EU-China Partenariat 2006:Tailor-made Opportunities for SMEs of EU and China

2006 EU-China Partenariat 2006, the large-scale business-to-business event which will link almost one thousand European and Chinese companies is indeed a highly appropriate way to further enhance the already excellent relations between the EU and China moreover as this is the very year that we are celebrating 30 years of EU-China diplomatic ties.     

Why has Income Inequality in Germany Increased From 2002 to 2011? A Behavioral Microsimulation Decomposition

This paper proposes a method to decompose changes in income inequality into the contributions of policy changes, wage rate changes, and population changes while considering labor supply reactions. Using data from the Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP), this method is applied to decompose the increase in income inequality in Germany from 2002 to 2011, a period that saw tax reductions and a controversial overhaul of the transfer system. The simulations show that tax and transfer reforms have had an inequality‐reducing effect as measured by the mean log deviation and the Gini coefficient. For the Gini, these effects are offset by labor supply reactions. In contrast, policy changes explain part of the increase in the ratio between the 90th and the 50th income percentiles. Changes in wage rates have led to a decrease in income inequality. Thus, the increase in inequality was due to changes in the population.     

Hours risk and wage risk: repercussions over the life cycle*

We decompose earnings risk into contributions from hours and wage shocks. To distinguish between hours shocks, modeled as innovations to the marginal disutility of work, and labor supply reactions to wage shocks, we formulate a life-cycle model of consumption and labor supply. For estimation, we use data on married American men from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Permanent wage shocks explain 31 percent of total risk, permanent hours shocks 21 percent. Progressive taxation attenuates cross-sectional earnings risk, but its life-cycle insurance impact is much smaller. At the mean, a one-standard-deviation hours shock raises lifetime income by 11 percent, a wage shock by 13 percent.     

Ecological risk assessment of pesticides in the EU: what factors and groups influence policy changes?

For the last couple of years, European environmental risk assessment (ERA) regulations have undergone significant changes. The new 1107/2009 directive which came into effect in 2011 has triggered an on-going debate on defining specific protection goals for ERA. During this period, we conducted a study on policy change among the most influential ERA stakeholders from Europe. We interviewed 43, purposively sampled, participants from the European safety authorities, plant protection product industry and academia. Transcribed interviews underwent thematic analysis conducted separately by two coders. As we followed the advocacy coalition framework, our findings focus on stakeholders’ processes, interrelations and values behind the ERA policy change. The main challenges emerging from our analysis turned out to be the slow uptake of scientific developments into ERA and very broadly defined protection goals. The use of safety factors and cut-off criteria left risk assessors with many uncertainties. With ERA in its current form it turned out to be impossible to determine whether the current scheme is over- or under-protective. Still, the study shows that the problem of over- or under-protectiveness lies deep in the perception of stakeholders and depends greatly on their priorities. Academics strive for better ecological relevance as a priority. They have concerns that ERA is oversimplified. Regulators worry that ERA relies too much on risk mitigation and is possibly not protective enough, but at the same time, the majority believes that the assessment is well established and straightforward to follow. Industry representatives would like to see ERA based more on probabilistic risk assessment. Recent changes, according to risk assessment and management practitioners have led to an inevitable increase in complexity, which is not perceived as a positive thing, and does not necessarily translate into better risk assessment.     

‘Learning by importing’ in global value chains: upgrading and South–South strategies in the Ugandan pharmaceutical industry

Drawing on global value chain analysis, this article discusses the possibilities for upgrading in a domestically oriented import-dependent industry. The pharmaceutical industry in Uganda consists of a large number of importers, nine of which have upgraded into assembly and four a step further into manufacturing. The industry upgrades by a process of ‘learning by importing’. Although not engaged with global buyers, pharmaceutical producers in Uganda are tied into the global pharmaceutical value chain by international linkages with their suppliers, mainly in India, from whom they access technology and intermediates for production. Hence, this industry is based on South–South networks for production of low-value pharmaceutical products. With the globalisation of the pharmaceutical industry, an increasing number of global lead firms are ceasing to manufacture these products. This study illustrates an alternative form of industrialisation and upgrading that has not been adequately considered in the development of the African pharmaceutical industry.     

Prediction of outstanding payments in a Poisson cluster model

We consider a simple Poisson cluster model for the payment numbers and the corresponding total payments for insurance claims arriving in a given year. Due to the Poisson structure one can give reasonably explicit expressions for the prediction of the payment numbers and total payments in future periods given the past observations of the payment numbers. One can also derive reasonably explicit expressions for the corresponding prediction errors. In the (a, b) class of Panjer's claim size distributions, these expressions can be evaluated by simple recursive algorithms. We study the conditions under which the predictions are asymptotically linear as the number of past payments becomes large. We also demonstrate that, in other regimes, the prediction may be far from linear. For example, a staircase-like pattern may arise as well. We illustrate how the theory works on real-life data, also in comparison with the chain ladder method.     

The Effect of Investor Status on Investors' Susceptibility to Earnings Fixation

This study investigates whether an individual's status as a current or a prospective investor affects the investor's susceptibility to earnings fixation and proposes a mechanism to reduce earnings fixation. Our experimental results suggest that current investors are more susceptible to earnings fixation than prospective investors, and that current investors can reduce earnings fixation by explicitly forecasting future earnings as part of their evaluation process. We provide theory‐consistent evidence that current investors' prevention focus makes them elevate the importance of summary earnings in their evaluation of a company. However, after forecasting future earnings, current investors view summary earnings as only one of several similarly important evaluation inputs rather than as one substantially more important input (relative to its components). Our study contributes to research on earnings fixation and investor status. We also contribute to practice by documenting the moderating effect of investor status on earnings fixation and by identifying a simple mechanism that current investors can use to reduce their susceptibility to earnings fixation.