The challenge of the future and the institutionalization of interdisciplinarity: notes on Herman Kahn’s legacy

This article is an attempt to explore Herman Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he called “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis. In Kahn’s view, decision making and policy processes pose two crucial problems that the scholarly research is rarely forced to face: (1) the need to have and operate with a broad, multifaceted vision of phenomena and (2) the issue of coping imaginatively and realistically with future circumstances and conditions that can only vaguely be distinguished in the present. Implied in these two is the need to develop new methods and approaches fitted to the charges imposed by them. The paper discusses Kahn’s work as an integrated solution to these problems: The definition and advocacy of broad and future-oriented studies, his concept on how these studies should be institutionalized in interdisciplinary organizational systems, and the crucial position scenarios and propaedeutic and heuristic methodologies have in this context. A special attention is given to two methodological approaches he developed to cope with these challenges: Scenario Building and the Method of Classes of Variables.When twenty years ago, on July 7, 1983, Herman Kahn died suddenly at age 61, both friends and intellectual adversaries recognized that “the world lost one of its most creative and best minds” [1] and [2]. By that time Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent and best known Futures Studies scholars, a founding father of the field, with extensive and vital contributions in Strategic Studies, an area where he was also considered a founding figure and a leader [3] and [4]. His work was followed all over the world and the directions he traced in the public debate on very sensitive issues of crucial public concern have continued to be unaltered today, twenty years after his unexpected and premature death. Yet in spite of the incessant influence of his arguments and ideas, today his intellectual legacy is still to be accounted for and the breath and depth of his contributions are still to be reviewed and analyzed in a systematic way. This paper is an attempt to explore only one dimensions of this legacy: Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he liked to call “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis.The two decades that have passed since his death allow us today to approach his work undisturbed by the “sound and fury” of the many public debates and controversies he participated in and to focus on some of the deepest and most enduring dimensions of his intellectual contributions. However while doing that, we should keep in mind that for Kahn the public policy process shaping the future and the public debate associated to it were always the focal points and the ultimate ends of his efforts. Indeed, probably the best approach to Kahn’s work is to see it in the light of his continuous concern for the practical relevance of the social research. For him the research process was always action-oriented and its ultimate test was its relevance for policy and social action. As a result, the most promising starting point for any overview of Kahn’s thought and work should be a set of crucial conclusions he reached about the policy making process and decision makers early in his career.     

Globalisation and the environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labour and energy demand

This paper examines the effect of the structural changes arising from the globalisation of production and innovation and from technological changes on the environment. Drawing on theories of international production from international business and innovation, we assess the impact of long-term technological change and changes in international production on the international division of labour and energy demand. We select two industrial sectors with different technological characteristics (the textile, clothing and footwear sector and the chemical sector). We examine the effects of the globalisation of production and of technological change on these two sectors on the level of industrial production and resource intensity in different regions and countries over the last 30 years. We speculate on the impact of globalisation of production and innovation in future pervasive technologies—information technology, biotechnology and nano-technology. The implications of these developments on industrial greenhouse gases emissions are assessed.     

A Consumer-Based Approach to Designing Product Line Extensions

A high proportion of new product introductions entail line extensions (e.g., new flavors, sizes, convenience packs, features) rather than totally new products. An attendant problem with line extending involves the possibility of cannibalization of the firm's current products. Paul Green and Abba Krieger describe an approach for designing line extensions that employs consumer tradeoff data and a variety of search heuristics to find "optimal" extensions that explicitly consider the cannibalization of current offerings. The methodology is applied to a case in which an agricultural chemicals firm is introducing a new soybean herbicide.     

The importance of being first : The case of prescription drugs in Canada

There is a growing literature on the importance of being first, which suggests that where there is uncertainty about the product quality of late entrants' brands the pioneering brand will retain a competitive advantage. This is consistent with studies of the U.S. drug industry. Using Canadian data for the drug industry it is shown that eliminating quality differences is a necessary but not sufficient condition for late entrants to gain market share. In addition, price competition has to be stimulated. Under these conditions the late entrants have taken up to 100 percent of the pioneering brands market.     

Why we hate performance management—And why we should love it

Individual performance is a building block of organizational success. Not surprisingly, virtually all organizations have in place some type of performance management system. Yet, managers and employees are equally skeptical that performance management adds value; usually, it is seen as a waste of time and resources. We argue that the potential benefits of performance management are not realized because most systems focus exclusively on narrow and evaluative aspects such as performance appraisal. Herein, we offer a broader view of performance management, including discussion of how it differs from performance appraisal. We highlight specific and important benefits of performance management for employees, managers, and organizations. We also describe research-based conclusions regarding how performance management systems should be designed and implemented to realize these benefits. We hope our article will demonstrate that well-constructed performance management systems should not be hated, but rather embraced.     

野狼也温柔从创意到品牌大理想

故事发生在积雪覆顶的雪山上,一个迷路的旅行者在寒冷的暴风雪中苦苦寻找一个落脚点,沿途一直有野狼紧随其后、伺机而动。饥寒交迫中,他终于忍不住而晕倒在地。狼群奔向晕倒的旅行者,静静地依偎在他身上、为他取暖。“不是非要相识,才能相拥入怀。”     

Why Many Chinese Look Unhappy？

<正>I agree that many Chinese look unhappy,but I decided that they were just relaxed, when the muscles to change the expression are not used at all.For many cult...     

Volatility due to offshoring: Theory and evidence

Existing models of offshoring are not equipped to explain how global production sharing affects the volatility of economic activity. This paper develops a trade model that can account for why offshoring industries in low wage countries such as Mexico experience fluctuations in employment that are twice as large as in high wage countries such as the United States. We argue that a key to explaining this outcome is that the extensive margin of offshoring responds endogenously to shocks in demand and transmits those shocks across borders in an amplified manner. Empirical evidence supports the claim that the extensive margin of offshoring is an active margin of adjustment, and quantitative simulation experiments show that the degree of movement of this margin in the data is sufficient to explain relative employment volatility in Mexico and the U.S.     

What Influences Trader Choice of Electronic versus Intermediated Execution?

We examine the determinants of US equity trader choice of electronic versus intermediated execution. While traders exhibit a strong overall preference for automation, when the market is less liquid at order submission time, traders seek market maker automated and human order‐matching services more often. Traders' overall tendency to choose intermediaries is highly correlated with their demand for liquidity. Market maker participation rates are higher for more active and larger size traders. Traders who choose intermediaries more often trade more stocks, execute orders quicker, price orders more aggressively, and disperse their trading over longer periods of time. Although US stock intermediaries continue to lose market share, our results highlight the important role these firms can play in an increasingly automated, electronically driven marketplace.