A Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Returns

In this paper, we consider two hypotheses for the recent performance of real estate returns. The first is the random event argument that real estate is positively correlated with unanticipated inflation but that structural change in expected returns due to a change in the perceived sensitivity of returns to unanticipated inflation has not taken place. The second is the hedge demand argument that formulates the structural shift hypothesis. The paucity of real estate and other expectations data as well as the general identification problem make it extremely difficult to distinguish between these hypothesis. Our tests consist of estimates of inflation betas for various asset categories overtime as well as estimates of the hedge vector, $S^{-1}C$. Although some support for the hedge argument is found, the results are not strong enough to reject the random event argument and conclude that a decline in the required return on real estate due to a relative increase in inflation beta drove returns during the 1970's.     

On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs

This paper studies the nature of capital adjustment at the plant level. We use an indirect inference procedure to estimate the structural parameters of a rich specification of capital adjustment costs. In effect, the parameters are optimally chosen to reproduce a set of moments that capture the non-linear relationship between investment and profitability found in plant-level data. Our findings indicate that a model, which mixes both convex and non-convex adjustment costs, fits the data best.     

IS THE BALANCING ITEM FOR AUSTRALIA SUSTAINABLE? EVIDENCE FROM A THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL WITH AN AUTOREGRESSIVE UNIT ROOT

This article applies an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root to examine the sustainability of the balancing item of the balance of payments for Australia from the first quarter 1960 to the second quarter 2006. The main finding is that the balancing item of the balance of payments in Australia is characterised by a non-linear, but stationary, series meaning that the balancing item is sustainable. This result implies that short-run volatility in the balancing item has no effect on the reliability of reporting of the balancing item in the long-run.     

Employment Implications of Improved Labour Productivity in the Australian Iron and Steel Industry*

The long-run employment and our put effects of increased productivity in Australian iron und steel industry are investigated. This work suggests that employment in the iron and steel industry will expand und there will be shifts in the occupational composition of employment. These results ure preserved in u sensitivity analysis in which different trade scenarios are assumed und variations in indutry input-output shares und other key parameters are made.     

Temporal causality and the dynamics of democracy,emigration and real income in Fiji

This study is the first to explore temporal causality between democracy, emigration and real income in Fiji within a multivariate cointegration model. We find three long run relationships between democracy, emigration and real income. In the long run there is evidence that migration and democracy Granger cause real GDP in Fiji; real GDP and democracy Granger cause migration from Fiji and that real GDP and migration Granger cause democracy in Fiji. In the short run we find unidirectional Granger causality running from migration to real GDP and from democracy to real GDP, but neutrality between democracy and migration in the short run. We also extend the analysis to examine the degree of exogeneity of the variables beyond the sample period through considering the decomposition of variance and impulse response functions.     

WHAT DETERMINES MIGRATION FLOWS FROM LOW‐INCOME TO HIGH‐INCOME COUNTRIES? AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF FIJI–U.S. MIGRATION 1972–2001

This article examines the long-run and short-run determinants of migration from Fiji to the United States between 1972 and 2001 using a human capital framework, which is extended to take account of political instability in Fiji. In the long-run the authors find that differences in income levels, disparities in police strength, disparities in the number of doctors, costs of moving, and political instability in Fiji are all statistically significant with the expected sign. In the short run the cost of moving, lagged migration, political instability, and differences in both police strength and medical care are the main determinants of Fiji–United States immigration. ( JEL C22, F22)