Model simplification and variable selection: A replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)

In this paper, we revisit the well-known UK inflation model by Hendry (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, 255–275. We replicate the results in a narrow sense using the gretl and PcGive programs. In a wide sense, we extend the study of model uncertainty using the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach as an automatic model reduction strategy. We consider three different specifications to compare BACE variable selection with Hendry's reduction. We find that the BACE method can recover the path of nontrivial reduction strategy.     

Determinants of investment and innovation expenditure in Polish manufacturing industries

This article analyses determinants of sectoral R&D and innovation expenditure as well as investment in Polish manufacturing industries in 1994–2004. The estimated coefficients for user cost of capital are generally in line with the neoclassical model of investment, except for R&D intensity. The latter are primarily discouraged by systemic uncertainty. The rate of growth of sales is not a prominent determinant of investment and innovation expenditure. Market concentration coupled with uncertainty has a damaging effect on physical capital investment but it promotes R&D expenditure and leaves innovation intensity unaltered.     

Optimality and efficiency of incomplete split-block designs

In this paper, a balanced incomplete split-block design (BISBD) is shown to be universally optimum for the estimation of the interaction effects with respect to each of the intra-plot stratum estimation and the GLSE. Furthermore, the efficiency factor of an optimal design is investigated.     

Can We Prevent Boom-Bust Cycles During Euro Area Accession?

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and borrowing from abroad. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. We find that exchange rate revaluation is the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare.     

Simulated Negotiation Outcomes Through Recommendation Crowding

The goal of the paper is to propose a method for finding outcomes of negotiations of multiple parties with a multi-criteria decision outcomes evaluation. Firstly, the procedure for reduction of continuous set of options to large but finite crowd of compromise recommendations is presented. Next, the crowd is integrated to a single benchmark which is treated as a proposal of artificial auxiliary player called a lone wolf as presented by Kersten and Szapiro (Proceedings of the international conference of the society of systems and science. Budapest, 1987). The strategy of negotiation with this artificial player is proposed to generate a benchmark evaluations scheme for real negotiation. Finally, a multi-agent simulation approach for multi-lateral negotiation process modeling is presented in order to estimate possible negotiation outcomes.     

Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius

The economic literature focuses mostly on faster ageing of population among developed countries; however, many developing countries experience even more dramatic pace of this process. Mauritius, with the median age of population higher than the world average since 1990s, represents a prominent example of such a case. In this paper, we analyse demographic developments in Mauritius and discuss their macroeconomic implications using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks. We project that a decline in the Mauritian interest rate and net foreign assets to GDP resulting from ageing will be accompanied by a temporary increase in GDP, consumption and investment.     

Contracting and Farmers’ Perception of Unfair Trading Practices in the EU Dairy Sector

It is commonly asserted that unfair trading practices (UTPs) emerge largely as a result of contract incompleteness. In line with this view it is claimed that making contracts more complete will represent an antidote to UTPs. In this paper we argue that this does not need to be the case. This is because contracts, except for their potential to increase the surplus generated in the transaction, determine how this surplus will be divided. This, in turn, makes it possible for both trading partners to use contractual terms to turn the distributional conflict to their advantage. In the presence of unequal distribution of bargaining power this may lead to a situation in which the stronger party may succeed in tilting the contract in its favour by including UTPs in the contract content. Drawing insights from data collected in 2017 through a field survey among dairy farmers in France, Germany, Poland and Spain, we find support for this argument. Our estimation results show that contract completeness increases the likelihood of farmers reporting that their contracts with processors include the practices that may be considered as UTPs. Further, and also in line with this argument, contract completeness does not seem to affect UTPs during the contract execution or its termination.     

Does Market Structure Influence Price Transmission in the Agro‐food Sector? A Meta‐analysis Perspective

There exists a large literature on price transmission in agro‐food sectors. However, a great majority of empirical studies focus on the existence of asymmetry and, by and large, do not investigate the reason for its presence or absence. This is in sharp contrast to the theoretical literature that provides a number of explanations of why we should expect (a)symmetry. In response, this paper investigates the reasons for asymmetric price transmission in the agro‐food chain, using meta‐analysis of existing studies. Our focus is on the organizational and institutional characteristics of the agro‐food supply chain. Our findings suggest that asymmetric price transmission in farm–retail relationships is more likely to occur in sectors/countries with more fragmented farm structure, higher governmental support and more restrictive regulations on price controls in the retail sector. On the other hand, more restrictive regulations on entry barriers in the retail sector and the relative importance of the sector tend to promote symmetric farm–retail price transmission. The latter is also more likely in the presence of a strong processing industry.