Financial cycles and fiscal multipliers

We show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets, as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with output growth via an identification bias and an omitted variable bias, thus overstating episodes of expansionary consolidations and downplaying contractionary consolidations. When controlling for asset and credit market movements in otherwise standard approaches to identification, we find multipliers to increase on average by 0.3–1 units. Fiscal consolidations are thus more likely to be contractionary and more harmful to growth than expected by some strands of the existing literature.     

An Empirical Analysis of Mexican Merger Policy

A newly created dataset including 239 decisions made by the Mexican Federal Competition Commission on horizontal mergers is used to estimate the different factors affecting the Commission’s resolution decisions. The decision-making process has been approximated by two different discrete choice models. Our results indicate that, contrary to the Commission’s objective, the presence of efficiency gains increases the probability of a case being challenged. We also find that factors different from the ones explicitly mentioned by the Commission have a significant effect upon the Commission’s final decision. In particular, the presence of a foreign company among the would-be merger firms significantly increases the likelihood of observing an allowed merger.      

Long-term relationships as safeguards

We analyze a repeated prisoners’ dilemma game played in a community setting with heterogeneous types. The setting is such that individuals choose whether to continue interacting with their present partner, or separate and seek a new partner. Players’ types are not directly observed, but may be imperfectly inferred from observed behavior. We focus on a class of equilibria that satisfy zero tolerance and fresh start. We find that the punishment for defecting and the reward for cooperating are driven by the formation and the dissolution of long-term, high-paying relationships: an individual who defects, aborts a long-term relationship that he is in, or that he might have entered into, is thrown into short-term interactions with individuals who are likely to defect and, consequently, receives low payoffs. On the flip side, an individual who cooperates, enters into or prolongs a long-term interaction with a partner who cooperates and, consequently, receives high payoffs.     

Optimal decisions in foreign exchange bidding markets

I characterize optimal bidding decisions in bidding markets where each agent does not perceive she can significantly affect the market outcome. Using a foreign exchange bidding framework to provide a micro-foundation for the shape of a bidder's payoff function, I show that (1) in a discriminatory auction a bidder bids for a price that equals the value of the marginal product of her bid quantity, and (2) in a competitive auction a bidder bids for a price that equals the value of the average product of her bid quantity. An example illustrates the comparative properties of these solutions.     

Simultaneous Models for Contingency Tables: A Reanalysis of Heatherton et al. (1997) Data on Eating Behavior

In panel studies, where a categorical response is measured attwo points in time, we can examine two kind of hypotheses regardingthe nature of change. The first is related with change at theindividual level (gross change) through the modelling of joint distributionof responses. The second is related with aggregate change (netchange) through the modelling of marginal distributions of responses.This paper describes a general approach to the analysis of two-wavepanel data based on Lang and Agresti's work (1994) that simultaneouslypermits the modelling of marginal and joint distributions of responses.This approach is illustrated with data from Heatherton et al.(1997) about change in dieting behaviour. These data were originallyanalyzed using the ² statistic to test independenceof responses. This paper shows how it is possible toobtain a better understanding of these data using the proposedmethodological approach.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand

We explore entry into a foreign market with uncertain demand growth. A multinational can serve the foreign demand by two modes, or by a combination thereof: it can export its products, or it can create productive capacity via foreign direct investment (FDI). The advantage of FDI is that it allows for lower marginal cost than exporting does. The disadvantage is that FDI is irreversible and, hence, entails the risk of creating under-utilized capacity in the case that the market turns out to be small. The presence of demand uncertainty and irreversibility gives rise to an interior solution, where the multinational, under certain conditions, both exports its products and does FDI.     

Exports,Gender Wage Gaps,and Poverty in Honduras

This paper identifies and estimates the reduction in poverty attributable to the improved opportunities that international trade integration offered to women in Honduras. The expansion of the export-oriented maquila sector has brought gender equality both in terms of employment and labour earnings. A simulation exercise shows that, at a given point in time, poverty in Honduras would have been 1.5 percentage points higher had the maquila sector not existed. Of this increase in poverty, 0.35 percentage points is attributable to the wage premium paid to maquila workers, 0.1 percentage points to the wage premium received by women in the maquila sector, and 1 percentage point to employment creation.     

Investment in online advertising and return on sales: Does it pay to outsource the services to an advertising agency?

Abstract

The effect of investing in online advertising on a firm’s financial outcomes can depend on whether or not the development and implementation of advertising campaigns are managed by advertising agencies. Agencies may have experienced professionals or workload to perform these jobs, but the costs are greater. This paper aims to investigate the effects of investments in digital marketing on the financial outcome of a company’s services, comparing whether or not it is outsourced to advertising agencies. The secondary data relates to services advertised and marketed by a firm. We tested the possible moderating effect of outsourcing the service in the relationship between investment in online advertising (Google and Facebook) and return on sales (profit margin), by controlling the effect of covariates. Through four regression analyses, the results showed that outsourcing the service moderates the relationship. Specifically, the higher the amount of advertising investment, the more it pays to outsource the service to an advertising agency in order to generate greater profit margin. But with a low investment value, it does not pay to outsource. This study helps to identify situations in which it pays to outsource digital marketing services to an advertising agency.     

Nonlinear behaviour of emerging market bonds spreads: the Latin American case

In this article we check for nonlinear behaviour of the 10 most important Latin American emerging market bonds spreads. Applying the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test, the BDS test and the Engle LM test, we observe systematic nonlinear structure in the spreads series. Our results suggest that the nonlinear serial dependencies are episodic in nature. All the stock returns series (with the exception of Mexico) are characterized by few brief periods of highly significant nonlinearity, followed by long time periods in which the returns follow a pure noise process. Our findings support the idea that, even in this well informed and sophisticated market, the weak-form of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be supported.