“I’ll be Back” – Austrian Recalls

Using administrative data I estimate the chances of leaving unemployment for unemployed Austrians, distinguishing between finding a job with a new employer, returning to the previous employer, or leaving the labour market. There is evidence of substantial recall amongst unemployed Austrians, about a third of unemployed men are recalled. Competing risks analysis shows that the shapes of the hazards are different for the three risks. Workers who are recalled are a highly homogeneous group in comparison to the other unemployed.Thanks to Alison Booth, Simon Burgess, Stephen Jenkins, Karl Pichelmann, Mark Taylor, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer and an anonymous referee. I also thank the Institute for Advanced Studies in Vienna for the kind provision of the data. Special thanks to Franz Brandel for his help with data extraction and management.     

Dynamic and stochastic structures in tourism demand modeling

In this paper we consider a model for international tourism demand. The point of departure of the analysis is a utility function that is both dynamic and stochastic. In the model the stochastic component is interpreted as random changes in preferences for goods and services, while the dynamic component can be seen as either habit formation or as interdependent preferences. The resulting demand functions are estimated as a multivariate state space model, where the stochastic components enter the model as stochastic seasonal and trend components. An application is constructed for different segments of the Swedish tourism market. The results indicate the importance of including both dynamic and stochastic components in the utility function, and the importance of using disaggregate data to enable investigation of each market segment.I am grateful to two anonymous referees for useful comments. Much of the research was done while I was a visiting scholar at University of California Berkeley. The hospitality of the RIPM division is gratefully acknowledged. The research was supported by grants from the Wallander Foundation.First version received: January 2003/Final version received: February 2004     

Eliciting Subjective Beliefs about Mortality Risk Orderings

We develop an experimental method to elicit subjective beliefs about the ordering of mortality risk over different causes of death. The experimental procedure emphasizes incentive-compatibility, so that the individual has a positive financial incentive to respond truthfully. We also consider the extent to which individuals have subjective beliefs for sub-segments of the population that are more accurate than their beliefs about the risks for the population as a whole. We propose several hypotheses concerning the degree of familiarity of the risks, and find that the evidence supports those hypotheses. The evidence also suggests that there is no discernible difference between beliefs elicited using hypothetical or real financial rewards in the elicitation format we use. Our findings restore some confidence in the ability to elicit beliefs about mortality risks, and therefore to get reliable estimates of the monetary value of a statistical life. We dedicate this paper to the memory of J. Clay Lesley, who assisted us in the design and execution of the experiments and was a valued student, colleague and friend.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Formation of Cartels in Glove Markets and the Modiclus

Received March 23, 2001; revised version received September 21, 2001     

The Bioeconomics of the Spatial Distribution of an Endangered Species: The Case of the Swedish Wolf Population

Conservation of endangered species often entails significant costs, and, from a social perspective, many species can be characterized as both environmental bads and goods. This paper concerns the management of one such species, the Swedish wolf (Canis lupus). The fact that the wolf tends to disperse over a wide area causes specific management problems. The goal is to choose a harvesting strategy, such that the discounted stream of net benefits from the wolf populations in different geographical regions is maximized. The spatial dimension is involved through emigration and immigration. The solution to the management problem is shown to be a modification of the classical rule of renewable resource exploitation, caused by the migration of wolves between regions. Empirically, this problem is solved by dividing Sweden into 13 geographical regions, and accounting for the existence values, harvesting benefits, and predation costs of the wolf population in each region. The results show that the geographical distribution of wolves, in absolute numbers, is very sensitive to the abundance of prey and to different assumptions regarding the economic parameters of the model. However, the relative distribution of wolves across the country is less sensitive to these assumptions. The highest densities of wolves were found in regions with low marginal costs, due to the abundance of prey in relation to the comparatively low number of human hunters utilizing the same prey as the wolves. The lowest population densities were found in regions with a low carrying capacity for the wolf or with high costs of depredation on reindeer.     

A taxonomy of ecopreneurship in small manufacturing firms: A multidimensional cluster analysis

This study presents a multidimensional taxonomy of “ecopreneurship” for small manufacturing firms. Based on a cluster analysis of 312 Swedish firms, four distinct clusters are identified: pioneers, green dumpers, overlookers, and recyclers. These clusters are compared regarding their level of entrepreneurial orientation and firm performance. Based on the results, and because of the resource constraints associated with small firms, managers of such companies are advised to examine the economic consequences of specific environmental business practices and to adopt a less aggregated approach to ecopreneurship. This study illustrates the usefulness of a multidimensional scale when researching environmental behaviors and is a response to the lack of an empirically based classification of ecopreneurship configurations.     

The behaviour of the Lagrangian multiplier test in testing the orders of an ARMA-model

Summary The Lagrange multiplier test for testing the order of an ARMA-model is investigated. It is shown that it exhibits some pathologies stemming from the special properties of parameter spaces of ARMA-models. As a consequence one has to be careful in using the LM-test in this context. Furthermore results of this paper are used in a subsequent paper [Pötscher, 1983], to show the consistency of an order estimation procedure based on Lagrange multiplier tests, described there.     

The impact of productivity adjusted deviations from PPP on the U.S. inbound FDI: Evidence from Japan, U.K. and Germany

In this paper, we investigate the degree to which productivity adjusted deviations from PPP influence the U.S. inbound FDI. Our results show a significant negative relationship between productivity adjusted misalignments and the U.S. inbound FDI from Germany and the United Kingdom in the short-run, and a positive relationship in the long-run. Hence, indicating that a positive misalignment—undervalued U.S. dollar—leads to a decrease in the U.S. inbound FDI in the short-run and to an increase in the long-run. No significant evidence is found for Japan. Interestingly, unadjusted real exchange rate changes show no statistically significant relationship with respect to the U.S. inbound FDI. The authors thank the reviewers for their insightful comments.     

Die Marktabgrenzung im Versicherungskartellrecht am Beispiel der Berufshaftpflichtversicherungen

The definition of the relevant market is crucial to the application of European and German competition law and especially difficult when dealing with insurance markets. Generally, the product and geographic market comprises all products or services that are regarded as substitutable by consumers. In addition, the supply-side substitutability can be taken into consideration. In defining insurance product markets, the supply-side substitutability is decisive, because insurance products are seldom interchangeable from a policy holder’s point of view. Applying the concept of supply-side substitutability to professional indemnity insurances leads to product markets correlating with the different professional groups: Indemnity insurances for physicians constitute a product market; insurances for lawyers, notary publics, tax advisers and public accountants form another market and insurances for architects and construction engineers another one. These product markets are still national markets. Professional indemnity insurances are extensively shaped by the differing legal systems, namely by national insurance contract law, by liability provisions and by a legal obligation to insure. Consequently, policy holders cannot substitute their indemnity insurance with foreign insurance products and insurers are confronted with market entry barriers. However, the proposed directive on services on the internal market and the adopted directive on insurance mediation could result in community-wide markets in the near future.