China's Banking Reform

This article discusses the main problems facing the Chinese banking system and concludes that, despite serious problems, the risk seems small that, in the near future, a financial crisis will occur that will pose severe problems for the international financial system. An internal financial crisis, however, could occur. Without government support, the economic viability of many of China's banks is questionable. The government and central bank authorities acknowledge the situation and have taken some steps toward reform. The most serious threat to the banking system lies in the accumulation of non-performing loans (NPLs)--many of them policybased loans extended by state-owned banks to money-losing state-owned companies with little expectation that they would be completely repaid. China has been taking measures to keep the problem from worsening and has created four asset management companies to dispose of NPLs that still have value. Since the Chinese economic reforms began in 1978, Chinese authorities have made significant progress in modernising their banking system, although they still have a long way to go. However, there are several ameliorating factors that still keep its financial and foreign exchange system viable. China's continued high rate of growth and high savings rate have funneled deposits into the banking system, while a $20-30 billion annual trade surplus together with an inflow of foreign direct investment at about $40 billion per year have resulted in an accumulation of foreign exchange reserves exceeding $200 billion. China does not carry an unusually heavy debt burden, either domestic or international, although its short-term borrowing in foreign currencies has been increasing. China does not currently face a serious risk of either a domestic or international liquidity crisis--unless, of course, a severe and prolonged world recession occurs that adversely affects Chinese exports as well as the inflow of foreign direct investment.     

Barriers to Managing Diversity in a UK Constabulary: The Role of Discourse

The literature on diversity management has tended to obfuscate some of the theoretical and methodological shortcomings associated with research in this area. Specifically, the literature tends to make a number of rather naïve assumptions about the experiences and aspirations of disadvantaged groups. This paper seeks to problematize the universalist and partisan tendencies that typify much of the diversity literature by focusing on the issue of 'resistance'. Using a form of discourse analysis informed by Foucauldian principles, the paper explores how 'resistance' to diversity initiatives is expressed by both 'dominant' and 'subordinated' groups in a UK police force. It is argued that 'resistance' is better thought of as a discursive resource that can be drawn upon to justify or account for one's own organizational experiences and, in turn, the need to both justify and account for one's experiences is located in broader discursive fields that reproduce dominant ideologies of liberal democracies. The theoretical implications of this position are discussed and a case is presented for more critical and theoretical approaches in the diversity management literature.     

‘The town dictates what I do’: the leisure,health and well-being of women in a small Australian country town

The contribution of leisure to individual health and well-being is well documented. It is also clear that patterns of leisure activity are differentiated by gender and regional differences, as well as those of age, class and ethnicity. This paper explores the leisure and well-being of mid aged rural women in a small Australian country town in the late 1990s, focusing on issues which have been identified in the Canadian literature as being significant for women in isolated areas. These issues, which constrain the choices women make about their lives, include poor job opportunities, a lack of public transport and other facilities, family transience, community designs that isolate women in their homes, and the politics of being ‘different’ in a small community. Commonalities in the lives of rural women in North America, New Zealand and Australia indicate that these issues may more broadly characterise the lives of women in isolated towns in western post-industrial societies. Data are drawn from focus group interviews, augmented with observation, and the study is contextualized in findings from the Women's Health Australia longitudinal study (WHA).     

Socio-economic and demographic determinants of consumer problem perception

Studies on consumer satisfaction, dissatisfaction, and complaining behaviour provide no consistent picture of the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the consumers involved. This study indicates that consumers with different socio-economic characteristics perceive and experience different numbers and types of consumer problems.Younger people experience more problems with commercial information. Persons of lower income and full nest families report more problems with usage costs and product quality. Problems with after-sales service are more often experienced by male and upper class consumers. Differences in problem perception may affect subsequent satisfaction, dissatisfaction, and complaining behaviour.

