A curtailed test for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution

Summary A procedure is proposed in this paper for testing the shape parameter, of the Weibull distribution. The test statistic which is based on the extremal quotient, possesses a monotone property which makes it possible for rejection earlier than the last planned observation of the null hypothesis,H ₀: =₀ when the alternative hypothesis isH _a: <₀ and early acceptance ofH ₀ whenH _a: >₀. The test being scale-free, does not require the scale parameter to be known.     

Einige Bemerkungen zur statistischen Messung der Konzentration

Zusammenfassung Nach einer kritischen Analyse der Begriffe „absolute“ und „relative“ Konzentration werden einige Kriterien gegeben, die Ma?zahlen der absoluten oder der relativen Konzentration zu erfüllen haben. Hierauf wird untersucht, inwieweit die gebr?uchlichsten Ma?zahlen der Konzentration (Gini, Herfindahl, Münzner) diese Kriterien erfüllen. Dann wird gezeigt, da? sich eine vonAdam angegebene, sehr allgemeine Klasse von Ma?zahlen als Ma?zahlen der absoluten Konzentration qualifizieren; einige wichtige Spezialf?lle werden genauer untersucht. Im vorletzten Teil der Arbeit werden Ma?zahlen für die Ver?nderung der Konzentration diskutiert und schlie?lich an einem praktischen Beispiel erprobt.

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Summary After analysing the concepts of “absolute concentration” versus “relative concentration”, some criteria for coefficients of concentration are given to qualify them either as measures for absolute or for relative concentration. On the basis of these criteria, some well-known coefficients (Gini, Herfindahl, Münzner) are examined. Furthermore, it is shown that the measures of “predictivity” as given byAdam can be regarded as coefficients of absolute concentration; some important special cases (one of which the Herfindahl index) are investigated. Finally, measures for the change in concentration are developed and applied to a practical example.

     

Ein verallgemeinerter Geburten- und Todesprozeß zur Erklärung der Entwicklung des deutschen Volkseinkommens, 1851–1939

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The occurrence of outliers in the explanatory variable considered in an errors-in-variables framework

Summary The problem of estimating the slope of a linear relationship between two jointly normally distributed random variables is considered when outliers may occur in the explanatory variable. It will be studied as a special case of an errors-in-variables problem where the explanatory variable is measured which a nonnormally distributed error. In this more general model and under certain conditions a consistent estimator can be given with a normal limiting distribution. Applications to cases of outliers in the explanatory variable will be presented.     

A model of the Dutch labour market (AMO-K)

Summary So far, the labour market has not received any special attention from macro-econometric model builders. In this article an attempt has been made to describe the labour market in detail, paying attention to such important phenomena as the friction between labour supply and demand, the heterogeneity of labour, the dependence of labour supply on the labour-market situation, the Phillips mechanism and the impact of real wages on labour demand. To make it suitable for policy simulations, the model has been extended to a complete macro-econometric model, taking account of the fact that both labour and capital limit the production possibilities.This paper summarises an extensive Dutch report on the construction of a model for the Netherlands labour market. The title of the original report is AMO-K: Een arbeidsmarktmodel met twee categorieën arbeid; (AMO-K, A labour-market model with two categories of labour) ; it was published by the Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in Rotterdam in the so-called Olive Series, 1982-2, pp. 403ff. Some details of the model presented in that report were changed after its publication; see G. den Broeder, AMO-K 81-12, Tussenrapport betreffende de verdere ontwikkeling van het arbeidsmarktmodel (Interim report on the further development of the labourmarket model), Rotterdam, September 1983. Since then, only minor changes have been carried through. The model reproduced in this paper is the modified version. The model was developed within the National Programme of Labour-Market Research (NPAO) (now defunct), the NPAO organisation having granted a commission to the NEI in Rotterdam.     

Markov-Chain Analysis of Internal Manpower Supply

The separation of manpower forecasting into a demand forecast and a supply forecast emphasizes that each depends on quite different sources of information. The demand forecast is based primarily on an estimate of sales, which is then transformed into the number and type of personnel needed to produce and sell the company's products. The information for forecasting internal supply can often be treated as if it were independent of the external environment and is often available within the firm. If a matrix representing the probability of transition from one job classification to another can be prepared for the relevant classifications, Markov-chain theory can be used to generate a forecast of internal manpower supply.