The behaviour of seasonal unit root tests under neglected local drifts

This paper analyses the limit distributions of the seasonal unit root test procedures proposed by Dickey, Hasza and Fuller (1984) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990), when local trends at different frequencies are present in data generation processes, but ignored in the test regressions used. The findings presented explicitly show that neglected deterministic trends have negative effects on the distributions of the test statistics. Analytical observations and Monte Carlo simulations reveal that seasonal unit root test statistics become severely undersized as the values of standardized local trends increase. Hence, failure to consider local trends may often bear the undesirable effect of biasing decisions towards non-rejection of unit roots.Received: February 2001, Accepted: September 2001, JEL Classification: C12, C22Paulo M. M. Rodrigues: I am thankful to two anonymous referees for their detailed and useful comments and suggestions.     

Arbitrage, equilibrium, and gains from trade: A counterexample

We present a counterexample to a theorem due to Chichilnisky (Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 1993, 29, 189–207; American Economic Review, 1994, 84, 427–434). Chichilnisky's theorem states that her condition of limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of an equilibrium in an economy with unbounded short sales. Our counterexample shows that the condition defined by Chichilnisky is not sufficient for existence of equilibrium. We also discuss difficulties in Chichilnisky (Economic Theory, 1995, 5, 79–107).     

Unveiling investor-induced channels of financial contagion in the 2008 financial crisis using copulas

Understanding how financial crises spread is important for policy-makers and regulators in order to take adequate measures to prevent or contain the spread of these crises. This paper will test whether there was contagion of the subprime financial crisis to the European stock markets of the NYSE Euronext group (Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Portugal) and, if evidence of contagion is found, it will determine the investor-induced channels through which the crisis propagated. We will use copula models for this purpose. After assessing whether there is evidence of financial contagion in the stock markets, we will examine whether the ‘wealth constraints’ transmission mechanism prevails over the ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel. An additional test looks at the interaction between stock and bond markets during the crisis and allows us to determine if the transmission occurred due to the ‘cross market rebalancing’ channel or the ‘flying to quality’ phenomenon. The tests suggest that (i) financial contagion is present in all analyzed stock markets, (ii) a ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel is the most important crisis transmission mechanism, (iii) and the ‘flight-to-quality’ phenomenon is also present in all analyzed stock markets.     

Trademarks and British dominance in consumer goods, 1876–1914

Late Victorian Britain was very important in the development of British dominance in light consumer goods industries, such as fermented liquors and spirits; detergents and perfumery; bicycles and other carriages; paper, stationery, and bookbinding; and games of all kinds and sports goods. Firms developed technology‐based innovations and marketing‐based innovations, creating abnormal peaks of trademark registrations in certain industries. This article investigates those peaks and shows that factors usually pointed out as explaining British economic decline in heavy industries did not impact on the development of light consumer goods industries, and on the contrary encouraged their fast growth during this period. Trademark registrations are shown to provide new insights into the debate on British relative decline, when combined with other industry and firm‐level data.     

Real wages and labor-saving technical change: evidence from a panel of manufacturing industries in mature and labor-surplus economies

Recent theories have provided a persuasive account of a key stylized fact of mature economies: the common long-run trends of average real wages and labor productivity, and the ensuing stationarity of functional distribution. Central to these theories is the notion of directed technical change, which claims that a rise in labor costs sparks the adoption of labor-saving innovations. This paper empirically examines a core prediction of these theories, namely that shocks to functional distribution elicit compensatory adjustments in real product wages and labor productivity. Using two disaggregated data-sets of manufacturing industries (EU-Klems and Unido), I find evidence of cointegration and two-way, long-run Granger causality between these two variables. These findings suggest that directed technical change is indeed key for producing stationarity in functional distribution, and they complement the recent empirical literature on distributive cycles and productivity growth. Preliminary evidence from the Unido data-set also suggests the importance of directed technical change in developing countries. To illuminate the empirical procedure, I present a theoretical model of growth and distribution with directed technical change.     

Oligopoly, open shop unions and trade liberalisation

In an international duopoly model, we investigate how trade liberalisation impacts on collective bargaining outcomes when workers are represented by open shop unions. We find that, with intermediate levels of union density, trade liberalisation may lead to higher negotiated wages even if no trade occurs in equilibrium. In addition, we show that union wages may be higher with free trade than in autarky.     

Consistency of beliefs and epistemic conditions for Nash and correlated equilibria

A consistency condition (action-consistency) on the interim beliefs of players in a game is introduced. Action-consistency is weaker than common priors and, unlike common priors, is characterized by a “no-bets” condition on verifiable events. Using action-consistency, we provide epistemic conditions to Nash and correlated equilibria weakening the common knowledge restrictions in Aumann and Brandenburger [Aumann, R., Brandenburger, A., 1995. Epistemic conditions for Nash equilibrium. Econometrica 63, 1161–1180] and Aumann [Aumann, R., 1987. Correlated equilibrium as an expression of Bayesian rationality. Econometrica 55, 1–18].     

On the genericity of full surplus extraction in mechanism design

Heifetz and Neeman [A. Heifetz, Z. Neeman, On the generic (im)possibility of full surplus extraction, Econometrica 74 (2006) 213-233], using convex combinations of models, showed that full surplus extraction (FSE) in mechanism design is generically impossible, contrary to the seminal work of Cremer and McLean [J. Cremer, R. McLean, Full extraction of the surplus in Bayesian and dominant strategy auctions, Econometrica 53 (1988) 345-361]. Since Cremer and McLean did not allow convex combinations of models, the two results are not comparable. We show that FSE is generically impossible when convex combinations of models are not allowed, provided that we do not hold fixed the cardinality of models.     

Designing management control in hybrid organizations: The role of path creation and morphogenesis

Path-creating change in organizational form is proposed as an important element in achieving management control in hybrid organizations. Using case examples from large-scale projects in the architectural, engineering, and construction industry, as well as from joint ventures in the oil and gas industry, we highlight the role of mindfully synthesizing new organizational forms in the design of management control systems. A series of paradoxes is disclosed, in which attempts to achieve control through mimetic adoption of established management control techniques lead to reduced control. On the other hand, path-creating deviations from institutionalized practices, resulted in improved project and venture performance. It has been argued that the design of inter-organizational management control systems seeks to enable organizations to compete for resources and efficiency, and also to obtain institutional legitimacy. Institutional theory proposes that isomorphism permits organizations to obtain that legitimacy and explains their design. In this paper, we propose that path creation and morphogenesis, which deviates from isomorphism, is an additional consideration in explaining management control system design.     

Development Resource Planning: Complexity of Product Development and the Capacity to Launch New Products

Overcommitment of development capacity or development resource deficiencies are important problems in new product development (NPD). Existing approaches to development resource planning have largely neglected the issue of resource magnitude required for NPD. This research aims to fill the void by developing a simple higher‐level aggregate model based on an intuitive idea: The number of new product families that a firm can effectively undertake is bound by the complexity of its products or systems and the total amount of resources allocated to NPD. This study examines three manufacturing companies to verify the proposed model. The empirical results confirm the study's initial hypothesis: The more complex the product family, the smaller the number of product families that are launched per unit of revenue. Several suggestions and implications for managing NPD resources are discussed, such as how this study's model can establish an upper limit for the capacity to develop and launch new product families.