二元价值容介态股票投资价值评价

本文利用综合评价法,基于二元价值容介态理论,利用物质态和信息态双层筛选法,对A股上市公司进行综合评级,以挖掘有投资价值的上市公司。     

Long memory in volatilities of German stock returns

We show that there is strong evidence of long-range dependence in the volatilities of several German stock returns. This will be done by applying a method using the difference of the classical log-periodogram regression estimator for the memory parameter and of the tapered periodogram based estimator. Both estimators give similar values for the memory parameter for each series and this indicates long memory. To support our findings we apply also a methodology using the sample variance and a wavelet based estimator to the data. Also these two methods show clear evidence of long-range dependence in the volatilities of German stock returns.First version received: December 2001/Final version received: March 2003The computational assistance of Eleni Mitropoulou and Björn Stollenwerck as well as the helpful comments of two unknown referees are gratefully acknowledged. Research supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under SFB 475. Stock returns were obtained from Deutsche Finanzdatenbank (DFDB), Karlsruhe.     

Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution — an evolutionary approach

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.     

The effect of nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements on benefactors’ exports

Over the last decades, developed countries have provided developing countries with preferential market access via trade policies in the form of nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements (NRPTAs). Despite the lack of reciprocity of this kind of agreements, certain criteria for designating eligible countries refer to the commercial interests of benefactor countries. This paper examines for the first time the effect of NRPTAs on benefactors’ exports to beneficiary countries. Using recent developments in the econometric analysis of the gravity equation, we find robust evidence that nonreciprocal agreements have had an economically significant effect on exports not only for beneficiary countries but also for benefactor countries.     

Taxation, Reranking and Equivalence Scales

It is conjectured that if the government has a distributional objective and formulates tax policy with a view to equitable treatment of households, then adopting the scale that is implicit in transfer policy should identify only reranking that has no equity foundation. This motivates the question: can the reranking‐minimizing scales be identified as those implicit in the transfer system? The analysis presented in this study suggests that the equivalence scale which minimizes reranking, while not necessarily equal to the tax implicit equivalence scale, is nevertheless in its vicinity.     

Real-time forecasts of economic activity for Latin American economies

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates nowcasts and forecasts of real GDP growth using five models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.     

Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand

Abstract .  We extend the Thomas (1985) dynamic optimizing model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has restricted or no access to foreign currency denominated bonds. In this case currency substitution decisions and asset substitution decisions are not separable. The results obtained suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency substitution. Applying this approach to six Latin-American countries, we find evidence of currency substitution in Colombia, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, but not in Brazil and Chile.     

The development of the Personality Audit: a psychodynamic multiple feedback assessment instrument

The Personality Audit (PA) was developed to meet a need for a relatively simple multiple feedback instrument that could clarify the various motivational needs of executives. Using a psychodynamic approach to leadership, the PA allows the test-taker to assess him- or herself in seven personality dimensions important in human behaviour and to identify personal ‘blind spots’. The resulting insights can be used to formulate appropriate leadership development goals.

The objective of this paper is to describe the design and psychometric properties of the PA. This instrument, in contrast with other tools that can be used to clarify the inner theatre of individuals, is designed not only to report information given by the test-taker but also to reflect the perceptions of observers representing both the test-taker's public and private spheres. This paper describes in detail the conceptual foundations of the questionnaire, the psychometric methods used to confirm its validity and reliability, and possible directions for future research.