Seasonal fluctuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate

Most of the evidence on dynamic equilibrium exchange rate models is based on seasonally adjusted consumption data. Equilibrium models have not worked well in explaining the actual exchange rate. However, the use of seasonally adjusted data might be responsible for the spurious rejection of the model. This article presents a new equilibrium model for the exchange rates that incorporates seasonal preferences. The fit of the model to the data is evaluated for five industrialized countries using seasonally unadjusted data. Our findings indicate that a model with seasonal preferences can generate monthly time series of the exchange rate without seasonality even when the variables that theoretically determine the exchange rate show clear seasonal behaviours. Further, the model can generate theoretical exchange rates with the same order of integration than actual exchange rates, and in some cases, with the same stochastic trend.     

Investment in online advertising and return on sales: Does it pay to outsource the services to an advertising agency?

Abstract

The effect of investing in online advertising on a firm’s financial outcomes can depend on whether or not the development and implementation of advertising campaigns are managed by advertising agencies. Agencies may have experienced professionals or workload to perform these jobs, but the costs are greater. This paper aims to investigate the effects of investments in digital marketing on the financial outcome of a company’s services, comparing whether or not it is outsourced to advertising agencies. The secondary data relates to services advertised and marketed by a firm. We tested the possible moderating effect of outsourcing the service in the relationship between investment in online advertising (Google and Facebook) and return on sales (profit margin), by controlling the effect of covariates. Through four regression analyses, the results showed that outsourcing the service moderates the relationship. Specifically, the higher the amount of advertising investment, the more it pays to outsource the service to an advertising agency in order to generate greater profit margin. But with a low investment value, it does not pay to outsource. This study helps to identify situations in which it pays to outsource digital marketing services to an advertising agency.     

FISCAL POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND FINITE HORIZONS

In this paper we analyse the stabilisation properties of distortionary taxes in a new‐Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely lived consumers. In this framework, government debt is part of net wealth and this adds a number of interesting channels through which fiscal policy could affect output and inflation. Output volatility, in the presence of technology shocks, is not substantially affected by the operation of automatic stabilisers, but we find interesting composition effects. While the presence of finitely lived households strengthens the stabilisation performance of distortionary taxes through the reduction of the volatility of consumption, it does so at the cost of more volatile investment and real money balances.     

Child hunger in the developing world: An analysis of environmental and social correlates

Using two complementary methods in a framework that allows incorporating both environmental and household-level factors, we explore the correlates of underweight status among children. We use individual children as the units of analysis in 19 African countries, and subnational survey strata in 43 African, Asian and Latin American countries. We consider the relationship between household-level demographic and health survey data, environmental factors from external geospatial data sets and two indicators of malnutrition among children aged 1–3, deviations from the international standards of weight-for-age and height-for-age. We discuss methods for data integration. In general, household determinants explain more variation than environmental factors, perhaps partly due to more error-prone measurement at the community level. Among individual children, some measures of agricultural capacity are related to lower incidence of child hunger, while among regions, measures relating to urbanness and population density show a stronger relationship. We give recommendations for further study, data collection and policy making.     

Corporate social responsibility and employee commitment

Effective corporate social responsibility policies are a requirement for today's companies. Policies have not only to be formulated, they also have to be delivered by corporate employees. This paper uses existing research findings to identify two types of factors that may impact on employee motivation and commitment to CSR 'buy-in'. The first of these is contextual: employee attitudes and behaviours will be affected by organizational culture and climate, by whether CSR policies are couched in terms of compliance or in terms of values, and by whether such policies are integrated into business processes or simply an 'add-on' that serves as window-dressing. The second set of factors is perceptual. Motivation and commitment will be affected by the extent to which they can align personal identity and image with that of the organization, by their perceptions of justice and fairness both in general and in terms of how CSR performance is rewarded, and by their impressions concerning the attitude of top management to CSR issues and performance.     

