Enter the dragon: Interactions between Chinese,US and Asia-Pacific equity markets, 1995–2010

This paper applies a variety of short-run and long-run time series techniques to data on a broad group of Asia-Pacific stock markets and the United States extending to 2010. Our empirical work confirms the importance of crises in affecting the persistence of equity returns in the Asia-Pacific region and offers some support for contagion effects. Post-Asian financial crisis quantile regressions yield substantial evidence of long-run linkages between the Shanghai market, the US market and many regional exchanges. Cointegration is particularly prevalent at the higher end of the distribution. Our results suggest that the enormous growth of the Shanghai market in the new millennium has been accompanied by a meaningful level of integration with other regional and world markets in spite of ongoing capital controls.     

The macroeconomic response to real and financial factors,commodity prices,and monetary policy: International evidence

This study estimates a variety of small dynamic factor macro models where the factors are time-varying. The sample consists of 20 economies from around the world. Using quarterly data since the late 1990s, I find that the focus of some policymakers on the negative spillovers from monetary shocks is exaggerated. Four separate types of shocks are identified, and these can easily offset each other with a neutral to positive overall economic impact in some economies investigated here. However, a few economies, namely Brazil, Chile and China, experience a net economic loss from spillovers.     

Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*

International Economics and Economic Policy - I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using...     

APPARENT BIAS: WHAT DOES ATTITUDE POLARIZATION SHOW?

Many, though not all, experiments have found that exposing groups of subjects who disagree to the same evidence may cause their initial attitudes to strengthen and move further apart, or polarize. Some have concluded that findings of attitude polarization show that people process information in a biased manner so as to support their initial views. We argue that, on the contrary, polarization is often what we should expect to find in an unbiased Bayesian population, in the context of experiments that find polarization.     

Turgot: a critic of physiocracy? An analysis of the debates in Éphémérides du Citoyen and in correspondence with Dupont

Abstract

Anne-Robert-Jacques Turgot (1727–1781) is one of the few French economic theorists who led a political career and held ministerial office. He continues to intrigue both historians and historians of economic thought where his relationship with the physiocrats is concerned. Does Turgot fully share their belief system, or does he only borrow a few elements from it? Is he a critical author of this school of thought? To date, no agreement has been reached on this subject. This paper attempts to answer some of these questions in an objective manner, drawing on the evidence provided by texts and therefore minimising the interpretations. The sources we will primarily refer to are the Éphémérides du citoyen and Turgot's correspondence with Dupont. We will revisit the economic themes of large- and small-scale farming, as well as savings, and discuss Turgot's views on slavery and the “sectarian spirit” of the physiocrats.     

Adolescents’ brand sensitivity in apparel: influence of three socialization agents

Wearing clothes with prestigious brand names seems to be very important for adolescents. This phenomenon was studied in the context of consumer socialization by examining the influence of three socialization agents, namely parents, peers and TV, on the development of French Canadian adolescents’ brand sensitivity and their relative importance. Controlling for socio‐economic variables, multiple regression analyses were conducted separately for boys and for girls. For both genders, brand sensitivity is related to peer influence. Girls’ brand sensitivity is related to the importance fathers give to clothing brands. TV exposure is not related to adolescents’ brand sensitivity. For boys and girls, peers represent the most important predictor of this consumer socialization. The results are discussed in the light of social and economic pressures and family relationships.     

Tax structure and entrepreneurship

Using macro-level panel data, we examine the effects of taxation and tax progressivity on entrepreneurship in a large group of European countries. We address two main questions. First, we try to explore whether tax increases discourage entrepreneurial activity, focusing on new self-employment (nascent entrepreneurship). Second, we investigate the impact of tax progressivity on entrepreneurship, again focusing on new self-employment. We find that tax progressivity at higher-than-average incomes has a robust negative effect on nascent entrepreneurship. We discuss the policy implications of our results.     

Relationship intention and relationship quality as predictors of clothing retail customers’ loyalty

Retailers endeavour to establish and maintain strong relationships with customers in order to build customer loyalty. Unfortunately, such endeavours are not always successful as not all retail customers reciprocate retailers’ relationship efforts. Customers’ intentions to engage in relationships with retailers (i.e. relationship intentions) should thus be the starting point in building customer loyalty. Moreover, customers’ perceptions of the strength of their relationship with a retailer (i.e. relationship quality) should also be considered when building customer loyalty. The purpose of this study is to determine whether clothing retail customers’ relationship intentions and relationship quality, individually and in combination, predict their loyalty to clothing retailers. Data were collected from 511 respondents in South Africa’s greater Tshwane metropolitan area. From a hierarchical multiple regression analysis, it was found that clothing retail customers’ relationship intentions and relationship quality are individually, and in combination, predictors of their loyalty to the retailer. Results furthermore indicate that relationship quality mediates the relationship between relationship intention and customer loyalty. The findings highlight the importance of first determining customers’ relationship intentions, and then reinforcing positive perceptions of relationship quality when building customer loyalty.     

Strategic commodity allocation

This article extends the study of the financialization of commodities (Rouwenhorst and Tang [Annu. Rev. Financ. Econ., 2012, 4, 447–467]) by considering an investment in the term structure of commodity futures prices. Specifically, we analyse the benefits of adding a distant commodity futures contract and/or a spot commodity (near month futures contract) to a portfolio of bonds and stocks in a setting similar to Brennan and Schwartz [The use of treasury bill futures in strategic asset allocation programs. In Worldwide Asset and Liability Modeling, edited by W.T. Ziemba and J.M. Mulvey, pp. 205–230, 1998 (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge)]. Our analysis employs an empirical study that covers the post financial crisis period. We show that the spot commodity considerably improves the value of the portfolio. However, an investment in the whole term structure of futures contracts is optimally achieved through high opposite positions in the spot commodity and distant futures contracts. We find that these extreme calendar spreads can result in an inappropriate investment.     

Congestion and Optimal Immigration Policy

This paper presents a model to explain the stylized fact that many countries have a low ratio of migrants in their population while some countries have a high ratio of migrants. Immigration improves the income of the domestic residents, but migrants also increase the congestion of public services. If migrants are unskilled and therefore pay low taxes, and the government does not limit access to these services, then the welfare of the domestic residents decreases with the number of migrants. Visa auctions can lower the cost of immigration control and substitute legal migrants for illegal migrants. If the government decides to limit the access of migrants to public services, immigration control becomes unnecessary and the optimal number of migrants can be very large.