Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.     

Partial Pooling at the Reserve Price in Auctions with Resale Opportunities

Two features common to many auctions are the use of reserve prices and the existence of secondary markets for the goods being sold. Even in simple symmetric settings, the combination of these features can preclude existence of an equilibrium in symmetric separating bidding strategies. With a reserve price sufficiently far below the maximum (endogenous) valuation, a symmetric equilibrium still exists, but with some types pooling at the reserve. The optimal reserve price depends not only on the joint distribution of bidders' information before and after the auction, but also on how surplus is divided in the secondary market. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D44, C7, L1, D82     

Telematics: Decision Time for Detroit

With implications for navigation, safety, entertainment and vehicle maintenance as well as regulation and infrastructure investment in roads, telematics has the potential to transform driving more than any other innovation for decades. In the already well-established Asian telematics industry, revenue tends to come from extra charges at the time of vehicle-sale, with most subsequent services provided free. The US model has evolved differently, with much of the cost of telematics hardware and software subsidized in the initial vehicle sale price and revenue coming from services used. The decision to invest in telematics is therefore riskier in the US. This article first briefly summarizes the potential of telematics. It then analyzes the investment risks, particularly for automakers. It concludes with recommendations on how the US auto industry can minimize risk and make the most of the opportunities.     

Employment and child-care choices in Canada and the United States

In this paper we examine employment and child-care choices of two-parent families with young children in the United States and Canada, using a pooled data set based on recent national surveys in each country. We find that the employment and child-care choices of Canadian families are similar to those of U.S. families. Estimates of a model of employment and child-care choices indicate significant effects of child-care subsidies, child-care prices, and wage rates on employment and child-care choices. However, none of these factors helps to explain the differences in employment and child-care choices between the two countries.
Ce mémoire examine le choix de l'emploi et du soin des enfants dans les familles où il y deux parents aux Etats-Unis et au Canada en utilisant des données d'études récentes dans les deux pays. Il appert que les choix des familles canadiennes sont semblables à ceux des familles américaines. Les calibrations d'un modèle de ces choix montrent les effets significatifs des subventions au soin des enfants, du prix des soins des enfants, et des taux de salaires sur ces choix. Cependant, aucun de ces facteurs n'explique les diffrences dans les patterns de choix entre les deux pays.     

On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series

We analyze periodic and seasonal cointegration models for bivariate quarterly observed time series in an empirical forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods for those two classes of models. A VAR model in first differences, with and without cointegration restrictions, and a VAR model in annual differences are also included in the analysis, where they serve as benchmark models. Our empirical results indicate that the VAR model in first differences without cointegration is best if one-step ahead forecasts are considered. For longer forecast horizons however, the VAR model in annual differences is better. When comparing periodic versus seasonal cointegration models, we find that the seasonal cointegration models tend to yield better forecasts. Finally, there is no clear indication that multiple equations methods improve on single equation methods.     

The Japanese Crisis — A Case of Strategic Failure?

This paper provides an alternative insight into Japan's current economic problems. We concentrate upon the role played by the economy's central actors, namely Japan's transnational corporations. Since the early 1980's, Japan's transnationals have become dominant players in the global economy, and now have a higher rate of physical investment in new, overseas greenfield sites than their competitors. This has had detrimental consequences for Japan's domestic economy, particularly for small firms who operate in keiretsu networks. This has led to concerns about the 'hollowing out' of Japan's domestic industry raising the possibility of long-term industrial decline and 'strategic failure'.     

Amenities and Fringe Benefits: Omitted Variable Bias

ABSTRACT If labor is fairly mobile, as it is in the United States, one would expect that households would move from less desirable areas toward more desirable areas until all areas are equally desirable. The way that areas become equally desirable is through the impact of movers on wages and rents (and possibly "endogenous" disamenities, such as congestion or pollution). That is, as people move to desirable areas, they will increase the demand for land (raising rents) and increase the supply of labor (lowering wages); in equilibrium, the wage and rent "compensation" for the niceness of an area reveals, in dollar terms, just how nice the area is. Blomquist, Berger, and Hoehn 1988 demonstrated the empirical importance of such amenity compensation in estimates of the "quality-of-life" in urban areas. However, those authors were unable to include fringe benefits, which are about 40 percent of explicit wage payments, in their wage compensation. This matters greatly as amenities are seen here to be even more important than previously thought and the regional implications are pronounced, with the West and Southeast looking "better" when fringe benefits are included and the East North Central and Northeast looking substantially "worse."     

Decision Utility and Anticipated Discrete Emotions: An Investment Decision Model

Integrating theories and findings from various disciplines, we develop a decision utility model to explain how anticipated discrete emotions mediate investment decisions. We illustrate the model with the anticipated discrete emotions of a hypothetical Ponzi scheme investor and suggest practical measures to manage financial risks, emotionally.     

Frontiers of the marketing paradigm in the third millennium

The domain and theories of marketing have been expanding since the origins of the discipline. Since the 1970s marketing science has been organized around the exchange paradigm. Marketing concepts apply to all forms of exchange, whether it is goods, services, personages, places or ideas, and whether it is between individuals, for-profit and nonprofit firms, governments and NGOs. Marketing theories evolved from a firm oriented view to encompass the exchanging dyad. More recently the paradigm expanded to a network level of explanation, and relational theories have come to the fore. But even as the field struggles to grasp its new fields of explanation, there is a Kuhnian shift happening at its boundaries. The shift significantly bends the marketing worldview as well as the theoretical tools and methodologies we use to study it. In this paper we develop a three-tiered explanation of the emerging field of marketing—its subphenomena (consumer experiences and sensory systems), its phenomena (marketing networks), and its superphenomena (sustainability and development).