Economic stagnation and development aid

The main objectors to a link being established between special drawing rights (SDRs) and the financing of development have in the past been the industrial countries. They have been pointing out that SDRs were created for other purposes — more effective control over international liquidity — and that a link with development finance would have an inflationary effect. If however the present unemployment situation in the industrial countries should become at least partly a permanent feature the idea of such a link would become more attractive than hitherto — to the industrial countries.     

Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk

We study the profitability of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) arbitrage violations and their relationship with market liquidity and credit risk using a novel and unique dataset of tick-by-tick firm quotes for all financial instruments involved in the arbitrage strategy. The empirical analysis shows that positive CIP arbitrage deviations include a compensation for liquidity and credit risk. Once these risk premia are taken into account, small arbitrage profits only accrue to traders who are able to negotiate low trading costs. The results are robust to stale pricing and the nonsynchronous trading occurring in the markets involved in the arbitrage strategy.     

Financial statement data in assessing the future potential of a technology firm: The case of Nokia

The paper introduces a financial statement method to assess the future potential of a firm. First, the last strategic steady phase is identified. Second, growth rate for total expenditure is estimated (growth process). Third, the revenue generating potential of total expenditure is evaluated by a distributed lag function (revenue-generating process). This function is used to recalculate expenses and assets using alternative depreciation theories. Third, financial behavior is modeled by analyzing financial assets, taxation, interest expenses and revenues, and dividends (financial process). Fourth, these processes are used to assess the future potential. The method is illustrated by the case of Nokia for the period 1990-2000.     

Semivariance of Property Value Estimates as a Determinant of Default Risk

Standard practice in the residential mortgage underwriting industry is to estimate collateral values via independent appraisals conducted by third parties. This paper empirically examines the role of property value ( i.e. , appraisal) uncertainty as a determinant of default on residential mortgage loans. Based upon an analysis of 1,428 residential loans drawn from the portfolio of a national mortgage lender, we find evidence that semivariance in property value uncertainty is related to default risk. Specifically, subject properties that are valued above the sales price of recently sold "similar and proximate" properties show evidence of greater default risk. Interestingly, a variance (range) measure of property value uncertainty is not significantly related to default risk.     

Effects of the realignment on LDCs

The Washinton Realignment aims at adjusting the distortions of exchange rates which have arisen during the past years. In doing so, new data have been set for the future. These data have been fixed by the industrial countries. The less developed countries (LDCs) are affected thereby without having had the possibility of exercising an influence on the agreement.     

Forecasting Intraday Volatility and Value-at-Risk with High-Frequency Data

In this paper, we develop modeling tools to forecast Value-at-Risk and volatility with investment horizons of less than one day. We quantify the market risk based on the study at a 30-min time horizon using modified GARCH models. The evaluation of intraday market risk can be useful to market participants (day traders and market makers) involved in frequent trading. As expected, the volatility features a significant intraday seasonality, which motivates us to include the intraday seasonal indexes in the GARCH models. We also incorporate realized variance (RV) and time-varying degrees of freedom in the GARCH models to capture more intraday information on the volatile market. The intrinsic tail risk index is introduced to assist with understanding the inherent risk level in each trading time interval. The proposed models are evaluated based on their forecasting performance of one-period-ahead volatility and Intraday Value-at-Risk (IVaR) with application to the 30 constituent stocks. We find that models with seasonal indexes generally outperform those without; RV can improve the out-of-sample forecasts of IVaR; student GARCH models with time-varying degrees of freedom perform best at 0.5 and 1 % IVaR, while normal GARCH models excel for 2.5 and 5 % IVaR. The results show that RV and seasonal indexes are useful to forecasting intraday volatility and Intraday VaR.     

New evidence on the first financial bubble

The Mississippi Bubble, South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Windhandel of 1720 together represent the world's first global financial bubble. We hand-collect cross-sectional price data and investor account data from 1720 to test theories about market bubbles. Our tests suggest that innovation was a key driver of bubble expectations. We present evidence against the currently prevailing debt-for-equity conversion hypothesis and relate stock returns to innovations in Atlantic trade and insurance. We find evidence consistent with the innovation-driven bubble dynamics documented by Pastor and Veronesi (2009) for new economy stocks. Our evidence seems inconsistent with clientele-based theories that emphasize bubble-riding and short-sales restrictions.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYZING CHANGES IN STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE

In this paper we present a framework for analyzing changes in strategic performance. Traditional measures for comparing the strategic performance across firms or over time have been return on investment (ROI) and its component ratio, return on sales (ROS). We decompose the ROS ratio into four separate ratios that capture the impact of changes in a firm's productivity, price recovery, product mix and capacity utilization on its profitability. These ratios help to highlight the micro sources of strategic success or failure. They can be used to assess changes in the performance of a firm compared to itself over time, or to other firms in its industry group. This framework can also be used to evaluate changes in the dynamic performance of an industry as a whole. We illustrate the use of these ratios with a 4-year analysis of the performance of a large manufacturing company. We also demonstrate how the technique can be applied to an industry with an evaluation of the performance of U.S. telecommunications firms between 1975 and 1987, a period during which the industry experienced a progressive increase in competitive pressure.