Jumps in cross‐sectional rank and expected returns: a mixture model

We propose a new nonlinear time series model of expected returns based on the dynamics of the cross‐sectional rank of realized returns. We model the joint dynamics of a sharp jump in the cross‐sectional rank and the asset return by analyzing (1) the marginal probability distribution of a jump in the cross‐sectional rank within the context of a duration model, and (2) the probability distribution of the asset return conditional on a jump, for which we specify different dynamics depending upon whether or not a jump has taken place. As a result, the expected returns are generated by a mixture of normal distributions weighted by the probability of jumping. The model is estimated for the weekly returns of the constituents of the SP500 index from 1990 to 2000, and its performance is assessed in an out‐of‐sample exercise from 2001 to 2005. Based on the one‐step‐ahead forecast of the mixture model we propose a trading rule, which is evaluated according to several forecast evaluation criteria and compared to 18 alternative trading rules. We find that the proposed trading strategy is the dominant rule by providing superior risk‐adjusted mean trading returns and accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Securities laws in the host countries and the capital structure of US multinationals

We examine whether securities laws in the host countries influence the capital structure choice of United States (US) multinational corporations. We develop firm-level global indices to classify each corporation in terms of its exposure to the security laws that govern the rights of security holders in the countries where it has subsidiaries. The results show that the use of long-term debt is positively related to the firm's global standing in terms of common law legal origin, burden of proof, investor protection, disclosure requirements, and public enforcement. The securities laws in a country affect the capital structure of multinational corporations that has subsidiaries in that country.     

Can the small dairy farm remain competitive in US agriculture?

Smaller dairy farms in the US are observed to have higher costs than larger farms, and whether those higher costs are due to technology or inefficiency has implications for policy to address the small farm. If high cost of production on smaller farms is due to a higher cost frontier, then to make small farms competitive would require research to devise and design technology that is suitable for small farms. If instead high cost is due to inefficiency, then educational approaches are needed to ensure small dairy farms use technology efficiently. To determine the cause of higher costs on small farms, the cost of milk production by farm size was decomposed into frontier and efficiency components with a stochastic cost curve using data on USA dairy farms. Although the frontier cost of production decreases with farm size, that cost reduction is not as pronounced as a cost curve that includes inefficiency. The higher cost of production on many smaller farms is caused by inefficiency rather than technology.     

Impact of off-farm labor supply on food expenditures of the farm household

Farm households diversify their income sources by working off the farm. This is a risk management strategy that is used by farm households in both developed and developing countries. Income diversification via off-farm work is associated with higher incomes and food consumption. However, little is known about the association between off-farm work and farm household food expenditures. In an effort to bridge this gap, this study attempts to assess the impact of off-farm work decisions by the operator and/or the spouse on the food expenditures of the farm household. Using a nationwide farm household survey in the United States and new econometric method, we find that the decisions of the operator and/or the spouse to work off the farm are significantly interrelated (29%). However, these two decisions affect food expenditures in different ways. The operator’s off-farm work decision is positively related to food expenditures, while the spouse’s decision is negatively associated with expenditures on food by the farm household.     

Impact of off‐farm income on food expenditures in rural Bangladesh: an unconditional quantile regression approach

This study examines the effects of off‐farm income on food expenditures of rural Bangladeshi households. Our analysis yields unbiased estimates of the unconditional impact of off‐farm income on food expenditures and reveals the heterogeneous effects that occur across the distribution of total food consumption expenditures. The findings suggest that the impacts of off‐farm income are uniformly positive across the unconditional quantile regression and significantly increase food consumption expenditures for all quantiles, except for the 25th quantile. In addition, we found that schooling, experience, and location of the household increase the food expenditures of rural households. Most importantly, this article argues that female‐headed rural households in which the female works off the farm tend to have significantly lower food expenditures.     

Determinants of economic well-being among U.S. farm operator households

Participation in government programs has a mild impact on the economic well‐being of U.S. farm households. Major factors that determine farm household prosperity are the primary operator's education level and ethnicity, education level of the spouse, and other characteristics such as forward purchasing of inputs, use of contract shipping of products, having a succession plan, farm ownership, and location in a metro area. This article uses the 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) as well as relative and an absolute measure to assess U.S. farm households' economic well‐being. The relative measure compares the income and wealth position of farm households relative to median income and median wealth of the general population. The absolute measure adds annualized wealth to a farm household's income.     

The development and application of a process model for R&D project management in a high tech firm: A field study

In R&;D organizations of high tech firms, multiple R&;D projects are executed concurrently and timeliness of project completion - i.e., developing the right products at the right times - is a matter of serious concern. Given that the priority of R&;D projects and the interdependencies between the projects in a high tech firm change dynamically, high tech R&;D project management is a complex and challenging endeavor. To improve the understanding and management of high tech R&;D projects, this paper reports the findings of a field study where we, first, develop and empirically estimate a model that relates project priority over time with the generative mechanisms of market pull and technical challenge associated with R&;D projects. Next, we develop and demonstrate the application of a process model within which the time-varying project priority model is embedded. The process model makes it possible to allocate fixed resources among competing projects with time-varying interdependencies, thereby improving the timeliness of project completion. This research was conducted in collaboration with a major U.S. high tech firm. The corporate R&;D center of the firm served as the research setting for the field study. We present an application of the process model to delineate the evolution of the R&;D organization with the merger of its (technology driven) parent firm with another (market driven) high tech manufacturing firm. The application of the process model generates theoretical insights that are used to develop testable propositions. Implications of the study findings and directions for future research are discussed.     

Short-term financing in a cash-constrained supply chain

In this paper we consider a two-level supply chain with a single retailer and a manufacturer, where both the firms are facing financial constraints and can not produce/order their optimal quantity. Our work shows that a lender who finances the manufacturer has a motivation to finance the retailer as well. Motivated by this, we investigate lender's problem of financing both the firms by making a joint decision on the loan amount and comparing it with the case when lender makes independent decision on loan amount for both the firms. Our numerical study indicates that if one of the firms in the supply chain has sufficiently low cash, joint decision (we refer to it as supply chain financing) may be better not only for the lender but for the retailer and manufacturer as well.     

Off‐farm employment and reasons for entering farming as determinants of production enterprise selection in US agriculture

In today’s agriculture, farmers consider off‐farm employment and lifestyle goals in complex ways to select production enterprises. Data from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey were used to examine how off‐farm employment and ‘reasons for entering farming’ influence production enterprise selection in US agriculture. A two‐stage analysis with a multivariate tobit model was used to examine the impact of off‐farm employment as influenced by government farm programme payments, reasons for entering farming, demographics and location on production enterprise selection. Results underscore the impacts of reasons for entering farming and off‐farm employment on production enterprise choice and provide implications for policy development. The study highlights the importance of government farm programme payments in production enterprise selection by US farmers.