U.S. Monetary Policy since the 1950s and the Changing Content of FOMC Minutes

Content analysis is used to analyze 60 years of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Since there is no unique algorithm to quantify content, two different algorithms are applied. Wordscores compares content relative to a chosen benchmark, while DICTION is an alternative algorithm that is specifically designed to capture various elements that capture the sentiment or tone conveyed in a text. The resulting indicators are then incorporated into a VAR. The content of FOMC minutes is found to be significantly related to the state of the economy, notably real GDP growth, and changes in the fed funds rate. However, the relationship between content and macroeconomic conditions changes after 1993 when minutes are made public with a lag. Both content indicators also suggest substantive changes in the content of FOMC minutes since the 1950s in terms of the FOMC's dovishness or hawkishness.     

Racial Differences in the Returns to Financial Literacy Education

We examine financial literacy and the returns to financial literacy education, specifically focusing on the racial financial literacy gap. We confirm evidence that whites have higher financial literacy scores relative to minorities and that financial literacy increases with participation in financial literacy education. However, we find the benefit of participation in financial literacy education is higher for whites than that for minorities. Thus, the impact of being white alone persists, indicating a racial financial literacy and/or behavioral difference despite financial literacy education. Our findings have implications for policymakers interested in narrowing the racial wealth gap via financial literacy education.     

A Case of Mistaken Identity? Measuring Rates of Improved Seed Adoption in Tanzania Using DNA Fingerprinting

Studies of improved seed adoption in developing countries are almost always based on household surveys and are premised on the assumption that farmers can accurately self-report their use of improved seed varieties. However, recent studies suggest that farmers’ reports of seed varieties planted, or even whether the seed is local or improved, are sometimes inconsistent with the DNA fingerprinting results of those crops. We use household survey data from Tanzania to test the alignment between farmer-reported and DNA-identified maize seed types planted. In the sample, 70% of maize seed observations are correctly reported as local or improved, while 16% are type I errors (falsely reported as improved) and 14% are type II errors (falsely reported as local). Type I errors are more likely to have been sourced from other farmers, rather than formal channels. An analysis of input use, including seed, fertiliser, and labour allocations, reveals that farmers tend to treat improved maize differently, depending on whether they correctly perceive it as improved. This suggests that errors in farmers’ seed type awareness may translate into suboptimal management practices. The average yield of seed that is correctly identified as improved is almost 700 kg per hectare greater than that of type I errors. This indicates that investments in farmers’ access to information, seed labelling, and seed system oversight are needed to complement investments in seed variety development.     

Political and Interlocking Connections in the Boardroom on Private Equity Placements

This study examines the influence of directors who are politically connected and/or have boardroom interlocking on private equity placements (PEPs) in Chinese listed firms. We document that interlocked directors can significantly influence the propensity to apply for PEPs and approval of PEPs and reduce the cost of PEPs while providing greater access to proceeds from PEPs through lowering information asymmetry and information cost. Although politically connected directors have a significant role in the approval of PEPs, they are more likely to reduce the monitoring effects and increase agency problems, which lead to increased cost of PEPs and reduced proceeds from PEPs. The results also reveal that political connection diminishes the benefits of interlocking directors for firms having directors with both interlocking and political ties.     

Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors

We consider the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single‐equation framework with regressors that are endogenous, i.e. correlated with the errors. We show that even in the presence of endogenous regressors it is still preferable, in most cases, to simply estimate the break dates and test for structural change using the usual ordinary least squares (OLS) framework. Except for some knife‐edge cases, it delivers estimates of the break dates with higher precision and tests with higher power compared to those obtained using an instrumental variable (IV) method. Also, the OLS method avoids potential weak identification problems caused by weak instruments. To illustrate the relevance of our theoretical results, we consider the stability of the New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curve. IV‐based methods only provide weak evidence of instability. On the other hand, OLS‐based ones strongly indicate a change in 1991:Q1 and that after this date the model loses all explanatory power. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Office Channeling and Its Impact on the Growth of Indonesian Islamic Banking Industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyze that the office channeling policy that based on Bank Indonesia＇s rule No. 8/3/PBI/2006 had an impact on the growth of Islamic banking industry in Indonesia. This research used ordinary least square regression to analyze the impact of office channeling policy on the growth of Indonesian Islamic banking industry. The variable used in this paper is office channeling which is used as a dummy variable, and margin deposit and non-performing financing （NPF） are also used as control variables. The indicators of the growth of Indonesian Islamic banking industry are asset and third-party funds. The result shows that office channeling does not have an impact on the growth of Islamic banking industry which is measured by asset growth and third-party funds growth. According to this result, Bank Indonesia should have an innovative policy to stimulate the Islamic banking industry growth in Indonesia.     

The GCC’s Fixed Exchange Rate: A Major Anomaly for OCA Analysis

From the standpoint of traditional optimal currency area (OCA) analysis, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are a major anomaly. They successfully maintained pegged exchange rates among themselves for two decades while failing to meet a number of major OCA criteria. Contrary to the optimistic predictions of some of the most enthusiastic advocates of endogenous OCA analysis, intra‐regional trade has remained low and there is little synchronisation of their business cycles or harmonisation of their fiscal positions. We argue that their success in operating a fixed rate regime has been due to a combination of high oil revenue, the heavy use of foreign workers and the limited extent to which their economies rely on market forces. These are conditions that are not met by most other countries.     

Corruption and International Trade: An Empirical Investigation of African Countries

This paper attempts to estimate the effect of corruption on the flows of exports and imports of African countries. Using the gravity model approach and annual data for the period 1998–2007, we obtain negative and statistically significant correlations between the values of exports and imports and the levels of corruption in Africa and trading partners. Thus the results support the view that corruption adversely affects international trade. Our estimates suggest that if a country with Africa’s average corruption perception index of 2.8 were to improve its corruption level to Botswana’s 5.9, its exports would improve by about 15 per cent and imports by about 27 per cent.