Counterfactual analysis of bank mergers

We introduce a counterfactual analysis of banks mergers, combining the pre-merger equilibrium setting with post-merger environmental characteristics, while accounting for endogenously propagated changes in market structure. Using this procedure we are able to estimate the effects on loan flows and interest rates that would have been observed if the pre-merger equilibrium was not altered. Results are obtained for firms, households, and banks inside and outside the merging circles separately. We find that mergers increased firms’ access to credit, but had an opposite effect on households and led to a widespread decrease in interest rates.     

Fractional Integration of Nominal Exchange Rates: Evidence from CEECs in the Light of EMU Enlargement

This paper uses fractional integration models to describe the long‐run dependence of nominal exchange rates in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). The analysis is validated using nonparametric, semiparametric and parametric techniques. From comparing the results across the three approaches, it was clear that mean reversion takes places only for the euro exchange rates in Bulgaria, Estonia, and Slovenia. Other exchange rates based on the euro also display mean reversion with the parametric methods. For the US dollar rates, the unit‐root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in any single country, indicating that shocks affecting the exchange rates against the US dollar are of a permanent nature, while those directed against the euro are less persistent, and tend sometimes to disappear in the long run. Policy implications are derived.     

Stylised facts and other empirical evidence on firm dynamics,business cycle and growth

In this paper, we bring together, in a systematised fashion, the scattered empirical evidence relating firm dynamics with both short-run and long-run macroeconomic dynamics. There are numerous studies that focus on firm-level data while controlling for macroeconomic conditions. From these studies a fairly robust set of empirical regularities pertaining to entry, exit, growth and the size distribution of firms has emerged. However, the literature that focuses explicitly on the interplay between firm dynamics and the business cycle is roughly confined to the US experience and to the cyclical properties of firm entry and exit, while the studies about the relationship between firm dynamics and economic growth are limited and unsystematic. We also give a brief account of the most recent theoretical literature on firm dynamics and macroeconomic dynamics, and try to relate it to the empirical findings.     

The European Union: Economic prospects,structural reforms and enlargement

On the eve of enlargement of the European Union from fifteen to twenty-five Member States, this article focuses on economic developments in 2003 and prospects for 2004 and 2005 in the European Union, especially in the euro area, the state of play on structural reform, before concluding with some reflections on enlargement.     

Advantages of assembly lines in Sheltered Work Centres for Disabled. A case study

Current practices for the treatment of the physically and/or mentally handicapped prescribe meaningful job activity as a means towards both a more fulfilling life and societal integration. In many countries, these practices have facilitated the development of many Sheltered Work Centres for Disabled.In the case study presented, a reengineering process is done starting from individual workplaces where only certain workers were capable of assembling the entire product, and finishing with an assembly line implementation. It is revealed how the traditional division of work in single tasks, typical in assembly lines, becomes a perfect tool for making certain worker disabilities invisible, providing new jobs for disabled people; always taking into account certain special constraints that are analysed.     

SIX WAYS TO LEAVE UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper uses a unique Portuguese dataset to examine the effect of access to unemployment benefits (UBs) and their maximum potential duration on escape rates from unemployment. In examining the time profile of transitions out of unemployment, the principal contributions of the paper are twofold. First, it provides a detailed state space of potential outcomes: open-ended employment, fixed-term contracts, part-time work, government-provided jobs, self employment, and labour force withdrawal. Second, it is able to exploit major exogenous discontinuities in the maximum duration of unemployment benefits to identify disincentive effects. While confirming strong disincentive effects, it is shown that use of an aggregate hazard function regression model compounds very different and even contradictory effects of the determinants of unemployment.     

Mozambique Metical Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence of Fractional Co‐Integration in the USA and South African Rates

This paper studies the exchange rate dynamics of the Mozambique metical with respect to the US dollar and the South African rand. However, instead of using standard I(0)/I(1) techniques, we use long memory and fractionally integrated and co‐integrated models. Our results indicate that the two exchange rates are highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or above 1. They also seem to be co‐integrated, with an order of integration close to albeit above 0 but with an AR coefficient very close to 1. Thus, although the two series seem to be fractionally co‐integrated, shocks in the long‐run relationship between the two variables are persistent and take a long time to disappear.     

The Relationship Between Project Success and Project Efficiency

Many researchers have suggested that meeting time, scope, and budget goals, sometimes called ‘project efficiency,’ is not the comprehensive measure of project success. Broader measures of success have been recommended; however, to date, nobody has determined empirically the relationship between efficiency and overall success or indeed shown whether efficiency is important at all to overall project success. Our aim in this article is to correct that omission. Through a survey of 1,386 projects we have shown that project efficiency correlates moderately strongly to overall project success (correlation of 0.6 and R² of 0.36). Efficiency is shown through analysis to be neither the only aspect of project success nor an aspect of project success that can be ignored.     

Regional entrepreneurship capital and firm production

Certain theories suggest that the capacity of a region to generate new firms, called entrepreneurship capital, has positive spillover effects on the production of the firms in that region. Evidence generated with aggregated data at the regional level supports this prediction. This paper argues that, using aggregated data at the regional level, entrepreneurship capital could be correlated with regional production even if entrepreneurship capital has no spillover effects on firm production. This will not be the case when data at the firm level are used. This paper provides evidence from a sample of 11,276 Spanish firms during the 2004–2012 period. Positive spillovers are estimated in between effects models, but such spillovers are only found in technological firms when within effects models have been estimated. Thus, the regional entrepreneurship capital spillovers are unclear when data at the firm level are used. Plausible interpretations and implications are discussed.