Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs): modeling and risk analysis

Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) are structured credit derivatives that generate high coupon payments by dynamically leveraging a position in an underlying portfolio of investment-grade index default swaps. CPDO coupons and principal notes received high initial credit ratings from the major rating agencies, based on complex models for the joint transition of ratings and spreads for all names in the underlying portfolio. We propose a parsimonious model for analysing the performance of CPDO strategies using a top-down approach that captures the essential risk factors of the CPDO. Our approach allows us to compute default probabilities, loss distributions and other tail risk measures for the CPDO strategy and analyse the dependence of these risk measures on various parameters describing the risk factors. We find that the probability of the CPDO defaulting on its coupon payments can be made arbitrarily small—and thus the credit rating arbitrarily high—by increasing leverage, but the ratings obtained strongly depend on assumptions on the credit environment (high spread or low spread). More importantly, CPDO loss distributions are found to exhibit a wide range of tail risk measures inside a given rating category, suggesting that credit ratings are insufficient performance indicators for such complex leveraged strategies. A worst-case scenario analysis indicates that CPDO strategies have a high exposure to persistent spread-widening scenarios and that CPDO ratings are shown to be quite unstable during the lifetime of the strategy.     

Diagonal effects in claims reserving

In this paper we present two different approaches to how one can include diagonal effects in non-life claims reserving based on run-off triangles. Empirical analyses suggest that the approaches in Zehnwirth (2003) and Kuang et al. (2008a, 2008b) do not work well with low-dimensional run-off triangles because estimation uncertainty is too large. To overcome this problem we consider similar models with a smaller number of parameters. These are closely related to the framework considered in Verbeek (1972) and Taylor (1977, 2000); the separation method. We explain that these models can be interpreted as extensions of the multiplicative Poisson models introduced by Hachemeister & Stanard (1975) and Mack (1991).     

EU-China Partenariat 2006：Tailor-made Opportunities for SMEs of EU and China

2006 EU-China Partenariat 2006, the large-scale business-to-business event which will link almost one thousand European and Chinese companies is indeed a highly appropriate way to further enhance the already excellent relations between the EU and China moreover as this is the very year that we are celebrating 30 years of EU-China diplomatic ties.     

Populism and Conspiracy: A Historical Synthesis of American Countersubversive Narratives

Recent public concern about political conspiracy theories and disinformation has led some to favor restrictions on free speech or call for greater government transparency. These proposals are likely to fail, as they are based upon the faulty assumption that belief in conspiracies is a product of ignorance. It is surprising that few scholars in recent years have focused on the special connection between conspiracy theories and the populist movements that commonly spawn them. Historically, the American system has restricted political action outside certain normal bounds, eventually encouraging frustrated citizens to develop new opposition movements. Populists then adopt conspiracy theories as tools to reshape political coalitions and forge unified organizations of their own. In light of the functional purpose of conspiracy theories and the oppositional critique of populist movements, conspiratorial narratives no longer appear to be the product of ignorance.     

Early employment expansion and long-run survival: examining employee turnover as a context factor

We investigate under which circumstances early employment growth translates into greater long-run survival. Drawing on Penrose's growth theory, we suggest that the relationship between early employment growth and long-run survival is conditional on employee turnover. We argue that higher employee turnover reduces joint experience in the firm and disrupts the development and eventual exploitation of the firm's productive opportunity set, thereby reducing long-term utilization of early employment expansion. These arguments suggest that the firm's ability to realize long-term benefits of early employment growth is contingent upon low employee turnover following this initial expansion. Using the Danish Integrated Database for Labor Market Research, we show that only when employee turnover is low, will early employment growth lead to higher survival in the long run.     

Let the music play or not: The influence of background music on consumer behavior

This study concerns the effect that music has on consumer behavior in two different retail contexts during regular opening hours. Two studies were conducted in a field setting with consumers (N=550). Consumers were recruited to answer questions regarding behavioral measures, attitudes, and mood during days when background music was played. The conclusions from the two studies are that music affects consumer behavior, but also that the type of retail store and gender influences both the strength and direction of the effect.     

Why has Income Inequality in Germany Increased From 2002 to 2011? A Behavioral Microsimulation Decomposition

This paper proposes a method to decompose changes in income inequality into the contributions of policy changes, wage rate changes, and population changes while considering labor supply reactions. Using data from the Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP), this method is applied to decompose the increase in income inequality in Germany from 2002 to 2011, a period that saw tax reductions and a controversial overhaul of the transfer system. The simulations show that tax and transfer reforms have had an inequality‐reducing effect as measured by the mean log deviation and the Gini coefficient. For the Gini, these effects are offset by labor supply reactions. In contrast, policy changes explain part of the increase in the ratio between the 90th and the 50th income percentiles. Changes in wage rates have led to a decrease in income inequality. Thus, the increase in inequality was due to changes in the population.