Foot-and-mouth Disease and Trade Restrictions: Latin American Access to Pacific Rim Beef Markets

Owing to their eradication of foot-and-mouth disease Argentina and Uruguay have recently been granted access to the fresh beef markets of the United States and Canada. This raises the prospect of Latin American suppliers gaining access to other Pacific Rim markets, and of increasing the integration of the Pacific and non-Pacific beef markets. A two-commodity spatial equilibrium model is constructed for the base year 1995. Projections are then made for the year 2001 under various policy and other scenarios. In some instances, major changes in trade patterns may result.     

The distribution of returns from land efficiency improvement in multistage production systems

This paper assesses the distributional consequences of technical changes that improve the efficiency of land and of other inputs in a multifactor crop‐production system. We introduced an equilibrium displacement model (EDM) by using the specification of a factor‐augmenting approach. Given the uncertainty about the EDM parameters, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to produce a distribution of possible return measures. We found that land suppliers (likely farmers) receive a larger share (73%) of total benefits from the adoption of land‐technical change than they do from the adoption of other input technologies. Each input supplier receives a larger share of total benefits from technical change in her own input. However, this result is sensitive to the value of the parameters, especially the value of the elasticity of substitution. We applied the EDM to the case of no‐tillage (NT) to provide insight into how the aggregate return from the adoption of NT was distributed among different groups on the Canadian Prairies. The results of this study can be used by policymakers and funding agencies in order to influence landowners and farming communities to adopt environmentally sound land technologies to achieve both greater agricultural productivity and sustainability.     

Predictive performance of the World Bank's commodity price projections

The World Bank's commodity price projections are widely used for various planning purposes. Two aspects of the Bank's projections of relative prices are studied in this paper. The first is whether the forecasts make efficient use of the information available at the time the forecast is made. The second is whether the forecasts predict future prices with greater accuracy than alternative forecasting methods. These matters are studied by comparing the World Bank's past price projections with the actual prices that were subsequently observed. The results show that, overall, the World Bank forecasts do not pass either test. First, the World Bank forecasts are informationally inefficient. Prediction error (projection minus actual price) tends to be positively correlated with the projections themselves. Although the direction of future price movements tends to be correctly predicted, the magnitude of these movements tends to be overpredicted. Second, the World Bank forecasts do not perform well even compared with the simplest of alternative forecasting methods - the prediction of no change.     

Evaluation of Agri‐Environmental Programs: Can We Determine If We Grew Forward in an Environmentally Friendly Way?

The environmental elements of the quinquennial agricultural policy frameworks are probably the largest agri‐environmental programs in Canada and have been running for about 15 years. Formal evaluation of their effectiveness has either not been done, or is not available for researchers and policy analysts to compare with other agri‐environmental policy efforts. This address introduces this problem and attempts to examine evaluative approaches using Alberta's Growing Forward 1 and 2 environmental stewardship programs. While this attempt has uncovered significant data issues, there is evidence that program managers targeted funds to areas where water quality risks are of concern. The review also questions the requirement that producers eligible for funding must have an Environmental Farm Plan. After 15 years of having this requirement, I argue that it's time for Alberta's environmental stewardship program to relax this. Les éléments environnementaux des cadres politiques agricoles quinquennaux représentent probablement les plus vastes programmes agroenvironnementaux au Canada et opèrent depuis environ quinze ans. L'évaluation formelle de leur efficacité n'a soit pas été entreprise, ou n'est pas disponible pour les chercheurs et analystes politiques afin qu'ils les comparent à d'autres efforts en matière de politique agroenvironnementale. Cet énoncé présente ce problème et tente d'examiner les approches évaluatives utilisées par les programmes albertains de gérance environnementale Cultivons l'avenir 1 et 2. S'il est vrai que cette tentative a révélé de considérables problèmes de données, des preuves démontrent que les gestionnaires de programmes dirigeaient les fonds vers les régions où la qualité de l'eau est en jeu. L'évaluation s'interroge aussi au sujet de l'exigence selon laquelle les producteurs admissibles au financement doivent présenter un plan agroenvironnemental. Ayant été requise pendant quinze ans, je propose que le programme de gérance environnementale de l'Alberta assouplisse cette exigence.     

Evaluating an Agricultural Extension Program Aimed at Improving Biodiversity in Alberta,Canada

We evaluate an agricultural extension program aimed at increasing on‐farm biodiversity in Alberta. Using reports prepared for program participants by the extension agency, customized surveys were used to collect data on whether recommended practices were adopted. Data were also collected from producers who were willing but unable to participate in the program due to its unexpected cancellation. A count model compared the number of practices adopted by participants and nonparticipants to evaluate the program's efficacy, and a probit model using participants’ adoption data were used to understand factors affecting adoption. Simple, low‐cost, and easily trialed practices were adopted at high rates, though some higher cost practices associated with observable benefits were also adopted at moderate or high rates. Farm‐specific characteristics, such as size, tenure, or group membership were also significantly linked to the likelihood of adoption. Results suggest that the extension program was successful in encouraging adoption of environmentally beneficial practices with caveats; project completion and quality were not verified, and decreasing marginal returns to extension efforts may have been realized within the small participant pool. Nous évaluons un programme d'éducation permanente en agriculture visant l'augmentation de la biodiversité fermière en Alberta. Utilisant des rapports préparés par les agences d'éducation pour les participants de programmes, des sondages individualisés ont servi à la collecte de données concernant l'adoption de pratiques recommandées. Des données ont aussi été recueillies auprès de producteurs qui auraient voulu participer mais qui n'ont pas profité du programme suivant son annulation inattendue. Un modèle de comptage a servi à comparer le nombre de pratiques adoptées par les participants et non‐participants pour évaluer l'efficacité du programme, et un modèle probit basé sur les données d'adoption par les participants a servi à comprendre les facteurs ayant un impact sur l'adoption. Les pratiques simples, peu coûteuses et faciles à tester ont été hautement adoptées. Certaines pratiques à coûts plus élevés, associées à des avantages observables, ont aussi vu des taux moyens et élevés d'adoption. Les caractéristiques spécifiques aux exploitations agricoles comme la taille, la longévité et l'adhésion à un groupe se sont aussi trouvées liées de façon significative aux probabilités d'adoption. Les résultats suggèrent que le programme d'éducation permanente a réussi à encourager l'adoption de pratiques bénéfiques pour l'environnement avec quelques bémols: la réalisation des projets et leur qualité n'ont pas fait l'objet de vérification, et la diminution des rendements marginaux en fonction des efforts d'éducation pourrait avoir été réalisée dans le cadre d'un petit bassin de participants.