How effective could sanctions against the Soviet Union be?

Zusammenfassung Wie wirksam k?nnten Sanktionen gegen die Sowjetunion sein ? — Der Zweck dieses Aufsatzes ist es, zun?chst optimale Strategien zu untersuchen, die nicht-kausale Wirkungen zulassen, wie sie in einem dynamischen und unbeschr?nkt nicht-kooperativen Spiel impliziert sind. Au\erdem soll die Bedeutung des Einwands der “Nicht-Kausalit?t” in der Praxis beurteilt werden. Wir verwenden ein Optimierungsverfahren, um optimale westliche Handelssanktionen gegenüber der Sowjetunion zu bestimmen. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, da\ die sowjetische Wirtschaft tats?chlich mehr von einer wirtschaftlichen Entspannung, die den Handel verst?rkt, zu befürchten hat als von einem Handelsembargo. Aber die Hauptwaffe ist die Drohung eines zukünftigen Embargos, die deshalb wirksam wird, weil die optimalen sowjetischen Reaktionen auf dieses erwartete Risiko zu einer rapiden Verschlechterung der laufenden Handelsbilanz führen. Der Handelsbilanz kommt ein hoher Stellenwert zu, weil die Entwicklungsstrategie zum Erreichen der sowjetischen Ziele einer Erh?hung von Wachstum, Produktivit?t und Konsum von der Einfuhr ausl?ndischer Güter stark abh?ngt und daher automatisch der westlichen Seite ein wichtiges Pfand in die Hand gibt.

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Résumé Quelle efficacité pourraient avoir des sanctions contre l’Union Soviétique ? — Le but de cet article est, premièrement, d’examiner des stratégies optimum qui considèrent les effets non-causaux implicitement contenus dans un jeu dynamique et sans restriction non-coopératif et, deuxièmement, de donner une estimation de l’importance de la critique ?non-causalité? en pratique. Nous appliquons une procédure d’optimisation pour désigner des sanctions commerciales optimum d’ouest contre l’Union Soviétique. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’économie soviétique en effet devrait craindre plus une détente économique qui augmente le commerce extérieur et moins un embargo commercial. Mais l’arme principale est la menace d’un embargo futur parce que les réactions soviétiques optimales à ce risque anticipé causent une détérioration très rapide de la balance courante de commerce extérieur de l’U.R.S.S. Cette balance est très importante parce que la stratégie de développement pour atteindre le but soviétique d’augmenter la croissance, la productivité et la consommation implique des demandes supplémentaires à la balance commerciale.

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Resumen Cuál es el grado de eficiencia de las sanciones contra la Unión Soviética? — La intención del trabajo es en primer lugar el examinar estrategias óptimas que tengan en cuenta efectos no causales implícites en un juego dinámico no cooperativo sin restricciones y en segundo lugar el presentar una valoración de la importancia de la critica de ?falta de causalidad? en la práctica. Se emplea un procedimiento de optimización para dise?ar sanciones comerciales óptimas contra la Unión Soviética. Los resultados ponen de manifiesto como la Unión Soviética ha de temer más una paz económica que incremente el comercio que un bloqueo comercial. El arma principal es sin embargo la amenaza de un bloqueo futuro, su efectividad debida a que la mejor reacción Soviética ante este riesgo anticipado origina una rápida deterioración de la balanza exterior por cuenta corriente. La estrategia de desarrollo para los fines soviéticos de mayor crecimiento, productividad y consumo, supone demandas adicionales sobre la balanza exterior lo que por fortuna supone automáticamente un importante rehén en manos de Occidente.

     

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