Dividend persistence and dividend behaviour

This article demonstrates how a spurious regression problem caused by dividend persistence is compounded by a spurious correlation problem when the dependent and independent variables in dividend behaviour regressions are ratios composed of common component variables. This article utilises a simulation procedure to take account of these problems, with the findings implying that extreme care should be taken when using ratios as predictor or explanatory variables in time series regression. This article introduces a reformulated Lintner first difference dividend behaviour model that is not subject to spurious regression in which past prices predict subsequent changes in dividends.     

Investing in residential property in Singapore: Misperceptions and financial leverage principles

This paper addresses the buoyant residential property market in Singapore. We trace the economic reasons underlying the recent boom in residential properties, and discuss some of the common misperceptions we have observed among property investors. We provide a set of principles for investing in properties, and the implications arising from these principles for the choice of mortgage financing and the type of properties to invest in.The authors are with Global Capital Markets, J. P. Morgan and the Department of Finance & Banking, National University of Singapore. All correspondence should be addressed to Edward H. K. Ng, Department of Finance & Banking, National University of Singapore, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 0511, e-mail address fbanghk@nus.sg.     

Should a ‘Natural Monopolist‘ Be Subject to Competition?: With Special Reference to Cellular Mobile Telephone Services in Australia

The argument against competition based on natural monopoly is questioned. A true natural monopolist needs no protection. Rapid product innovation and technical advance render the telecommunications industry not a natural monopolist.
Telephones may involve two sources of external benefits: benefits to callers and benefits to receivers. Neither source justifies treating country areas more favourably since the access externality also applies, probably with larger magnitudes, to metropolitan areas.
The Cellular Mobile Telephone Service (CMTS) involves the use of parts of the radio frequency spectrum. The spectrum should be treated as a scarce resource. Competitive bidding is probably the most efficient method of allocation if the whole spectrum is to be reallocated. However, with only a small band allocated to CMTS, auctioning need not be the most efficient outcome though it is better than maintaining its monopolised usage.
Even if competition results in a higher cost initially, the gain in dynamic efficiency can offset this initial loss. A minimum estimate of the benefits to the public of introducing competition in CMTS gives a present value of $2.4 billion.     

The underperformance of the growth enterprise market in Hong Kong

This paper examines the stock return performance of the IPO stocks which are listed on the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) in Hong Kong. By using several benchmarks, over 3 years, this paper finds that the results produced are sensitive to the benchmark employed. The two factors causing the underperformance of GEM stocks are the ‘technology boom’ and ‘IPO effects’. This suggests that appropriate benchmarks are very important for assessing the performance of newly issued stocks. The results of the cross-sectional analyses suggest that the Hong Kong GEM is a unique market. Since at least 70 percent of the IPO stocks listed on the GEM are technology stocks, the ‘technology’ factor outweighs the various hypotheses advocated by previous researchers to explain the poor performance of newly listed stocks.     

Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China’s accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China’s policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth.     

Clinical,humanistic, and economic outcomes between drug-eluting stent (DES) and bare metal stent (BMS): 18-month follow-up study

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is one of the most performed interventions for ischemic heart diseases. In Hong Kong, the total number of patient discharges and deaths for ischemic heart diseases in 2009 was 33,363, including 4,360 deaths. There are over 5,000 cases of PCI yearly. This study aimed to compare clinical, economic, and humanistic outcomes among patients receiving drug-eluting stent (DES) or bare metal stent (BMS) in Hong Kong.

Methods: Patients who received stent implantation between September 15, 2009 and October 11, 2010 in Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong, were recruited and followed for 18 months. Occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (cardiac death, non-fatal MI, TLR and TVR) was employed as the clinical outcome measurements. Improvement in quality-of-life by stent interventions was measured as quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). EQ-5D questionnaire was adopted to assess the QALY gained. Cost-utility analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis for BMS and DES were employed as the economic outcome measurement.

Results: Six hundred and eighty-four patients (DES?=?402; BMS?=?282) were included. From 0–18 months, TLR rate (2.7% vs 3.5%, p?=?.549) and TVR rate (3.7% vs 6.4%, p?=?.111) were lower in the DES group, but without statistical significance. EQ VAS (71.06?±?14.56 vs 71.07?±?16.57, p?=?.998) and utility score (0.81?±?0.17 vs 0.78?±?0.16, p?=?.162) were comparable between DES and BMS group. Overall, the cost per QALY gained was HKD + 1,178,100 and ICER was HKD + 187,000 (1USD?=?7.8 HKD).

Conclusions: No significant difference in TVR, TLR rates, EQ VAS, and utility score was found between the DES and BMS group. The higher cost of index procedure for the DES group was found to be partly offset by reduced cost of follow-up, offering cost-effectiveness in ACS patients, predominantly in STEMI patients. DES was recommended for STEMI patients.     

Managers’ conflict management styles and employee attitudinal outcomes: The mediating role of trust

This study examines the mediating effects of trust on the relationships between manager’s conflict management styles (CMS) and employee attitudinal outcomes, as well as identifies the potential deviations in the areas of CMS and trust from the west in Chinese culture. One hundred sixty-nine employees in Guangzhou of China participated. As predicted, Integrating CMS of managers is found significantly correlated to trust and subordinates’ job satisfaction and turnover intention. Trust fully mediates the link between Integrating CMS and subordinates attitudinal outcomes. Results also support the expectations concerning the deviations on the impacts of the uncooperative CMS on subordinates under Chinese culture. Discussion and implications are presented.