Revisiting games of incomplete information with analogy-based expectations

This paper studies the effects of analogy-based expectations in static two-player games of incomplete information. Players are assumed to be boundedly rational in the way they forecast their opponent's state-contingent strategy: they bundle states into analogy classes and play best-responses to their opponent's average strategy in those analogy classes. We provide general properties of analogy-based expectation equilibria and apply the model to a variety of well known games. We characterize conditions on the analogy partitions for successful coordination in coordination games under incomplete information [Rubinstein, A., 1989. The electronic mail game: Strategic behavior under ‘almost common knowledge’. Amer. Econ. Rev. 79, 385–391], we show how analogy grouping of the receiver may facilitate information transmission in Crawford and Sobel's cheap talk games [Crawford, V.P., Sobel, J., 1982. Strategic information transmission. Econometrica 50, 1431–1451], and we show how analogy grouping may give rise to betting in zero-sum betting games such as those studied to illustrate the no trade theorem.     

Covered arbitrage margin and transaction costs

Zusammenfassung Gedeckte Arbitragemarge und Transaktionskosten. — Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Rolle der Transaktionskosten bei der Erkl?rung der beobachteten Abweichungen von der gedeckten Zinsparit?t zwischen den amerika-nischen und britischen Schatzwechseln im Rahmen des gegenw?rtigen Systems be-grenzt floatender Wechselkurse. Nach einer kritischen Betrachtung der von Frenkel und Levich erarbeiteten Methode, die relevanten Transaktionskosten zu sch?tzen, wird eine alternative Methode vorgeschlagen, wobei deren Hinweis aufgenommen wird, die Informationen zu nutzen, die sich aus den Abweichungen von der Dreiecks-oder geographischen Wechselkursarbitrage ergeben. Die so ermittelten Sch?tzungen gehen in eine Regressionsanalyse ein, aus der sich ergibt, da die Transaktionskosten eine signifikante Auswirkung auf die gedeckte Arbitragemarge haben, obwohl sie deren Umfang in dem untersuchten Fall nicht voll erkl?ren.

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Résumé La marge d’arbitrage à couvert et les frais de transaction. — Cet article explore le r?le des frais de transaction comme facteur explicatif pour les déviations observées de la parité d’intérêt couverte entre bons du Trésor du Royaume Uni et des Etats-Unis sous le régime actuel des taux de change flottants dirigés. Après une revue critique de la méthode suggérée par Frenkel et Levich pour estimer les frais de transaction d’importance nous proposons une méthode alternative en exploitant de plus leur suggestion d’utiliser l’information donnée par les déviations d’arbitrage triangulaire ou géographique sur les taux de change. Puis nous procédons à utiliser nos estimations dans une analyse de régression qui nous mène à la conclusion que les frais de transaction ont un effet signifiant sur la marge d’arbitrage à couvert bien qu’ils ne l’expliquent pas complètement dans le cas analysé.

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Resumen Márgen de arbitraje cubierto y costos de transaction. — En estel artículo se investiga el rol de los costos de transactión como explicatión para las desviaciones observadas de la tasa de interés de paridad cubierta entre valores del Reino Unido y los EEUU bajo el régimen presente de tasas de cambio flotantes manejadas. Después de una revisión crítica del método desarrollado por Frenkel y Levich para estimar los costos de transacción relevantes, proponemos un método alternativo explotando más aún la sugerencia de usar la información provista por las desviaciones del arbitraje triangular o geográfico sobre las tasas de cambio. Entonces procedemos a usar nuestras estimaciones en un análisis de regresión que nos lleva a la conclusion, que lós costos de transacción tienen un efecto significativo sobre el márgen de arbitraje cubierto, a pesar de que ellas no dan cuenta totalmente de su tama?o en el caso bajo análisis.

     

Optimal currency area theory and monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions

In this article, the author analyses the prospects for monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions and stresses the regional specificities that should be taken into account. He points to the necessity to combine economic, political economy and institutional approaches to assess scenarios for monetary integration. The author also argues that the application of optimum currency area theory to regions with specific characteristics (in many respects different from the EU) might produce positive feed‐back effects for the development of OCA theory itself, highlighting specific aspects and implications of the same theory and stimulating theoretical research.     

Trade credit and company performance during the 2008 financial crisis

We investigate whether the 2008 financial crisis had an impact on companies’ trade credit, and whether changes in trade credit mitigated the crisis’s impact on firm profitability. We document that the availability of trade credit decreased, and that this decline is more pronounced, the higher the companies’ pre‐crisis reliance on short‐term debt. We further report evidence that the redistribution hypothesis holds during crisis periods. Finally, we show that the crisis had a negative impact on company performance, but that this impact was lower (greater) for firms that report an increase in trade receivables (payables) in crisis compared to pre‐crisis periods.     

Menger, Jevons, and Walras Un-homogenized, De-homogenized, and Homogenized: A Comment on Peart

Abstract . Response to Sandra J, Peart, “Jevons and Menger Re-homogenized?: Jaffé After 20 Years,” 1998. The American Journal of Economics and Sociology 57(July): 307-325.     

Background filtrations and canonical loss processes for top-down models of portfolio credit risk

In single-obligor default risk modeling, using a background filtration in conjunction with a suitable embedding hypothesis (generally known as ℍ-hypothesis or immersion property) has proven a very successful tool to separate the actual default event from the model for the default arrival intensity. In this paper we analyze the conditions under which this approach can be extended to the situation of a portfolio of several obligors, with a particular focus on the so-called top-down approach. We introduce the natural ℍ-hypothesis of this setup (the successive ℍ-hypothesis) and show that it is equivalent to a seemingly weaker one-step ℍ-hypothesis. Furthermore, we provide a canonical construction of a loss process in this setup and provide closed-form solutions for some generic pricing problems. Financial support by the National Centre of Competence in Research “Financial Valuation and Risk Management” (NCCR FINRISK) is gratefully acknowledged. NCCR FINRISK is a research program supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). The authors would like to thank Monique Jeanblanc and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Parts of this paper were presented at RiskDay 2006, Zurich. All remaining errors are our own. Comments and suggestions are very welcome.     

A Note on Risk Aversion,Prudence and Portfolio Insurance

This paper examines some properties of portfolio insurance that are linked to the risk aversion and the prudence of the investor. We provide explicit conditions to measure portfolio sensitivity to downside risk. We also characterize the degree of portfolio insurance by means of the ratio of absolute prudence to absolute risk aversion.