A note on the Robust Trend and ARARMA methodologies used in the M3 Competition

This brief note describes two of the forecasting methods used in the M3 Competition, Robust Trend and ARARMA. The origins of these methods are very different. Robust Trend was introduced to model the special features of some telecommunications time series. It was subsequently found to be competitive with Holt’s linear model for the more varied set of time series used in the M1 Competition. The ARARMA methodology was proposed by Parzen as a general time series modelling procedure, and can be thought of as an alternative to the ARIMA methodology of Box and Jenkins. This method was used in the M1 Competition and achieved the lowest mean absolute percentage error for longer forecasting horizons. These methods will be described in more detail and some comments on their use in the M3 Competition conclude this note.     

Health effects on labour market exits and entries

This paper analyses the role of health on exits out of and entries into employment using data from the first twelve waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–2002). We use discrete-time duration models to estimate the effect of health on the hazard of becoming non-employed and on the hazard of becoming employed. The results show that general health, measured by a variable that captures health limitations and by a constructed latent health index, affects entries into and exits out of employment; the effects being higher for men than for women. The results are robust to different definitions of employment, and to the exclusion of older workers from the analysis.     

本土化和全球化并存下的企业责任和公司治理(英文)

近几年,公司治理日渐成为新的研究热点,吸引了各界广泛的兴趣。从传统意义上说,公司治理研究的是不同国家背景下的企业内部决策权分配的问题。本文却旨在超越传统观念,试图将公司治理概念与日益凸显的全球化统一起来。 为更好地探讨新的公司治理形式,我们粗泛地把它定义为：多重参与者影响下的、聚焦于企业合法利用国内外资源的企业战略决策。此定义带有与“战略方向”意义相一致的内涵。两者均承认治理决策对企业战略方向有影响,后者决定了企业和股东能否获得好的投资回报。 在战略管理领域,“公司治理专注于解决公司内部决策权分配的问题”（Gollis 和 Montgomery,1997）是一个被广泛接受的观点。传统观点认为,企业决策权的制定应局限于对企业资源有明确主张的内部利益相关者,而今,越来越多的人认识到企业外部的利益相关者也应获得企业决策权的合法权（Hill 和 Jones,2007）。尽管拓宽后的公司治理概念（也就是说,超越企业边界的社会群体与从中选举产生的董事会影响企业资源配置的决策权）常被归入企业社会责任范畴;可一量考虑到企业社会责任涵盖经济,生态和社会等内容,公司治理概念的外延也随之变得广阔起来——它要解决的问题不仅包括如何为公司股东聚焦财富,同时也包括如何对自然与社会环境施加直接的影响。 让我们把基本假设阐述得更清晰些。首先,政府的三个层面,即联邦、州（或省）及地方,对公司治理的影响是有效且关联的;其次,国际关系的描述性效用（可识别为各国基于企业资源决策的竞争性互动）对公司治理的影响越发显著。考虑到影响战略方向与绩效的国际层面互动,我们假设,除了三个传统的政府层面外,还存有重要性不弱于前者的第四层面（称其为超国家层面或许更恰当）。在此层面上,有众多影响企业治理的参与另两种组织（跨国公司、非政府组织）进行了详细讨论。 很明显,跨国公司、非政府组织是影响公司治理的新要素,它的出现已得到文献详细论述（Dah 和Jeegen,2003）。随着非政府组织影响的延展,要掌握当代公司治理的演化,我们需对“全球”和“本土”等几组概念进行扩展。举例而文言主,从“本土”视角看,拉丁美洲仅意味着地球的某一特定方位,如果拉丁美洲真的与世隔绝,用“本土”描述这一时空统一体当然是正确的。然而,由于快速沟通的实现,尤其是互联网的出现,只要点击鼠标,“本土”即刻成为了“全球”。因此,“本土”和“全球”合而为一是全球化的结果。 非政府组织领导者非常清楚全球性的根本改变,他们利用这种改变来增强自己的优势,并依据即定目标最大地发挥该组织的影响力。利用互联网的信息传播或是CNN的新闻报道,基于很低的成本,“绿色和平”组织可在几秒内把一件地区性小事（村落传闻）变成全球性大事（国际流言）。有鉴于此,“本上”不仅仅是方位,它还是发生在这个方位上的所有事件,而这些事件能迅速转化为国际性焦点。无疑,本土和全球已融为一体,我们也必须将他们视为一体。 为进一步阐明公司治理近几年已发生根本变化的观点,本文运用三个安全例来支持这种改变是如何在利益相关者试图影响公司战略方向的情况下发生的。案例一讲述执行墨西哥组装工厂计划的跨国公司回应关于外界呼吁其自主披露战略导向的故事。案例二描写的是沃尔玛在美国某社区建立分店的意图遭非政府组织与当地市民反对而最终落败的历程。案例三介绍多元化的利益相关者（政府、非政府组织、跨国公司、联合国等）如何通过国际制裁、国内立法和行业自治等手段以保护钻石产业免受战略性威胁。     

Noise Trading and the Management of Operational Risk; Firms,Traders and Irrationality in Financial Markets*

abstract Efficient market models cannot explain the high level of trading in financial markets in terms of asset portfolio adjustment. It is presumed that much of this excessive trading is irrational ‘noise’ trading. A corollary is that there must either be irrational traders in the market or rational traders with irrational aberrations. The paper reviews the various attempts to explain noise trading in the finance literature, concluding that the persistence of irrationality is not well explained. Data from a study of 118 traders in four large investment banks are presented to advance reasons why traders might seek to trade more frequently than financial models predict. The argument is advanced that trades do not simply occur in order to generate profit, but it does not follow that such trading is irrational. Trading may generate information, accelerate learning, create commitments and enhance social capital, all of which sustain traders' long term survival in the market. The paper treats noise trading as a form of operational risk facing firms operating in financial markets and discusses approaches to the management of such risk.     

