Adaptive planning and uncertainty resolution

The article discusses uncertainty resolution and the approaches to uncertainty in planning. Statically perceived uncertainty may be described more or less explicitly in decision making. Stating various possible outcomes and, possibly, their numerical probabilities may allow quantitative theory to be applied. However, there will be a residual of genuine uncertainty due to the limits set by the available information. By “buying” more information the decision maker can decrease the genuine uncertainty. It is also often possible to reduce uncertainty by waiting. The most effective way is to state the expectations explicitly and to let the various future states of information correspond to alternative decisions in a conditional strategy. This requires a new kind of forecast that refers to the development of information available. A less efficient mode of planning can still take into consideration the fact that revisions are expected. This is flexible planning in a wide sense.     

Discussion of “Contagion of accounting methods: evidence from stock option expensing”

Reppenhagen (Rev Account Stud, 2010) investigates how and through which channels contagion, i.e., accounting methods used by related firms, can influence a firm’s accounting choice. My discussion focuses on research design choices and the potential effect of factors other than those investigated in the study.     

Social Behaviour in Work Absence*

By making use of a large‐scale randomized experiment, we test whether social behaviour is important for work absence due to illness. The individuals treated in the experiment were exposed to less monitoring of their eligibility to collect sickness insurance benefits, which sharply increased their non‐monitored work absence. This exogenous variation is exploited in two complementary analyses. In both analyses, we find significant social‐behaviour effects. Using detailed data, we conclude that the social‐behaviour effects most likely stem from fairness concerns.     

Aligning organisational interests in designing rail-wagon tracking

The paper investigates the design and implementation of rail-wagon tracking to align the interests of rail-track owners, rail operators and third-party logistics service providers. The investigation identifies design actions to enable beneficial uses for the different rail-wagon tracking participants in a railway logistics system. Design science is used as the overall research approach. The findings are derived in the context of three organisations involved in an automotive railway logistics system. Data on the perceptions and interests of the parties is collected using the case-study methodology. Our findings indicate how rail-wagon tracking can be used to improve the efficiency of rail transport operators’ maintenance operations and potentially decrease wear and tear on rail tracks owned by the government authority. These anticipated benefits have motivated the transport authority in the case setting to make investments in more intelligent infrastructure, providing a platform for future material-flow tracking by logistics companies.     

Local Pollution in Federal Systems

It is widely accepted that decentralized control of local pollution is inefficient if the central and the local authorities are imperfectly informed. This paper shows how the central authority can introduce a flexible grant-in-aid system that induces the local authority to use a weighted combination of local and central information when the local authority suffers from confirmatory bias. If the central authority is highly uncertain about the environmental effects of a specific pollutant, the tax/subsidy scheme can be designed to allow local information to play an essential role in the environmental policy. If the central authority is certain that a pollutant must not exceed a specific limit, the tax/subsidy scheme can be designed to allow local information little influence on the environmental policy.     

Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts

We compare the characteristics of real-world financial contracts to their counterparts in financial contracting theory. We do so by studying the actual contracts between venture capitalists (VCs) and entrepreneurs. The distinguishing characteristic of VC financings is that they allow VCs to separately allocate cash flow rights, board rights, voting rights, liquidation rights, and other control rights. We describe and measure these rights. We then interpret our results in relation to existing financial contracting theories. We also describe the interrelation and the evolution across financing rounds of the different rights.     

Trade policy in majoritarian systems: the case of the U.S.

Abstract We provide a theory of trade policy determination that incorporates the protectionist bias inherent in majoritarian systems, suggested by Grossman and Helpman (2005) . The prediction that emerges is that in majoritarian systems, the majority party favours industries located disproportionately in majority districts. We test this prediction using U.S. data on tariffs, Congressional campaign contributions, and industry location in districts represented by the majority party over the period 1989–97. We find evidence of a significant majority bias in trade policy: the benefit to being represented by the majority party appears at least as large in magnitude as the benefit to lobbying.     

Insider-outsider forces in wage and employment determination: The case of Sweden

This paper applies a statistical approach used by Andersen & Hylleberg (1993) in their study of insider-outsider effects in wage-employment determination in the Danish manufacturing sector, to analyse insider-outsider effects in the Swedish private sector. Focusing on the univariate and multivariate trend properties of the data, a bivariate wage-employment error correction model is used as an explicit test-bed for the theoretical predictions of adjustments to anticipated and unanticipated shocks. According to the Blanchard & Summers (1986) insider-outsider model, the former changes are absorbed entirely by wages while the latter changes are reflected fully in employment. As in the case of analysis on Danish manufacturing data, it is found that the evidence based on data related to the Swedish private sector also fails to accept the Blanchard & Summers insider-outsider model in its unqualified version. Nonetheless several important traits of insider-outsider mechanisms seem to be in accordance with the observed evolution of the data.     

Finite sample accuracy and choice of sampling frequency in integrated volatility estimation

We consider the properties of three estimation methods for integrated volatility, i.e. realized volatility, Fourier, and wavelet estimation, when a typical sample of high-frequency data is observed. We employ several different generating mechanisms for the instantaneous volatility process, e.g. Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, long memory, and jump processes. The possibility of market microstructure contamination is also entertained using models with bid-ask bounce and price discreteness, in which case alternative estimators with theoretical justification under market microstructure noise are also examined. The estimation methods are compared in a simulation study which reveals a general robustness towards persistence or jumps in the latent stochastic volatility process. However, bid-ask bounce effects render realized volatility and especially the wavelet estimator less useful in practice, whereas the Fourier method remains useful and is superior to the other two estimators in that case. More strikingly, even compared to bias correction methods for microstructure noise, the Fourier method is superior with respect to RMSE while having only slightly higher bias. A brief empirical illustration with high-frequency GE data is also included.