protection, it is more efficient if the more efficient countries have weaker IPR protection.     

Job security regulations and the dynamic demand for industrial labor in India and Zimbabwe

Government permission is required to dismiss or lay off even a single worker in India and Zimbabwe. Dynamic labor demand equations, derived from a CES cost minimization model, are estimated for 64 manufacturing industries in these two countries. The data reveal a substantial reduction in demand for workers but no slowing in adjustment of number of employees following enactment of the labor laws. In India, no comparable reduction in labor demand occurred in small scale plants uncovered by the job security regulations. Among larger Indian plants, the drop in labor demand is estimated to be largest in industries where: coverage of the legislation is more extensive, private ownership dominates, and there are fewer union members.     

Stock-flow matching and the performance of the labor market

We estimate outflow equations for vacancies and unemployed workers in Britain, departing from the stock-based analysis of matching in two ways. First, we deal with the temporal aggregation problem that arises when discrete time data are used to describe continuous time processes. Second, we allow for a stock-flow matching mechanism in which the stock of traders on one side of the market matches with the flow of traders on the other side. Our estimates are in line with the predictions of stock-flow matching in terms of higher exit rates of flows and of matching combinations between labor market stocks and flows. Furthermore, employer search effectiveness did not seem to decline between the 1960s and the 1990s. Nevertheless, some deterioration in worker search effectiveness is detected, however less severe than that implied by previous, stock-based work.     

Modelling Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Contingent Valuation: an Application to the Valuation of Informal Care

Both the lack of market data and the need to adopt a more holistic approach in the valuation of non‐market activities within health care have pointed towards the use of contingent valuation (CV) methods. However, to date, few studies have employed such techniques to value informal care, despite its provision being an important public policy question. We propose an analytical framework that through the use of random parameters models and respondents' certainty scales can incorporate both unobserved and observed heterogeneity in the CV modelling. This is the first CV study of informal care for Scotland (UK) and a £7.68 per hour value is estimated.     

Transaction utility effects when quality is uncertain

The existing literature finds that price discrepancy, which represents the difference between expected and observed price, helps explain brand choice and purchase intention. This effect is often attributed to transaction utility, that is, the incremental utility associated with the surprise of observing a price lower or higher than expected. This research considers the possibility, however, that transaction utility is a less important determinant of choice when quality is uncertain. We propose and find that acquisition utility (perceived value for the money) tends to dominate the explanation of purchase intention, but transaction utility is significant only when consumers are more certain about quality. Our discussion considers the relative role of transaction utility in explaining consumer decision making and how the informative and allocative roles of price might be distinguished. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from Ohio State University and his B.S. from Ohio State University. His research interests include information economics and pricing. Previously, he taught at the University of South Carolina. He has published in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, andJournal of Retailing, among others. He received his Ph.D. at the University of South Carolina, his M.B.A. from the University of Georgia, and a B.S. degree from Clemson University. Previously, he taught at the University of Alabama. His research interests include consumer perceptions of value and interpersonal influences. He has published in theJournal of Consumer Research and theJournal of Marketing Research, among others. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from the University of South Carolina and has a Bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Delhi. His research interests include price bundling, price effects on perceived quality perceptions, and segmentation of business-to-business markets. He has published in theJournal of Business Research and theAdvances in Consumer Research series, published by the Association of Consumer Research. He previously taught on the faculty of Valdosta State University. She received a B.S. in statistics, a Ph.D. in marketing from the University of South Carolina, and a M.S. in statistics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute. She previously taught at Lehigh University. Her research interests include market segmentation, discrete data analysis, and pricing. She has published in theJournal of Marketing Research, as well as in theProceedings of the American Marketing Association and theAssociation for Consumer Research.     

When consumers complain: A path analysis of the key antecedents of consumer complaint response estimates

When do consumers complain? This study probes this question by developing a conceptual framework that includes multiple theoretical perspectives, empirically testing a portion of the proposed model, and using dissatisfaction/complaint data from three different service industries. The hypothesized model uses multidimensional consumer complaint response estimates including voice, private, and third-party responses as dependent variables. Results support several proposed relationships, provide a high level of explained variance, and indicate a moderating role for dissatisfaction intensity. The complaint response estimates are characterized by disparate influence pathways, and expectancy value judgments emerge as critical determinants with positive and negative crossover effects. Attitude toward complaining is more dominant under low dissatisfaction intensity than it is under the high dissatisfaction condition. Important differences emerge across service categories. Implications of this work for managers and researchers in understanding when consumers complain are enumerated.     

Hierarchical Arrow Social Welfare Functions

Supported by SNF Grant No: DMS 8803556.