Perceived trust in contractual channel dyads: an exploratory investigation of Finnish food retailers

Distributor firms have found long-term contracting an effective means of gaining competitive advantage. To realize these benefits, the alliance should involve trusting others. However, contracts can also be one-sided rather than reciprocal, favouring the larger business partner. Should trust develop naturally where there are formal contracts defining the terms of the relationship? And what inducements should a supplier take to gain retailers' trust? The trade-off is further complicated when the retailers operate in a small market with few suppliers and high barriers to entry. This study focuses on these questions. We use original field data from Finnish food retailers who have signed a written agreement with their focal wholesaler. We find that maintaining autonomy increases trust in the relationship. We also find that regular communication in the dyad and balance between perceived rewards and contributions are associated with higher levels of trust. In turn, intrachannel competition strongly reduces retailers' trust in the dyad.     

Advertising and the Department of Energy's Campaign for Energy Conservation

Abstract

Motivating consumers to conserve energy has proven to be a difficult task in the United States. One tactic that has been used on a limited basis by the Department of Energy is paid advertising. This paper examines the role of conservation within the country's broader energy problems, delineates several consumer issues that affect the success of government conservation programs, discusses the controversy surrounding the use of paid advertising to promote consumer conservation efforts, and describes those DOE programs that have used paid advertising as an integral component of conservation program strategy.     

美国是“负责任”的实力下降霸权吗?——兼论中国必须掌握国际关系理论研究的话语权

随着美国的可持续发展能力和经济总量的相对下降,巨大的军费开支、难以缩小的财政赤字、自我变革能力的弱化阻碍着其重新振兴,其政府的国内治理能力下降。相应地,美国的软实力不断下降和所主张的发展模式对其他国家的吸引力也在减弱。从中长期来看,美国实力的相对下降已是一个客观趋势。作为世界唯一霸权,处在实力下行过程中的美国是否是一个负责任的国家,这是一个关系到全局的问题。更重要的是,在西方国际关系理论的主导下,理论框架和议题设置完全由西方决定,这类问题往往被遮蔽掉了。处在国力上升中的中国,在国际关系理论中如不能设置自己的议题,而只顺着西方设置的议题研究,将无法有效维护自己的国家利益,也难以争取国际秩序变革中的主动权。     

亚洲工厂及关联度分析

依据亚洲零部件贸易数据,作者采用了依存比率的方法对亚洲工厂的规模、工厂内部以及同美国之间的相互依存关系进行了研究。研究结果发现,亚洲工厂的规模超过北美洲和欧洲工厂,成为了世界上最大的工厂。亚洲零部件内部贸易额及比重超过了欧盟,这说明亚洲生产的一体化程度更高。从零部件进出口规模角度看,亚洲地区的经济体均高度依赖亚洲工厂的活动,而亚洲工厂对中国的依存度则最高,对日本的依赖程度只排在第三位,这说明中国是亚洲工厂的核心平台。美国在亚洲贸易中的重要性主要体现为中国的最终产品出口对美国市场存在严重依赖,而亚洲主要经济体对中国市场的出口已经超过对美国的出口,亚洲工厂对于美国的依赖程度并不高,远远低于亚洲工厂对中国内地和中国香港的依赖。相反,美国对亚洲工厂的依赖程度则远高于亚洲工厂对美国的依赖。     

亚洲国家视野下的中国历史基体——兼论从日本、韩国和越南发展研究视角的可能性

针对中国研究文献中认为中国具有某种本体或历史基体的惯常假设,同时包括中文和英文文献,但尤其重视日本文献,作者对中国历史基体的论述进行了分析,并将沟口雄三具体提出的中国历史基体的主张作为反省的对象,旨在分析他提出历史基体论的动机,即要摆脱因为日本自身历史脉络对日本学者认识中国所造成的限制。作者以韩国学者研究朝贡关系为案例,对历史基体论这一学术议题提出了质疑,并佐以越南的两位中国学专家的观点进行了比较,认为对基体论进行检视有助于中国研究取得知识启示。     

Localizing Land Governance,Strengthening the State: Decentralization and Land Tenure Security in Uganda

Decentralization of land governance is expected to significantly improve land tenure security of small‐scale farmers in Africa, through ensuring better protection of their assets and reducing land‐related conflicts. This paper, however, cautions not to have too high expectations of transferring responsibilities for land administration and dispute resolution to local government bodies. Field research in Mbarara District in south‐western Uganda brings out how decentralization has limited impacts in terms of localizing land services provision. Nonetheless, local land governance has transformed in important ways, as decentralization adds to institutional multiplicity, and fuels competition among state and non‐state authorities, and about the rules they apply. Rather than strengthening local mechanisms for securing tenure, the reforms introduce new forms of tenure insecurity, fail to transform local conventions of dealing with land disputes and delegitimize local mechanisms for securing tenure. In practice, decentralization has had limited effects in securing tenure for the rural poor, yet reinforces the presence of the state at the local level in diverse ways.