Nonparametric inference on multivariate versions of Blomqvist’s beta and related measures of tail dependence

We consider nonparametric estimation of multivariate versions of Blomqvist’s beta, also known as the medial correlation coefficient. For a two-dimensional population, the sample version of Blomqvist’s beta describes the proportion of data which fall into the first or third quadrant of a two-way contingency table with cutting points being the sample medians. Asymptotic normality and strong consistency of the estimators are established by means of the empirical copula process, imposing weak conditions on the copula. Though the asymptotic variance takes a complicated form, we are able to derive explicit formulas for large families of copulas. For the copulas of elliptically contoured distributions we obtain a variance stabilizing transformation which is similar to Fisher’s z-transformation. This allows for an explicit construction of asymptotic confidence bands used for hypothesis testing and eases the analysis of asymptotic efficiency. The computational complexity of estimating Blomqvist’s beta corresponds to the sample size n, which is lower than the complexity of most competing dependence measures.      

The manufacturing strategy formulation process: Linking multifunctional viewpoints

While there has been considerable research on the content of manufacturing strategy, there is a paucity of literature concerning the process of manufacturing strategy formulation [Ward, P.T., Brickford, D.J., Leong, G.K., 1996. Configuration of manufacturing strategy, business strategy, environment, and structure, J. Manage., 22(4) 597–626; Leong, G.K., Snyder, D.L., Ward, P.T., 1990. Research in the process and content of manufacturing strategy, Omega, 18(2) 109–122]. Many researchers have highlighted the need to overcome this deficiency by studying the process of developing manufacturing strategy [Adam, E.E., Swamidass, P.M., 1989. Assessing operations management from a strategic perspective, J. Manage., 15(2) 181–203; Anderson et al., 1989; Leong, G.K., Snyder, D.L., Ward, P.T., 1990. Research in the process and content of manufacturing strategy, Omega, 18(2) 109–122]. To effectively link the manufacturing strategy of a firm to the needs of the marketplace, critical competitive factors or order-winning criteria must be understood and agreed upon both by operations and marketing managers [Hill, T.J., 1983. Manufacturing's strategic role, J. Operational Res. Soc., 34(9) 853–860; Hill, T.J., 1994. Manufacturing Strategy—Text and Cases, 2nd edn., Irwin, Homewood, IL]. For this study, we created and examined a process of establishing a set of order-winning criteria for a consumer pharmaceuticals firm which involved the participation of sixteen managers from seven functional areas over four months. The foundation of the process was developed by Hill [Hill, T.J., 1989. Manufacturing Strategy—Text and Cases. Irwin, Homewood, IL; Hill, T.J., 1994. Manufacturing Strategy—Text and Cases, 2nd edn., Irwin, Homewood, IL], however it was soon evident that additional steps were required. The expanded process we developed both exposed significantly differing views among the managers and raised several questions with important managerial and research implications.     

Causes and consequences of exports' channel integration

This paper investigates the decision to export with a proprietary exports channel by Spanish manufacturing firms. The research focuses on the effects of organizational capabilities versus scale economies on the vertical integration decision, and postulates a system of two simultaneous equations to properly evaluate the influence of a proprietary exports channel on the volume of exports. The results show that scale economies are more relevant than organizational capabilities in the decision to vertically integrate, and that, when properly evaluated, the exports mode does not influence the level of exports. The first author acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education (CICYT SEC97-1368) and Comunidad de Madrid (06/0067/98). Previous versions of this paper have been presented at the 24th EARIE Conference in Leuven (Belgium), XIII Jornadas de Economía Industrial in Madrid (Spain). The authors want to thank two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions, although any remaining mistake is our own responsibility.     

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective

The spike in international food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 drew much attention to the vulnerability of the poor to such shocks. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices of agricultural goods on global poverty using a representative sample of 63–93% of the developing world's population. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food price data between January 2005 and December 2007—when the relative price of food staples rose by an average of 5.6%—to find that the number of individuals living under the extreme poverty line increased by 155 million, with almost three‐quarters of this increase taking place in East Asia. To take the second‐order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that the same increase in consumer prices of agricultural goods (modeled by increasing demand for first‐generation biofuels) would raise the number of individuals living under extreme poverty by 32 million, with nearly the entire increase occurring in South Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

HOW EFFECTIVE ARE UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT SANCTIONS? LOOKING BEYOND UNEMPLOYMENT EXIT

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of benefit sanctions on post‐unemployment outcomes such as post‐unemployment employment stability and earnings. We use rich register data which allow us to distinguish between a warning that a benefit reduction may take place in the near future and the actual withdrawal of unemployment benefits. Adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity, we find that warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post‐unemployment earnings. Actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post‐unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.