FINANCIAL REGULATION,THE STATE AND THE MARKET: IS THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AUTHORITY AN UNNECESSARY EVIL?

The most successful stock exchanges developed without detailed regulation by the state. This article examines the role of the FSA in regulating stock market activity and finds that the justification for a statutory regulator is very weak. Indeed, one of the functions of a stock exchange is the development of a safe (private) regulatory environment for those using the exchange. Stock exchanges should be allowed to compete on the basis of the regulatory services they provide as it is only through a process of competition that regulation can be improved.     

Horizon‐Dependent Underreaction in Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts*

This paper provides empirical evidence that underreaction in financial analysts' earnings forecasts increases with the forecast horizon, and offers a rational economic explanation for this result. The empirical portion of the paper evaluates analysts' responses to earnings‐surprise and other earnings‐related information. Our empirical evidence suggests that analysts' earnings forecasts underreact to both types of information, and the underreaction increases with the forecast horizon. The paper also develops a theoretical model that explains this horizon‐dependent analyst underreaction as a rational response to an asymmetric loss function. The model assumes that, for a given level of inaccuracy, analysts' reputations suffer more (less) when subsequent information causes a revision in investor expectations in the opposite (same) direction as the analyst's prior earnings‐forecast revision. Given this asymmetric loss function, underreaction increases with the risk of subsequent disconfirming information and with the disproportionate cost associated with revision reversal. Assuming that market frictions prevent prices from immediately unraveling these analyst underreac‐tion tactics, investors buying (selling) stock on the basis of analysts' positive (negative) earnings‐forecast revisions also benefit from analyst underreaction. Therefore, the asymmetric cost of forecast inaccuracy could arise from rational investor incentives consistent with a preference for analyst underreaction. Our incentives‐based explanation for underreaction provides an alternative to psychology‐based explanations and suggests avenues for further research.     

Inframarginal values and demand: Contra Dwight Lee

Happiness studies show that there has been no discernable rise in happiness in the United States between 1959 and 2004, yet the same period saw per capita income nearly triple. Dwight Lee modifies the theory of consumer demand to resolve this apparent conflict. Using the concepts of consumer surplus and rising incomes causing demand shifts, Lee posits that the law of downward sloping demand only fleetingly applies. He hypothesizes that the values of all units consumed become the same as the value of the last unit soon after the change in income. This makes the demand curve horizontal for all units consumed, and that makes the existence of consumer surplus ephemeral. There are difficulties with this; some are: (1) His formulation gives rise to predictions that are at odds with commonly observed market phenomena; (2) The attempted resolution is quixotic because the theory of demand and consumer surplus holds time, place, and circumstances constant, while happiness surveys do not and, indeed, cannot hold things constant over decades; and (3) because standard economic theory is timeless it is inapplicable to many phenomena that occur over extended periods.     

Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self-sufficiency in China

Over the past 20 years the growth of China's agricultural economy has been extraordinary. However, it seems unlikely that China will maintain self‐sufficiency in grains by 2005 without substantial intervention. We develop a CGE model to assess the options available to Chinese policy makers. We compare the welfare effects of import tariffs and domestic support, and explore the potential of biotechnology as a means to achieve self‐sufficiency through improvements in agricultural productivity. Our results indicate that the price interventions that would be required to maintain China's desired self‐sufficiency ratios are considerable, and are unlikely to be compatible with WTO accession. The productivity improvements required are also significant, and likely beyond the current potential of biotechnology.     

Patients' Voices, Rights and Responsibilities: On Implementing Social Audit in Primary Health Care

This paper reports on an interpretive research project which examines the feasibility of implementing social audit within the general medical practice setting. The study aims to communicate patients' voices to aid evaluation of the potential contribution of social audit to the public health sector and also addresses particular conceptual problems which arise when attempting to implement social audit within this environment. The fieldwork focuses on one general health practice in Lanarkshire (in southern central Scotland). Consultative focus group discussions and individual interviews were carried out with a sample of twenty two patients. Patients were most concerned with health service organisational and delivery issues. Overall, the results suggest patients are enthusiastic about the ideas and process of the social audit. Patients were able to demonstrate a capacity for grasping accountability issues and balanced reasoning. There was an acute awareness of the constraints which exist in the public services. Patients addressed the broad rights and responsibilities issues, and highlighted the possible pitfalls of relying on a representational mechanism for ensuring their voices were heard. The study concludes that an involved and negotiative dialogue process of implementing social audit could provide beneficial understanding and ideas to the organisation which may be further researched.     

Disclosure of the impacts of adopting Australian equivalents of International Financial Reporting Standards

This study investigates two disclosure variables (Extent and Quality) in relation to compliance with paragraph 4.1 (b) of AASB 1047 Disclosing the Impacts of Adopting Australian Equivalents to International Financial Reporting Standards. Using a sample of 150 Australian listed firms, I find that the extent and quality of disclosure is influenced by firm size, leverage and auditor firm size, with the latter variable being the most significant. In general, the results suggest that many companies might have relied on sample disclosures provided by their auditors, perhaps limiting both quality and intent. Additionally, the ultimate usefulness of broad and imprecise standards might be questionable. Smaller companies might also require more guidance and assistance with their preparation for the adoption.     

Distribution dynamics: stratification, polarization, and convergence among OECD economies, 1870-1992

Using a distribution dynamics approach, the growth experience of 17 OECD economies is investigated. After explaining the distribution dynamics approach, the empirical analysis examines both the observed period dynamics and the unique long-run equilibrium associated with three periods. This study suggests persistence and stratification, not convergence, characterized the pre-1914 regime, whereas convergence was the key feature of the post-war regime. However, a larger sample of OECD economies in the post-war period indicates that convergence was primarily a feature of the Golden Age and in the post-Golden Age period separation, polarization, and divergence came to the fore.     

A note on the role of memory in commercial loan officers' use of accounting and character information

A concept called “the five C's of credit” is the basis of a theory about the role of memory in loan officers' credit analysis. It is predicted that recall of two related types of information, accounting and information about borrowers' character, is greater when facts are consistent with loan decisions and judgments than when they are inconsistent. Results of an experiment support the prediction when information consistency is denned relative to decisions whether to approve or deny loans, but not when it is related to judgments of the risk of nonpayment.