Predictive performance of the World Bank's commodity price projections

The World Bank's commodity price projections are widely used for various planning purposes. Two aspects of the Bank's projections of relative prices are studied in this paper. The first is whether the forecasts make efficient use of the information available at the time the forecast is made. The second is whether the forecasts predict future prices with greater accuracy than alternative forecasting methods. These matters are studied by comparing the World Bank's past price projections with the actual prices that were subsequently observed. The results show that, overall, the World Bank forecasts do not pass either test. First, the World Bank forecasts are informationally inefficient. Prediction error (projection minus actual price) tends to be positively correlated with the projections themselves. Although the direction of future price movements tends to be correctly predicted, the magnitude of these movements tends to be overpredicted. Second, the World Bank forecasts do not perform well even compared with the simplest of alternative forecasting methods - the prediction of no change.     

Das auch noch? Deflation als Folge der Finanzkrise

Zusammenfassung  Der weltweite Nachfrageeinbruch im Gefolge der Finanzkrise l?sst befürchten, dass die Preise auf breiter Front sinken. Dem scheint die Geldpolitik jedoch mit verschiedenen Instrumenten begegnen zu k?nnen. Welche M?glichkeiten haben die Zentralbanken über die traditionelle Geldpolitik hinaus? Was lehrt uns das japanische Beispiel? Welche makro?konomische Strategie ist jetzt angebracht? Prof. Dr. Peter Kalmbach, 69, war bis 2005 Hochschullehrer für Wirtschaftswissenschaft mit dem Schwerpunkt Verteilungstheorie und Verteilungspolitik an der Universit?t Bremen.     

Can Capital Income Taxes Survive? And Should They?

The article surveys some main results in the theory of capitalincome taxation in the open economy; reviews recent trends ininternational taxation and discusses alternative blueprintsfor fundamental capital income tax reform from the perspectiveof an open economy faced with growing mobility of capital incometax bases. (JEL code: H21, H25)