Effects of time horizon and asset condition on the profitability of technical trading rules

In much of the literature, the debate over technical trading strategies has centered around the question of whether an actively managed portfolio, controlled by a technical indicator, can outperform a passively managed portfolio. Typically, the time horizon is considered to be years. Additionally, the trader is assumed to use a technical trading strategy that is independent of asset conditions. These assumptions may not correspond well with reality. Traders often have much shorter time horizons and may switch between rebalancing or trading strategies on the basis of perceived shifts in market condition. This paper presents a study of the profitability of technical trading rules as a function of asset state or condition. Several common technical trading strategies were run on 296 stocks over a 15 year period. Strategies were run with 1 month rolling time horizons, significantly shorter than those used in similar studies in the literature. Stocks were segmented based on volatility and volume, which allowed for the examination of a strategy’s performance in different asset conditions. Several strategies were demonstrated to have consistently better risk-to-reward ratios under specific asset conditions and short time horizons. This finding helps to explain why some practitioners implement technical trading strategies.     

Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate

This paper analyses two well-known features of interest rates, namely their time dependence and their cyclical structure. Specifically, it focuses on the Euribor rate, using monthly data from January 1994 to May 2011. Two models are considered, one with fractional integration at the long run or zero frequency, and the other replacing the zero frequency with a cyclical one. The results indicate that the latter outperforms the former as well as other standard specifications. Future directions for research (such as nonlinearities, volatility behaviour, and multivariate models) are also discussed.     

Location determinants of high-growth firms

County-level location patterns of INC5000 companies provide one map of American entrepreneurship and innovativeness, and understanding the local factors associated with these firms’ emergence is important for stimulating regional economic growth and innovation. We draw on the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship to motivate our regression model, and augment this theory with additional regional features that have been found to be important in the firm location literature. Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions indicate that these firms exist in counties with larger average establishment size, higher educational attainment and more natural amenities. Income growth, a mix of higher paying industries, and more banks per capita are associated with a smaller presence of these types of firms, all else equal. We conclude that the local conditions favouring high-growth firms are likely to be different from those favouring new firms in general, and that these conditions differ significantly in urban and rural areas and by industrial sectors.     

Enticing the Stork: Can we Evaluate Pro‐Natal Policies Before Having Children?

Aside from immigration, the only meaningful demographic lever available to policymakers attempting to moderate the rate of ageing is the birth rate. This article departs from previous analyses of pro‐natal policies by studying determinants of pro‐natal options ex ante, which represents an advantage for policymakers looking to craft policies with prior knowledge of whether or not a demographic policy will have a significant effect. Our multinomial regression model for a US sample involving college students shows that the preferred choice of pro‐natal incentive is dependent on gender, economic class, number of planned children and migrant status. We find that females are more likely than males to choose any pro‐natal incentive over no incentive. The highest odds for increasing planned number of children are for maternity leave and parental leave options. Respondents associating themselves with the poorest economic class are more likely to choose daycare or government grant as pro‐natal options.     

Understanding the Social Role of Entrepreneurship

There is a need to rethink and redefine the social value added of entrepreneurial activities to society. In this paper we develop five pillars on which the evolving social role of entrepreneurship can rest and have its impact: (1) connecting entrepreneurial activities to other societal efforts aimed at improving the quality of life, achieving progress, and enriching human existence, (2) identifying ways to reduce the dysfunctional effects of entrepreneurial activities on stakeholders, (3) redefining the scope of entrepreneurial activities as a scholarly arena, (4) recognizing entrepreneurship's social multiplier, and (5) pursuing blended value at the organizational level, centring on balancing the creation of financial, social and environmental wealth. In a final section we discuss implications for practices and for further research.     

Raising the Bar (3)

This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in issue 11(3) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper proposes spatial and a-spatial indicators to describe the networks of airline companies around the world. The second paper sets forth a two-regime gravity-type model with an endogenous threshold parameter to assess the effect of labour market conditions on interregional migration flows. The third paper utilizes micro-data to explain student migration flows to higher education institutions. The fourth paper is among the first to make use of simulation-based location quotients in a multiregional input–output model. Finally, the last paper provides a purely economic–theoretical model on cooperative limit pricing in the context of spatial competition.     

Raising the bar (4)

This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in issue 11(4) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper deals with common factors and spatial dependence in the error term specification of a production function model. The second paper sets forth a New Economic Geography (NEG) model with production activities that vary in their complexity, so as to analyse the impact on specialization patterns across different regions. The third paper measures the efficiency of local public investments using a relatively unknown econometric technique in which the time span over which the variables in the regression equation are measured is increased by one time period every run. The fourth paper adopts a conditional quantile regression approach to determine the impact of people employed in informal jobs on the wage distribution in Colombia and five of its regions. Finally, the last paper proposes and tests two new Bayesian variable selection approaches for spatial econometric models.     

Credit Where Credit is Due: A Field Survey of the Interactive Effects of Credit Expectations and Leaders’ Credit Allocation on Employee Turnover

Today's human resource management community has a strong interest in the issue of how HR practice is implemented by managers and leaders in the workplace. In this article, we investigate how one specific practice, leaders’ public recognition of a job well done (i.e., credit allocation), impacts employee turnover. Based on expectancy violations, psychological contracts, and turnover research, we predicted that subordinates would be more likely to leave an organization if their leader took credit for their work, but only if the credit taking violated subordinates’ expectations. In a field survey of organizational employees, we found that the effects of credit taking on turnover were negated when subordinates’ expectations and leaders’ credit allocation behavior were aligned. However, when leaders’ credit behavior came as a surprise, participants responded negatively when expectations were not met and positively when expectations were exceeded. We discuss the implications of these results for both theory and practice. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems With a Mixture of i(1) and i(0) Variables

This paper considers structural models with both I(1) and I(0) variables. The structural shocks associated with either set of variables could be permanent or transitory. We classify the shocks as (P1,P0) and (T1,T0), where P/T distinguishes permanent/transitory, while 1/0 means they are attached to structural equations with either I(1) or I(0) variables as their ‘dependent’ variable. We show that P0 shocks can affect cointegration analysis and provide a formula to compute the permanent component if they are present. Finally, we reformulate a well‐known empirical structural vector autoregression showing the impact of P0 shocks when there are just long‐run parametric and sign restrictions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reanalyzing Zero Returns to Education in Germany

Pischke and von Wachter (Review of Economics and Statistics 2008; 90 (3): 592–598) find zero earnings returns to compulsory schooling in the basic school track in Germany. We reanalyze their study using a different dataset. In an extension, we use additional instruments which allow estimation of heterogeneous effects for different groups of compliers. We can confirm the previous result and also find zero returns for other compliers in higher track schools. Moreover, we do not find a causal effect of schooling on cognitive skills. This is in line with a potential reason Pischke & von Wachter (2008) give for their result, namely that basic skills are learned earlier in Germany and additional years of schooling are no longer effective. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.