金融周期识别与货币政策的选择

近年来,随着金融市场的快速发展,金融体系对实体经济的影响日益增加,金融冲击成为引起经济频繁波动的重要因素,金融市场自身的周期波动对实体经济运行也产生了显著的周期效应.在此背景下,从金融市场和货币政策出发来研究金融周期波动和金融危机形成的内在机制的金融周期理论,逐渐成为经济周期理论研究的一个新兴热点领域.因此,本文试图系统性地研究金融周期,首先,文章梳理了金融周期理论文献的发展脉络,探讨了金融周期波动的两种主要机制,在此基础上,文章描述了我国当前金融运行特点,进一步研究了我国进入金融周期下半场后金融市场所表现的主要特征,最后根据金融周期的特征提出了货币政策建议.     

Rainbow trend options: valuation and applications

Asset selection and timing decisions are major investment concerns. To resolve these issues simultaneously, a new class of rainbow trend options is proposed. The diversification effect of rainbow options can reduce the importance of asset selection decisions and trend options can mitigate unfavorable effects on market entry and exit decisions. We consider a general framework to facilitate the derivation of analytic pricing formulas for simple, pure, and Asian rainbow trend options using the martingale pricing method. The properties of these options and their Greeks are analyzed. We also investigate the performance of the dynamic delta hedging strategy for issuers of rainbow trend options. Last, this paper explores the applications of rainbow trend options for hedging price risks, designing executive stock options, modifying countercyclical capital buffer proposed by Basel Committee, and acting as control variates of the Monte Carlo simulation.     

What determines outstanding corporate debt mix? Evidence from fractional multinomial logit estimation

This study employs the fractional multinomial logit setting proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996) to examine factors driving the choice among nonbank private (144A) debt, bank loans and public debt made by 988 nonfinancial firms during 1993–2007. We document that the majority of firm-level factors have persistent effects on corporate outstanding debt mix across economic conditions. We also highlight the importance of macroeconomic variables on firms’ borrowing decisions as predicted by Diamond (1991). Finally, we document a substitution effect among debt financing sources due to credit rating downgrades, which is inconsistent with Rauh and Sufi (2010).     

基于Fluent的波节管内流体流动与传热特性研究

为了深入研究影响波节管传热效果的主要因素,应用CFD软件Fluent对波节管内流体的流动和传热特性进行数值模拟,分别研究了不同入口流速v(0.3,0.5,0.7和0.9 m/s)、波峰直径D_1(28,30,32,34和36 mm)、弧形段长S_1(34,23,17,13和10 mm)下波节管内流体的流动与传热特性。结果表明,不同型号波节管的努塞尔数(Nu)、流体压力损失以及综合性能随着入口流速的增加而增加;随着波峰直径D_1(弧形段长S_1)的增大,波节管的Nu先增大后减小,最后趋于一个相对稳定的值。当波节管的波峰直径D_1=34 mm时,波节管的传热性能最好,流体压力损失最大,综合性能最好;弧形段长S_1=23 mm时,波节管的换热性能最佳,流体压力损失最大,综合性能最好。通过参数正交分析可知,影响波节管传热效果的因素由强到弱依次为入口流速v、波峰直径D_1、弧形段长S_1。研究成果可为工程实际中提高波节管传热性能提供理论指导。     

Determinants of information technology investments: The case of ATM in an emerging economy

This paper examines the determinants of automatic teller machine (ATM), a kind of information technology (IT), in the Taiwanese banking industry. The lessons learned from Taiwan's banking industry can be applied to China's banking industry to facilitate the understanding of the IT adoption strategies of Chinese financial institutions. Factors that are expected to have impact on IT investment in general and on ATM investment in particular are identified from three perspectives, namely operating scale perspective, deposit service perspective, and operating cost perspective. The results of this study indicate that operating scale, banking deposit service and operating cost are all significant determinants of ATM investment in the Taiwan banking industry. The results are useful for those banks and financial institutions outside of China in deciding their ATM investment strategies in China when trying to enter and penetrate the Chinese banking market.     