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Sozioökonomische und demographische Einflüsse auf die Wahrnehmung von Verbraucherproblemen

Zusammenfassung Untersuchungen zur Zufriedenheit, zur Unzufriedenheit und zum Beschwerdeverhalten von Konsumenten ergeben kein konsistentes Bild der sozioökonomischen und demographischen Eigenschaften der untersuchten Konsumenten. Die vorliegende Studie deutet darauf hin, daß Konsumenten mit unterschiedlichen sozioökonomischen Eigenschaften sich hinsichtlich der Anzahl und der Art der wahrgenommenen Verbraucherprobleme unterscheiden.Jüngere Verbraucher empfinden mehr Probleme mit kommerzieller Information. Verbraucher mit niedrigerem Einkommen und Familien mit Kindern nehmen mehr Probleme mit den Gebrauchskosten und mit der Produktqualität wahr. Probleme mit dem Kundendienst treten dagegen häufiger bei männlichen Konsumenten und solchen aus höheren Schichten auf. Unterschiede in der Problemwahrnehmung wirken sich auf die Zufriedenheit und das Beschwerdeverhalten von Konsumenten aus.

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Dick A. Francken is a Research Fellow at SWOKA, Institute for Scientific Research on Consumer Affairs, Kon. Emmakade 192–195, NL-2518 JP The Hague, The Netherlands. W. Fred van Raaij is Professor of Economic Psychology at Erasmus University, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.     

Combining self-explicated priors with conjoint data using Bayesian regression

A Bayesian regression procedure (RBAYES) is proposed for the optimal combination of self-explicated data (priors) and conjoint judgments. The procedure does not require the design matrix for the conjoint judgments to be of full rank. The Bayesian regression procedure is similar to weighted least square in that it uses an information ratio to weight the priors. We provide empirical comparisons for the proposed method against (1) a Stein-type estimator (SBAYES) using one data set and (2) OLS applied to the data from an adaptive conjoint analysis using a second data set. In the second application we also use an alternating least squares procedure by itself and in combination with Bayesian regression (RBAYES+) to accommodate scale incompatibility as well as heteroscedasticity. In both applications we obtain superior results for the Bayesian regression procedure.     

Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organisations, crop choices, land management, and labour use, and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. Many factors have context-specific impacts and involve trade-offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation. Government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, non-governmental organization (NGO) programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion, but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. Poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production, depending on the nature of poverty: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production. Population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification, but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on soil erosion. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few 'win-win' opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.     

Optimal portfolios with minimum capital requirements

We propose a novel approach to active risk management based on the recent Basel II regulations to obtain optimal portfolios with minimum capital requirements. In order to avoid regulatory penalties due to an excessive number of Value-at-Risk (VaR) violations, capital requirements are minimized subject to a given number of violations over the previous trading year. Capital requirements are based on the recent Basel II amendments to account for the ‘stressed’ VaR, that is, the downside risk of the portfolio under extreme adverse market conditions. An empirical application for two portfolios involving different types of assets and alternative stress scenarios demonstrates that the proposed approach delivers an improved balance between capital requirement levels and the number of VaR exceedances. Furthermore, the risk-adjusted performance of the proposed approach is superior to that of minimum-VaR and minimum-stressed VaR portfolios.     

Interstellar humanity

Fifty years after Olaf Stapledon's landmark essay “Interplanetary man?”, we propose the coming era of “interstellar humanity”. Over the next 1000 years the domain of humanity will increasingly spread to the stars, a process that will alter our future in profound ways. At least three factors will drive this expansion: (1) increased understanding of cosmic evolution, changing our perception of ourselves and our place in the universe; (2) contact with extraterrestrial intelligence, bringing knowledge, wisdom, and problems of culture contact now unforeseen; and (3) interstellar travel, transporting humanity's emissaries to at least the nearest stars. The consequences of these events are not predictable in detail, but may be studied by examining the lessons of cosmic evolution; by using history to analyze the reception of new world views and intellectual culture contacts on Earth; and by anticipating the likelihood of success in interstellar travel and its effects. The prospect of interstellar humanity during the next millennium is likely to have an effect on all branches of terrestrial endeavor, whether religion, philosophy, science or the arts. The stage of human drama will be vastly expanded.