Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries

This paper analyses the effects of monetary agreements on trade flows using a sample of 25 OECD countries over the period 1950-2004. We find that these agreements have boosted intra-bloc trade. This result especially applies to the case of the euro. More importantly, in contrast to regional trade agreements, all monetary agreements analysed show evidence of trade-creating effects with third countries. Finally, only the euro shows a symmetric impact for the trade-creating effect with non-members, that is, using the euro promotes both the Eurozone's exports and its imports to non-Eurozone markets to a similar extent.     

The role of information in different bargaining protocols

We analyze a bargaining protocol recently proposed in the literature vis-à-vis unconstrained negotiation. This new mechanism extracts “gains from trade” inherent in the differing valuation of two parties towards various issues where conflict exists. We assess the role of incomplete vs. complete information in the efficiency achieved by this new mechanism and by unconstrained negotiation. We find that unconstrained negotiation does best under a situation of complete information where the valuations of both bargaining parties are common knowledge. Instead, the newly proposed mechanism does best in a situation with incomplete information. The sources of inefficiencies in each of the two cases arise from the different strategic use of the available information.     

A score-test on measurement errors in rating transition times

We model credit rating histories as continuous-time discrete-state Markov processes. Infrequent monitoring of the debtors’ solvency will result in erroneous observations of the rating transition times, and consequently in biased parameter estimates. We develop a score test against such measurement errors in the transition data that is independent of the error distribution. We derive the asymptotic χ²${\chi }^2$-distribution for the test statistic under the null by stochastic limit theory. The test is applied to an international corporate portfolio, while accounting for economic and debtor-specific covariates. The test indicates that measurement errors in the transition times are a real problem in practice.     

Leisure-tourism and amenity migration: transformations observed in the semiarid mountain region of Northern Chile

ABSTRACT

In the last years, the mountain regions of Chile have started to be perceived as a destination for leisure-tourism activities and the development of amenity migration processes. Through semi-structured interviews and meetings conducted among key actors, locals and migrants, this work examines how the local community perceives the main consequences that current leisure-tourism and/or amenity migration processes have started to create in four local communes in the semi-arid region from the North of Chile. While local inhabitants acknowledge the development opportunities these processes entail, they are also starting to perceive effects on the identity of their communities as well as disparities, both in terms of territory and local governance. Studying the consequences of these processes may promote mitigation or adaptation measures to reduce the number of new conflicts and strengthen solidarity, both socially and territorially.     

Marketing social missions—adopting social marketing for social entrepreneurship? A conceptual analysis and case study

• In aiming for voluntary behavioral change, social marketing may be particularly attractive for social entrepreneurs, but conversely, they may not have the resources or knowledge for conducting full-blown social marketing campaigns. In response to the growing importance and role of social entrepreneurship in tackling social problems and the lack of research concerning how social marketing may play a role in such organizations, the purpose of this paper is to develop a deeper conceptual understanding of how social marketing may be of use to social entrepreneurial organizations. The research reports on a case analysis of One Drop and its Aqua expo and the utilization of social marketing in pursuit of its goal to achieve water conservation in the Northern Hemisphere. The research shows the adoption of elements of social marketing but not a conscious adoption of social marketing as a strategy.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trade policies, concentration, growth and welfare

The aim of this paper is to analyse, through a theoretical model, the effects that the trade integration of two countries may have on industrial location, growth and welfare.The conclusions reached finally depend both on whether the import or the export costs are affected by the trade policies on which the integration process is based and on whether the rich or the poor country introduces them. In general, when integration leads to an increase of industrial concentration in the rich country, the growth rate increases and welfare improves in both countries. If integration means that industry moves to the poor country, the growth rate decreases; in spite of this, in this case the poor country can also improve its welfare.     

Fuzzy Negotiation Solutions of n-Person Cooperative Games by Knowledge Engineering in Bargaining

A model for negotiation is developed upon the basis of a previous model called Fuzzy Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering. The new model, called Compensatory Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering and FNSKE are based on the combination of knowledge of experts in negotiation, rather than on classical notions of rationality. The experts in negotiation present four propositions in a non-mathematical way and with a natural language, according to the theory of Knowledge Engineering. In the CNSKE model, knowledge is represented through logic predicates, and the calculations are made using the Compensatory Fuzzy Logic system. CFL is a system whose operators satisfy the axioms of Utility. The CFL operators, especially because of the compensation property, are more adequate than the norm and co-norm’s operators to model human decision-making, according to empirical results. The Good Deal Index in CNSKE is statistically estimated from the GDI in FNSKE. This is a quantitative index, which provides the solution concept. The fuzzy function f(C) represents the likelihood the players of a coalition C to reach an agreement into this coalition. Counterpart Convenience Indexes 1, 2 allow each player to select the best coalition for negotiation. The advantage of CNSKE over FNSKE is that the idempotency of conjunction and disjunction operators give every membership function -obtained from the predicates- the possibility to be interpreted by itself. Hence, the truth-values of the CNSKE membership functions can be semantically interpreted. In addition, CNSKE can be easily applied to solve real negotiation problems.     

Do neighboring municipalities matter in industrial location decisions? Empirical evidence from Spain

This paper focuses on industrial location, assuming that entrepreneurs not only consider the advantages associated with a certain municipality, but also those coming from nearby areas. Exploratory analysis reflects the existence of spatial patterns in the creation of manufacturing establishments and sheds light on the geographical scope on which agglomeration economies operate in industrial location. Spatial Probit models and standard Probit models with spatially lagged explanatory variables are estimated to test whether neighboring municipalities’ location decisions and characteristics, including agglomeration economies, matter in industrial location choices. Results show that neighboring municipalities location decisions and characteristics help to explain location decisions of new establishments for 11 manufacturing industries in Spanish municipalities (NUTS V) over the period 1991–1995.     

Populism and the return of the “Paranoid Style”: Some evidence and a simple model of demand for incompetence as insurance against elite betrayal

We present a simple model of populism as the rejection of “disloyal” leaders. We show that adding the assumption that people are worse off when they experience low income as a result of leader betrayal (than when it is the result of bad luck) to a simple voter choice model yields a preference for incompetent leaders even if all leaders have the same underlying probability of betrayal. These deliver worse material outcomes in general, but they reduce the feelings of betrayal during bad times. Some evidence consistent with our model is gathered from the Trump–Clinton 2016 election: on average, subjects primed with the importance of competence in policymaking decrease their support for Trump, the candidate who scores lower on competence in our survey (even amongst Trump supporters). But two groups respond to the treatment with a large (approximately 5 percentage points) increase in their support for Donald Trump: those living in rural areas and those that are low educated, white and living in urban and suburban areas.     

Risk management and value creation: new evidence for Brazilian non-financial companies

The practice of financial risk management with derivatives has received attention both from the academia and the market. In Brazil, there is a growing use of these instruments by companies, in line with the growth of such market in the global economy. This article aims to investigate the relationship between the financial risk management and the value creation to the shareholder for non-financial Brazilian companies. The sample was made up of 1794 firm-year observations from 2006 to 2014. Results obtained via panel data, including the GMM, point out that companies which used derivatives did not add value during the period analysed. An explanation for this result is that most of the companies use derivatives in order to manage the cash flow and not to add value.