Time banditry: Examining the purloining of time in organizations

Time banditry, a variant of counterproductive work behavior, is defined as the propensity of employees to engage in non-work related activities during work time. We extend past research on time banditry in two ways. First, we develop a model of time banditry. It is posited that a significant number of employees engage in time banditry despite their level of engagement with their job and even when productivity levels remain at an acceptable level. Implications of the model are described and testable propositions are developed. Second, we suggest that time bandits as a group are not monolithic, but instead there are at least four types of bandits. Supervisors need to manage each type with different human resource management practices.     

A Bayesian analysis of market information linkages among NAFTA countries using a multivariate stochastic volatility model

NAFTA has arguably been the most important and elaborate free-trade agreement in history, providing a blueprint for potential new agreements. So far, the evidence is mixed as to whether NAFTA has been successful in terms of its economic impact. We fit a multivariate stochastic volatility model that directly measures financial information linkages across the three participating countries in a trivariate setting. The model detects significant changes in information linkages across the countries from the pre- to post-NAFTA period with a high degree of reliability. This has implications not only for measuring these linkages but also for hedging and portfolio diversification policies. An MCMC procedure is used to fit the model, and the accuracy and robustness of the method is confirmed by simulations.     

HOW BELIEFS ABOUT HIV STATUS AFFECT RISKY BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM MALAWI

This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior, as measured by having extramarital sex and/or multiple sex partners. The empirical analysis is based on a panel survey of males from the 2006 and 2008 rounds of the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP). The paper develops a behavioral model of the belief‐risky behavior relationship and estimates the causal effect of beliefs on risky behavior using the Arellano and Carrasco (2003) semiparametric panel data estimator, which accommodates both unobserved heterogeneity and belief endogeneity arising from a possible dependence of current beliefs on past risky behavior. Results show that downward revisions in the belief assigned to being HIV positive increase risky behavior and upward revisions decrease it. For example, based on a linear specification, a decrease in the perceived probability of being HIV positive from 10 to 0 percentage points increases the probability of engaging in risky behavior (extramarital affairs) from 8.3 to 14.1 percentage points. We also develop and implement a modified version of the Arellano and Carrasco (2003) estimator to allow for misreporting of risky behavior and find estimates to be robust to a range of plausible misreporting levels. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Applied Econometrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monetary policy committees and interest rate setting

This paper shows that it is preferable for monetary policy to be conducted by a committee instead of a single policy maker if there is uncertainty about potential output. We examine three decision procedures - an optimal procedure, averaging and voting - and find that the latter is the appropriate way to reach decisions if policy makers are not equally skilled. Finally, we demonstrate that efficient decision procedures reduce the persistence of shocks.     

Creative destruction on the Chechen frontier?

The economic performance of Chechnya is examined for the first time using an aggregate stochastic frontier production function method. The 15 sectors of the economy are found to be quite inefficient in the use of capital and labour to produce aggregate output. Extensive growth is likely to continue though at a lower rate as federal subsidies from Moscow end. Intensive growth is unlikely given the lack of foreign investment and the authoritarian political system. Some evidence for the emergence of a market economy is found, suggesting that Kadyrov has overseen an economic transition.     

Social and family load of Alzheimer’s disease

As the World Health Organization reports, mental illnesses have a serious impact on more than 25% of all population people worldwide at some time during their lives. Mental illnesses are universal; they affect people of any age, both women and men, the rich and the poor, no matter from which urban and rural environment they come from. Mental illnesses have an enormous economic effect on societies and on the quality of people’s life, including their families. The purpose of this study is to describe social and economic aspects of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) with respect to the early diagnosis. The authors provide an analysis of costs of treatment and care in the selected countries where the data from the available studies are recalculated into comparable quantities. Furthermore, the authors analyse aspects and possibilities of care for patients with AD in the informal (home) environment in compliance with individual phases of this disease. In the article, the method of research of available sources focusing on social and economic issues of AD is used. In order to compare costs of treatment and care of the AD patients, the Qualitative Comparative Analysis Method is exploited. The analyses have shown that the metric systems for monitoring the direct and indirect costs for the individual phases of AD are different.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

1987: AIDS erreicht Deutschland

When, and how, was the issue of AIDS first established in the broad population in (West-)Germany? Our case study shows that 〉Bild〈 (the leading national tabloid newspaper) may have played an important part in establishing the issue. The people’s concern about AIDS runs astonishingly parallel with the intensity of coverage in 〉Bild〈. Even priming effects, such as the number of HIV-Tests performed, appear to be inspired by 〉Bild〈. At the same time, it becomes clear that coverage in 〉Bild〈 did not necessarily follow topical events.     

The Impact of Spatial Interpolation Techniques on Spatial Basis Risk for Weather Insurance: An Application to Forage Crops

Weather index insurance for crops is at the developmental stage, however, this type of insurance is particularly susceptible to the problem of spatial basis risk. Spatial basis risk occurs when the weather observed at weather stations does not match the weather experienced on the farmer’s property, causing improper indemnities to be paid to the farmer. However, spatial basis risk may be reduced through the use of averaging and spatial interpolation techniques, such as inverse distance weighting and kriging. These techniques make it possible to incorporate multiple weather stations in the estimation process rather than using only the single closest station, potentially resulting in more accurate estimations and thereby reducing spatial basis risk. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the extent to which the choice of spatial interpolation techniques can influence the amount of spatial basis risk in a weather-based insurance model. Using forage crops from the province of Ontario, Canada, as an example, a weather insurance index is developed based on cooling degree days. The weather index represents the heat stress that the crops receive over the growing season. This insurance index is used to determine to what extent spatial basis risk can be reduced by the insurer’s choice of spatial interpolation technique. Seven different interpolation methods are applied to temperature data from Ontario, and theoretical indemnities are calculated for forage producers across the province. By analyzing the correlation between the estimated indemnities and reported forage yields, the amount of spatial basis risk in each model is quantified. The results of this study highlight the importance of choosing an appropriate method based on the characteristics of the target region (and data). Operationally this is important because insurers typically apply the same interpolation methods across an entire region. While one finding of this research may suggest that governments and/or insurance companies may wish to invest in additional weather stations to improve the accuracy of the interpolation method and index, this may not be feasible in practice. Given this, future research may consider utilizing satellite-based remote sensing weather estimates to augment the weather station data and reduce basis risk.