Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation

We model 1927–1997 US business failure rates using an unobserved components time series model. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. We also detect significant longer term movements in default rates and default correlations. In a multi-year backtest experiment we show that accommodation of default rate dynamics has important consequences for credit risk capitalization requirements. Static or myopic variants of credit portfolio models miss significant periods of credit risk accumulation. Empirically congruent dynamic models by contrast provide more timely warning signals of credit risk build-up. In this way they may mitigate some of the pro-cyclicality concerns.     

Functional fixation in product pricing: A comparison of individuals and groups

This study tests the functional fixation hypothesis by comparing changes in the product pricing decisions of individuals and small groups in response to a fully disclosed, cosmetic change in depreciation method. The study provides several methodological refinements over earlier related studies. The research design incorporates full disclosure of the effect of accounting differences and a variety of measures are used to assess the impact of the accounting change, these revealing the inadequacy of the aggregate measures employed in earlier studies. Furthermore, the paper includes a comparison of the quality of group versus individual decision making with respect to functional fixation. The findings indicate that while individuals have a more pronounced shift in decision models than do groups, neither individuals nor groups fully adjust for the change.     

National differences in incentive compensation practices: The differing roles of financial performance measurement in the United States and the Netherlands

This paper describes the findings of a study aimed at providing an international replication of a US-based study by Gibbs et al. [Gibbs, M., Merchant, K., Van der Stede, W., & Vargus, M. (2004). Determinants and effects of subjectivity in incentives. The Accounting Review, 79(2), 409–436; Gibbs, M., Merchant, K., Van der Stede, W., & Vargus, M. (2006). The structure of incentive contracts: Evidence from auto dealerships. Working Paper, University of Chicago, University of Southern California, London School of Economics and University of Texas-Dallas] focused on the incentive compensation practices of firms in the automobile retailing industry. The purpose was to determine the extent to which these practices and their effects were similar across countries. Theory provides conflicting predictions as to whether international practices should reflect a situational “best fit” or “global best practices.” We collected a dataset comparable to that of Gibbs et al. from Dutch automobile retailers. The findings reveal dramatic differences in practices across the two countries. As compared to the US firms, the Dutch firms are much less likely to provide their managers with incentive compensation in any form. Where Dutch firms do offer incentive compensation, the payouts are smaller and their bonus awards are less likely to be based on profit measures of performance. But where the Dutch firms use incentive compensation, their performance/reward functions are more complex. Moreover, unlike in the US firms, in the Dutch firms the effects of the use of incentive compensation on net profit and pay satisfaction are negative.     

Stakeholder participation in environmental knowledge production

Participatory approaches in environmental knowledge production are commonly propagated for their potential to enhance legitimacy and quality of decision-making processes, especially under conditions of uncertainty. This paper describes the development of the Stakeholder Participation Guidance for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency as an attempt to put the rather theoretical ambitions of the participation literature into practice. The study includes an analysis of theories of ‘new production of knowledge’ and of the agency's position as an intermediary organization between science and policy, together with its participatory activities, to date. The Guidance is meant to suit different contexts, products and modes of assessments by the agency. Therefore, it cannot be a like a recipe book, but is intended to support and guide project leaders in their choices around stakeholder participation. The paper emphasizes the context dependency of participatory knowledge production and stresses the importance of reflection and transparency regarding the role of scientific advisors in the science-policy process.     

Cartel dating

The begin and end dates of cartels are often ambiguous, despite competition authorities stating them with precision. The legally established infringement period(s) from documentary evidence need not coincide with the period(s) of actual cartel effects. In this paper, we show that misdating cartel effects leads to a (weak) overestimation of but‐for prices and an underestimation of overcharges. Total overcharges based on comparing but‐for prices to actual prices are a (weak) underestimation of the true amount overcharged, irrespective of the type and size of the misdating. The bias in antitrust damage estimation based on predicted cartel prices can have either sign. We extend the before‐during‐and‐after method with an empirical cartel dating procedure, which infers structural breaks of unknown number and dates that mark the actual begin and end dates of the collusive effects. Empirical findings in the European Sodium Chlorate cartel corroborate our theoretical results.     

A note on Peters and Severinov, “Competition among sellers who offer auctions instead of prices”

We consider a market in which sellers compete for buyers by advertising reserve prices for second-price auctions. Applying the limit equilibrium concept developed in Peters and Severinov (1997) [1], we show that the competitive matching equilibrium is characterized by a reserve price of zero. This corrects a result in Peters and Severinov (1997) [1].     

Mean reversion in international stock markets: An empirical analysis of the 20th century

This paper analyzes mean reversion in the stock markets of 18 OECD countries during the years 1900–2009. In this period it takes stock prices about 18.5 years, on average, to absorb half of a shock. However, using a rolling-window approach we establish large fluctuations in the speed of mean reversion over time. The highest mean reversion speed is found for the period including the Great Depression and the start of World War II. Furthermore, the early years of the Cold War and the period containing the Oil Crisis of 1973, the Energy Crisis of 1979 and Black Monday in 1987 are also characterized by relatively fast mean reversion. We document half-lives ranging between 2.0 and 22.6 years. Our results suggest that the speed at which stocks revert to their fundamental value is higher in periods of high economic uncertainty, caused by major economic and political events.     

Explaining variation in child labor statistics

Child labor statistics are critical for assessing the extent and nature of child labor activities in developing countries. In practice, widespread variation exists in how child labor is measured. Questionnaire modules vary across countries and within countries over time along several dimensions, including respondent type and the structure of the questionnaire. Little is known about the effect of these differences on child labor statistics. This paper presents the results from a randomized survey experiment in Tanzania focusing on two survey design choices: different questionnaire design to classify children work and proxy response versus self-reporting. Use of a short module compared with a more detailed questionnaire has a statistically significant effect, especially on child labor force participation rates, and, to a lesser extent, on working hours. Proxy reports do not differ significantly from a child's self-report. Further analysis demonstrates that survey design choices affect the coefficient estimates of some determinants of child labor in a child labor supply equation. The results suggest that low-cost changes to questionnaire design will potentially clarify the concept of work for respondents.