Perceptions of the ethicality of favors at work in Asia: An 11-society assessment

We explore macro-level factors that shape perceptions of the ethicality of favors in Asian workplaces using the subordinate influence ethics (SIE) measure. We also expand and use the crossvergence model to examine the cross-level relationship between socio-cultural (i.e., traditional/secular; survival/self-expression; in-group favoritism) and business ideology influences (i.e., human development level, control of corruption) on perceptions of favor-seeking at work. This study examines the perceptions of a total of 4,325 managers and professionals in a diverse set of 11 Asian societies: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Our investigation focuses on both the “softer” (image management) and “harder” (self-serving) sides of subordinate influence attempts to seek favors, as well as the degree of ethical differentiation across these societies. Key results based on hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) suggest that both the World Value Survey’s socio-cultural values as well as in-group favoritism contribute to our understanding of influence behaviors in Asia. Likewise, level of human development and control of corruption also appear to be promising predictors of influence ethics. In sum, our results suggest that widening the scope of the crossvergence conceptualization of socio-cultural and business ideology influences engender a better understanding of differences in attitudes toward subordinate use of favoritism across Asian societies.     

More communication is not always better? The interplay between effective communication and interpersonal conflict in influencing satisfaction

Effective communication on a personal level plays an important role in developing a long-term buyer–seller relationship, but the process of interpersonal communication may be conflictual. Drawing on the interaction approach, the present study investigates the interplay between effective communication and interpersonal conflict in influencing satisfaction and argues that a high level of effective communication not only diminishes the negative impact of relationship conflict on satisfaction, but also suppresses the positive impact of task conflict on satisfaction. Surveying data from 298 procurement professionals revealed that as the level of effective communication increases, the negative impacts of relationship conflict on satisfaction decrease, but the positive impacts of task conflict on satisfaction also decrease. Therefore, effective communication is found to be beneficial for improving purchasers' perceived satisfaction, but the timing of the task conflict, along with the low levels of relationship conflict, is a critical factor to affect the efficiency of effective communication.     

The influence of experiential marketing and activity involvement on the loyalty intentions of wine tourists in Taiwan

This study assesses a behavioural model that uses latent variables of experience of experiential marketing, activity involvement, satisfaction and loyalty intentions of wine tourists in Taiwan. A total of 871 usable questionnaires were collected. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation model analysis were performed using LISREL 8.70 for Windows. Analytical results, which further elucidate the behavioural models of wine tourism, suggest that experience of experiential marketing, activity involvement and satisfaction significantly affect the loyalty intentions of wine tourists. Satisfaction played a mediating role in the behavioural model. This study provides further insight into the behavioural modelling of wine tourism.     

The influence of recreation experiences on environmentally responsible behavior: the case of Liuqiu Island,Taiwan

Scientific understanding of the relationships between recreation experience and environmentally responsible behavior (ERB) of nature-based tourists is limited. To address this research gap, this study examines the relationship between recreation experiences (i.e. education, experiential engagement, esthetics, and escapism) and the general and site-specific ERB of tourists on Liuqiu Island in Taiwan. In total, 443 usable questionnaires were collected. The empirical results indicate that general ERB is positively and significantly affected by experiential engagement and the escapism of recreation experiences. The site-specific ERB of tourists is positively and significantly affected by the education, esthetics, and escapism of the recreation experience. We conclude that when people participate in the types of nature-based tourism described here, their recreation experiences can strengthen their sense of engagement in general and site-specific ERB, and contribute constructively to positive aspects of sustainable tourism. The management implications presented in this paper provide valuable insights for sustainable tourism. We suggest that recreation managers at nature-based tourism destinations collaborate to plan and implement recreational activities that are integrated with environmental education initiatives. This approach will encourage tourists to simultaneously engage in high-quality recreation experiences and ERB.     

Brand-as-Person versus Brand-as-User: An Anthropomorphic Issue in Tourism-related Self-Congruity Studies

Tourism self-congruity studies use two facets to personify destinations, namely, brand-as-person and brand-as-user. These features have been considered synonymous in previous research, and thus the differences between these facets, which may demonstrate biased congruity, must be investigated. This study uses projective techniques to personify brand-as-person and brand-as-user for two tourist destinations. Both facets are distinct and must not be used interchangeably in tourism-related self-congruity studies.