世贸组织谈判对高端产业的影响

很高兴能参加这次会议并有机会与诸位交流。在当前世贸组织自由化谈判进程继续推进的背景下，结合今天会议的主题，我的演讲将主要围绕世贸组织谈判和世贸组织协议对高科技产品和服务所产生的影响展开。     

EMPIRICAL IMPACT OF PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON THE JAPANESE ECONOMY*

We study the impact of public capital investment on individual sectors of the Japanese economy using time‐series data for the period of 1970–1998. We employ a production function approach and also estimate a dynamic VAR/ECM model. We find significant differences in the employment effects, output effects and private investment effects across sectors. Public capital investment has a positive effect on employment in the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE), manufacturing, construction and utilities sectors; on private investment in the FIRE, agriculture, transportation, trade and services sectors; and on output in the mining, FIRE, trade and manufacturing sectors.     

Use of Food Pantries and Food Stamps in Low‐Income Households in the United States

Using the Current Population Survey data for 1999, a bivariate probit model was estimated to determine food stamp and food pantries participation for low‐income households. Household income, the level of food insecurity, household structure, and metro versus nonmetro residence affected participation decisions in both programs. Shorter application forms for food stamp benefits encouraged food stamp participation. Food Stamp Program participation and food pantry use were found to be positively correlated.     

SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN DETERMINANTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN MEXICO

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination, which includes the relative GDP per capita, the real interest rates, and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model.     

ELECTRIC POWER DEREGULATION: BACKGROUND AND PROSPECTS

The incentive failures of rate-of-return regulation are well known and thus raise the question of whether to deregulate electric power. The development of long-distance transmission and of alternative power sources in networks has spawned several institutions that would or could allow markets to substitute for such regulation. These include long-term contract sales, spot power exchange, contract power pooling, shared facility ownership, and economic dispatch. Because of the current surplus of power, the existence of such institutions has caused increasing competition in the electric power market and has catalyzed the movement to deregulate generators from state authority and to restructure utility assets. By encouraging this movement, regulators can further the discipline that markets already exert on prices and costs. By making counterproposals to the utilities, regulators can influence asset restructuring so that some of the capital gains inherent in such restructuring can be shared with consumers in the form of rate relief. Finally, for the future, the cotenancy agreement—which is antitrust supervised and competitively ruled—has promising possibilities for deregulating transmission and distribution.     

GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR PROFIT SHARING, GAINSHARING, ESOPs, AND TQM

Empirical evidence suggests that profit sharing, gainsharing, employee ownership, worker participation, and Total Quality Management (TQM) may increase productivity and firm performance. Nevertheless, one needs to ground the case for government intervention in support of each of these programs on arguments concerning externalities or merit goods. This paper argues that no one yet has offered a convincing case of this nature. It also discusses the U.S. government's support for ESOPs and suggests reasons for its disappointing results in the hope that future policy experiments will not repeat these mistakes.     

Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology

Over the years, many asset pricing studies have employed the sample cross‐sectional regression (CSR) R² as a measure of model performance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this statistic and develop associated model comparison tests, taking into account the impact of model misspecification on the variability of the CSR estimates. We encounter several examples of large R² differences that are not statistically significant. A version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM) exhibits the best overall performance, followed by the Fama–French three‐factor model. Interestingly, the performance of prominent consumption CAPMs is sensitive to variations in experimental design.     

Racial Preferences in Dating

We examine racial preferences in dating. We employ a Speed Dating experiment that allows us to directly observe individual decisions and thus infer whose preferences lead to racial segregation in romantic relationships. Females exhibit stronger racial preferences than males. The richness of our data further allows us to identify many determinants of same-race preferences. Subjects' backgrounds, including the racial composition of the ZIP code where a subject grew up and the prevailing racial attitudes in a subject's state or country of origin, strongly influence same-race preferences. Older subjects and more physically attractive subjects exhibit weaker same-race preferences.