Can outstanding dividend payments be estimated by American options?

Based on historical market data for American options on a stock and no-arbitrage bounds on future dividends they can!      

Practical Problems with Reduced‐rank ML Estimators for Cointegration Parameters and a Simple Alternative*

Johansen's reduced‐rank maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for cointegration parameters in vector error correction models is known to produce occasional extreme outliers. Using a small monetary system and German data we illustrate the practical importance of this problem. We also consider an alternative generalized least squares (GLS) system estimator which has better properties in this respect. The two estimators are compared in a small simulation study. It is found that the GLS estimator can indeed be an attractive alternative to ML estimation of cointegration parameters.     

重新发现IT外包

IT业务外包已成为越来越普遍的现象,然而,企业从外包中获得好处的愿望能否成真?企业的商务环境是否发生了彻底变化?BCG专家经过研究认为,如果你对上述任一问题的答案是肯定的,那现在就到了你对上一次IT外包举措进行批判性审视的时候了。     

Distortions in world trade: Recent developments

The functioning of the world trading system is seriously distorted by a multitude of protectionist measures that impede a possible expansion in world trade and national product. Hans Joachim Hochstrate and Ralf Zeppernick analyse the latest developments against the background of the current Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations.     

Market-testing Healthcare: Managed Care, Market Evolution and the Search for Regulatory Principles

The growing costs of healthcare as a percentage of GDP in the industrial countries are causing considerable problems for these economies, but any attempt to change the existing healthcare system in any given country is usually accompanied by hefty political debate. A system needs to be found that rations healthcare efficiently and effectively, and which is also politically acceptable. The following article examines recent changes in the healthcare systems in the UK and USA and discusses the extent to which they meet these criteria.     

Foreign direct investment and wages in domestic firms in Ireland: Productivity spillovers versus labour‐market crowding out

There is a large literature on the positive spillovers frequently thought to be associated with inward foreign direct investment. Aitken et al. (1996 Aitken, BJ, Harrison, AE and Lipsey, RE. (1996). Wages and foreign ownership: a comparative study of Mexico, Venezuela, and the United States. Journal of International Economics, 40: pp. 345–71 [Google Scholar]) identify several cases, however, where inward FDI appears to have reduced wages in domestic firms. They suggest that this might arise either because foreign firms increase the degree of product‐market competition that domestic firms face, or because they poach the best workers from domestic firms. We concentrate on the second effect, arguing that the first is unlikely to arise in the Irish case to which our data pertain. In a theoretical section we show that the labour‐market poaching effect cannot generate the results postulated if labour markets are competitive and production functions are of the Cobb–Douglas variety, but that it can arise if production functions display higher elasticities of substitution. In an empirical section based on a sample of larger Irish firms we show that, consistent with our theoretical model, foreign presence has different effects on wages and productivity in domestic exporting and non‐exporting establishments.     

Inflation targeting in an import dependent indebted economy

This paper develops a one-sector Kaleckian model of an import dependent indebted small open economy; where the mark-up rate is sensitive to both changes in the interest rate and the exchange rate and foreigners provide part of the long-term finance. The short-run consequences of an inflation targeting policy in the form of high interest rates and strong domestic currency are explored. Among the possible short-run scenarios, the one most relevant for developing countries involves a decline in the profit rate, the capacity utilization rate and the rate of accumulation as well as the employment rate and the real wage. Leverage ratio of the firms and the extent of external indebtedness play an important role in bringing about this result. Long-run analysis reveals that this scenario is associated with instability in the long run and that, also in the long run, the extent of foreign indebtedness and the responsiveness of capital inflows to the return on existing portfolios are important in determining the direction of the effects of inflation targeting on the equilibrium debt–capital ratio.