Tourist Perception of Crowding and Management Approaches at Tourism Sites in Xi'an

Tourism crowding management is an important part of sustainable development at tourist attractions. This study seeks to recognize visitors' perceptions of crowding and then identify tourism crowding management approaches for tourism sites in Xi'an, western China. Three kinds of study, which were designed using quantitative and qualitative techniques, were undertaken in Xi'an. In the first two studies the actual numbers of visitors at component parts of five tourist attractions were recorded. Next, visitor responses to these kinds of levels of crowding were assessed. In the third study senior managers were interviewed and asked to explain their approaches to crowding management. Taken together, the information collected from the three studies helped build a model that plots the driving forces shaping tourism crowding at tourism sites.     

Basket trading under co-integration with the logistic mixture autoregressive model

In this paper, we propose a co-integration model with a logistic mixture auto-regressive equilibrium error (co-integrated LMAR), in which the equilibrium relationship among cumulative returns of different financial assets is modelled by a logistic mixture autoregressive time series model. The traditional autoregression (AR) based unit root test (ADF test), used in testing co-integration, cannot give a sound explanation when a time series passes the ADF test. However, its largest root in the AR polynomial is extremely close to, but less than, one, which is most likely the result of a mixture of random-walk and mean-reverting processes in the time series data. With this background, we put an LMAR model into the co-integration framework to identify baskets that have a large spread but are still well co-integrated. A sufficient condition for the stationarity of the LMAR model is given and proved using a Markovian approach. A two-step estimating procedure, combining least-squares estimation and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, is given. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is used in model selection. The co-integrated LMAR model is applied to basket trading, which is a widely used tool for arbitrage. We use simulation to assess the model in basket trading strategies with the statistical arbitrage feature in equity markets. Data from several sectors of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index are used in a simulation study on basket trading. Empirical results show that a portfolio using the co-integrated LMAR model has a higher return than portfolios selected by traditional methods. Although the volatility in the return increases, the Sharpe ratio also increases in most cases. This risk–return profile can be explained by the shorter converging period in the co-integrated LMAR model and the larger volatility in the ‘mean-reverting’ regime.     

Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves

The reported analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities, it is found that the simultaneous estimation approach accounts for the abrupt changes in implied volatility associated with limit moves and generates more accurate price forecasts than conventional methods that rely on only one implied variable.     

Fiscal decentralization and economic growth in the OECD

What impact, if any, does Fiscal Decentralization (FD) have on economic growth? Further investigations of the inter-relationships between FD and economic growth are timely given that government decentralization remains at the forefront of many Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) policy agendas. This study incorporates a range of measures of FD to better account for the direct impact of different levels of subnational fiscal autonomy on economic growth. The analysis also considers the impact of previously omitted public sector decentralization variables that provide further indication of the extent to which Subnational Governments (SNG) are ‘closer to the people’ and potentially better able to account for local preferences in fiscal decision-making. Whilst little evidence of a direct relationship between FD and output growth is found, some evidence is found to suggest that federal systems tend to have lower growth rates than do unitary states, independent of their degree of decentralization, and that countries with more elected tiers of government generally have lower economic growth.     

Emigration,wage differentials and brain drain: the case of Suriname

In this article, we examine two hypotheses concerning emigration. The first hypothesis is that emigration is positively correlated with wage differentials. The second hypothesis concerns a positive correlation between emigration and higher education in the sending country (the so-called brain gain hypothesis). We analyse unique time-series data for Suriname for the period 1972–2009, for which we fit error correction models to disentangle short-run from long-run effects. We document moderate support for the first hypothesis, but we find strong support for the brain drain (and not brain gain) hypothesis. We conclude with implications of our findings for Suriname.     

Pathways from discovery to commercialisation: using web sources to track small and medium-sized enterprise strategies in emerging nanotechnologies

This paper presents results from a pilot study of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) based on a web-scraping and content analysis of current and archived nanotechnology enterprise websites. We use this approach to explore nanotechnology SMEs transitions from discovery to commercialisation and understand how transitions vary by SME characteristics, technology and market sectors. Our findings suggest that although the idealised linear innovation model is present, important instances of divergence exist. Cluster analysis uncovered sectoral differences but even more distinctions based on the age, funding source, and research intensity.     

Inhibition of Brand Integration amid Changing Agency Structures

The all‐important focus upon brands and brand success is underpinned – of necessity – by well‐designed and well‐executed integrated marketing communications (IMC). This qualitative paper explores perceptions of IMC in relation to branding within senior UK‐based advertising and public relations agencies in terms of current perceptions, implementation, coordination, evaluation, barriers, budgetary issues, decision‐making; and managerial implications for the future of IMC. The paper describes the findings from a series of depth interviews with senior executives from leading advertising and public relations agencies. While the findings do indicate the presence of ongoing barriers to the adoption and usage of integrated solutions, these barriers are as much an issue to do with clients as with the agencies themselves. Nonetheless, there seems to be an issue concerned with remodelling working practices to accommodate new and seamless ways of working creatively across all promotional mix elements. Thus, while the principles of integrated marketing communications are sound, the actual mechanisms for application still need further work –in terms of both application and measurement, and the need for in‐depth research. We also endorse and reiterate oft‐repeated calls for research with client organizations.     

What drives the disappearing dividends phenomenon?

We study the determinants of dividend payout policy and examine the role of liquidity, risk and catering in explaining the changes in propensity to pay. Our results indicate that risk plays a major role in firms’ dividend policy. The evidence substantiates from a large sample of firms representing 18 countries over the sample period from 1989 to 2011. For firms in the US, France, UK and Other European markets, liquidity is additionally an important determinant of dividend policy. We find that, although catering incentives persist only among firms in common law countries and not in civil law countries, after adjusting for risk there is little support for catering theory even among firms incorporated in common law countries. Our results indicate that catering incentives reflect the risk-reward relationship in the changing propensity to pay dividends.