Ricardian equivalence and fiscal distortions in the Dominican Republic

This paper tests the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in the context of the Dominican Republic (DR). The results rejected the Ricardian theorem but a weaker version is shown to have significant implications for the DR. If the government borrows to increase spending, private consumption is crowded out and the economy will suffer in the long run. The outcome is worst if the government borrows to deliver a tax cut. In particular, for every RD$ 1.00 of additional debt incurred to finance government primary spending, private consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) fall by a meaningful RD$ 2.15 and RD$ 1.15 respectively. If the debt is used to finance the tax cut, the fall is RD$ 2.15 in both consumption and output. Interestingly, if the government uses taxes to cover a budget deficit, the effect is neutral and consistent with Ricardian equivalence. The paper argues that fiscal distortions are in part responsible for these multipliers. Distortions are estimated to be 21 % coming from different sources including taxes evasion and fiscal drainage. These findings suggest that the DR could benefit from either reducing the level of fiscal distortions or the size and scope of the Dominican government. If, however, the government continues to pursue an active fiscal role under the current environment, it will generate an unnecessary burden to consumption and economic growth.     

Legislative Bargaining and Coalition Formation

The finite horizon version of D. P. Baron and J. Ferejohn's [1989, Amer. Polit. Sci. Rev.83, 1181-1206] legislative bargaining model is investigated. With three or more periods, a continuum of divisions is supportable as subgame perfect equilib- ria. There exist equilibria where coalitions larger than a minimal winning coalition receive strictly positive shares. With sufficiently patient players and a sufficiently long horizon, any interior distribution is supportable as an equilibrium. In contrast, a generic uniqueness result applies when introducing heterogenous time preferences. The unique backwards induction equilibrium in the perturbed game is nonstationary, and neither the original (symmetric) nor the perturbed game provides guidance for equilibrium selection in the infinite game. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C73, C78, D72, D78, H49.     

The Population Dimension in the Intergenerational Reports

The demographic assumptions and outcomes in the three successive Intergenerational Reports have differed enormously. This has brought a degree of derision upon the production of these reports in the serious press. Furthermore, the Intergenerational Reports’ projections of labour force participation rates have proven to be very wrong in the short term. The fourth Intergenerational Report will need to address this credibility gap. This article analyses the reasons that the Intergenerational Reports’ projections have been wide of the mark and makes suggestions about future approaches.     

INTERNATIONAL WELFARE AND EMPLOYMENT LINKAGES ARISING FROM MINIMUM WAGES*

We formulate a two‐country model with monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms to reconsider labor market linkages in open economies. Labor market imperfections arise by virtue of country‐specific real minimum wages. Abstracting from selection of just the best firms into export status, standard effects on marginal and average firm productivity are reversed in our model, yet there are significant gains from trade arising from employment expansion. In addition, we show that with firm heterogeneity an increase in one country’s minimum wage triggers firm exit in both countries and thus harms workers at home and abroad.     

Inequality and volatility moderation in Russia: Evidence from micro-level panel data on consumption and income

We construct key household and individual economic variables using a panel micro data set from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) for 1994–2005. We analyze cross-sectional income and consumption inequality trends and find that inequality decreased during the 2000–2005 economic recovery. The decrease appears to be driven by falling volatility of transitory income shocks. The response of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks becomes weaker later in the sample, consistent with greater self-insurance against permanent shocks and greater smoothing of transitory shocks. Finally, expenditure and income inequality in Russia are not far apart.     

Bilateral and Third‐Country Exchange Rate Effects on Multinational Activity

In an earlier paper, we showed that bilateral exchange rates are important determinants of multinational activity of both the US and Japan and that increases in the bilateral and third‐country exchange rates exert opposing effects on bilateral multinational activity. Furthermore, the signs of the exchange rate coefficients differ between Japan and the US. In this paper, we formulate a three‐country model with coexisting exporters and multinational firms that engage in Cournot competition to rationalize these effects. In this model, we identify two counteracting effects which govern the bilateral and third‐country effects of an exchange rate increase on bilateral multinational activity. Our theoretical framework is flexible enough to explain the Japanese as well as the US patterns of exchange rate effects and it allows us to identify those factors that are responsible for the respective differences.     

Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth

This paper presents a trade model with firm‐level productivity differences and R&D‐driven growth. Trade liberalization causes the least productive firms to exit but also slows the development of new products. The overall effect on productivity growth depends on the size of intertemporal knowledge spillovers in R&D. When these spillovers are relatively weak, then trade liberalization promotes productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers better off in the long run. However, when these spillovers are relatively strong, then trade liberalization retards productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers worse off in the long run.     

Workplace organization and innovation

Abstract This study uses panel data on Canadian establishments to explore the relationship between the organization of work – in particular decentralization, information‐sharing, and incentive pay schemes – and innovation. Like other studies, ours finds a clear positive link between these factors. However, the data give strong indications that this relationship is not causal. We show that: (1) the correlation between workplace organization and innovation holds for information‐sharing but is much weaker for decentralized decision‐making or incentive pay programs, (2) controls for unobserved heterogeneity significantly weaken results, and (3) lagged variables give no clear evidence that organizational changes predate innovation.     

Determinants of the adjusted net saving rate in developing economies

The adjusted net saving rate, initially known as the genuine saving rate, was first published by the World Bank in the late 1990s as a more comprehensive measure of national saving and one more indicative of sustainable development. The adjusted net saving rate incorporated not just physical capital depreciation, but natural capital depletion and environmental damage, as well as including some human capital formation. In this paper, using a cross‐section of developing economies for 2001–2006, determinants of the adjusted net saving rate are estimated. For comparison, the same determinants for the gross national saving rate are estimated. Also, a basic Solow growth model is extended to incorporate natural resources and to justify a more comprehensive measure of savings, such as the adjusted net saving rate, for modeling economic growth. The two measures of savings are then compared as determinants in estimations of economic growth. Understanding the determinants of the adjusted net saving rate is useful for policies to promote sustainable development.     

Characterizing Pareto Improvements in an Interdependent Demand System

Interdependent preferences generally imply Pareto inefficiency. For a general demand system, we provide a characterization of Pareto improvements. For a prominent parametric specification, the Linear Expenditure System, we characterize in detail the welfare loss associated with interdependent preferences. Using an estimated empirical model of this kind, we calculate the compensating variation corresponding to the welfare loss.