Are bygones not bygones? Modeling price-level targeting with an escape clause and lessons from the gold standard

Like the gold standard, price-level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I and resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity) is reviewed. It suggests that, in practice, PT might operate with an escape clause that would allow rebasing of the price target in the face of large shocks. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we show that such an escape clause can produce multiple equilibria. For some parameterizations, there is a low credibility equilibrium (with high expectation of a reset) associated with high output volatility and frequent resets. These problems reduce, or reverse, the expectational advantage PT has over inflation targeting.     

Scientific and technological interactions between Russia and Ukraine: Forecasting opportunities and mechanisms for their implementation

The paper presents the research results of an investigation into the state of scientific, technological, trade and economic interactions between Russia and Ukraine in terms of their potential, prospects, and problems impeding their cooperation. It is shown that there is a considerable scientific and technological potential both in Russia and Ukraine. Opportunities and conditions for the modernization of both countries’ economies are shown to depend on the coordinated use of their potentials.     

Are we operating effectively? A lean analysis of operating theatre changeovers

Hospital operating theatres are a critical but costly resource in healthcare processes. Their efficiency and utilisation impact upon hospital finances, clinical effectiveness and patient outcomes. Operations management techniques have now been applied widely to optimise flow. An important challenge is to balance the needs of process flexibility, efficiency and work standardisation with clinical requirements. This paper applies operations management methods to analyse elective orthopaedic surgery at five international hospitals to describe the issues that affect operating theatre productivity. It utilises an innovative method of video analysis to observe patient changeovers over 29 days of surgery and data is analysed to understand the causes of variability and waste. The findings suggest that processes which are standardised via operations management methodologies can improve productivity in a process that exhibits wide variation in practice. There are apparent trade-offs associated with efficiency and clinical concerns such infection control, that lead to different standard process archetypes being utilised. Recommendations for standardising patient changeovers are provided.     

Increasing the Informational Content of Reach and Frequency Estimates

This article discusses the limitations of present methods of analyzing the coverage of advertising schedules and presents a technique for obtaining additional information from traditional measures of schedule coverage. This technique models entire patters of audience exposure to commercials by means of a compound Bernoulli distribution that can be estimated from reach and frequency data. Knowledge of the complete pattern of audience exposure to advertising schedules assists the media analyst in selecting optimally effective advertising schedules and consequently enhances the probability of conducting a successful advertising campaign.     

Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis

The author explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Although oil-price shocks are the most commonly cited examples of aggregate supply shocks, they violate the model's assumption of constant relative prices (as acknowledged by the label, “oil-price shocks”). The resulting problems are effectively masked in textbook presentations by implicitly assuming that the supply shocks occur in a closed economy. However, the typical discussion is glaringly inaccurate when discussing the effects of oil-price shocks on oil-rich countries. Thus, the cogency of the standard model's representation of oil-price shocks on open economies is compromised. A simple modification of the model that differentiates between production and absorption goods enables it to better reflect the effects of oil-price shocks on open economies.     

Internationalization of private firms: environmental turbulence and organizational strategies and resources

Profiles of exporting and superior-performing private small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are presented. Multivariate regression evidence suggests that SMEs focusing upon an offensive and market differentiation strategy of product/service protection is associated with the propensity and the intensity of exporting. Exporting SMEs are also associated with younger and manufacturing firms as well as firms with product or service quality and/or technology resources. The perceptions by SMEs of external environmental turbulence were not significantly associated with the exporting-dependent variables. Most notably, variables associated with exporting SMEs are not the same as those associated with superior firm performance. Moreover, exporting firms did not report superior levels of performance. Implications for policy-makers, practitioners and researchers are discussed.     

The Relationship Between Economic Understanding and the Social Studies Curriculum

Much research is needed to determine the extent to which the high school social studies curriculum, and certain courses within that curriculum, contribute toward economic understanding. Boddy and Tocco report on their attempt to assess the social studies curriculum in Southwest Florida. They also single out one required course, Americanism vs. Communism, which was designed to “emphasize the free-enterprise-competitive economy of the United States,” and measure its impact on a sample of high school seniors. The findings are not encouraging. Although this study applies to one limited geographic area, others may find it interesting because it suggests the need for similar research in other parts of the nation.     

Graduate overeducation as a sheepskin effect: evidence from Northern Ireland

This article examines the nature of graduate overeducation amongst a group of applicants to a graduate conversion programme. It was found that while a substantial proportion of earnings differentials were associated with a mismatch between individual skill levels and job requirements, wage gaps were still likely to occur should such mismatches be eliminated. The evidence suggests that graduate wage levels are heavily related to sheepskin effects associated with the attainment of jobs with graduate level entry requirements. These sheepskin effects suggest that the process of job categorization is arbitrary in nature, with stated job requirements somewhat independent of actual skill requirements. The analysis suggests that graduate overeduction is better understood within the context of both skill and categorization mismatches as opposed to skill matches alone.