The Causal Relationship Between Real Estate and Stock Markets

This paper examines the dynamic relationship that exists between the US real estate and S&P 500 stock markets between the years of 1972 to 1998. This is achieved by conducting both linear and nonlinear causality tests. The results from these tests provide a number of interesting observations which primarily show linear relationships to be spuriously affected by structural shifts which are inherent within the data. Linear test results generally show a uni-directional relationship to exist from the real estate market to the stock market. However, these results are not consistent with financial theory and for all sub-samples of the data. In contrast, the nonlinear causality test shows a strong unidirectional relationship running from the stock market to the real estate market, and is consistent in the presence of any structural breaks.     

A New Approach to Gravity Anomaly Separation: Differential Markov Random Field (DMRF)

In this paper the authors introduce a novel approach to stochastic image processing, denoted as Differential Markov Random Field (DMRF), which has been applied to gravity anomaly separation problems. The advantages of the method are that it introduces only little distortion into the shape of the original image and that it is not affected significantly by factors such as the overlap power spectra of regional and residual fields. Testing of the proposed meth using synthetic examples gave excellent results.     

Rationierung: Teufelszeug oder Herausforderung zum Umdenken?

Umgang mit knappen Ressourcen - Das Schreckgespenst der Rationierung macht sich im Gesundheitswesen breit und beunruhigt Patienten, Anbieter von Gesundheitsleistungen und den Gesetzgeber gleicherma?en. Pflegende befürchten, selbst Opfer oder Henkersknechte dieses Ph?nomens zu werden. Sind diese ?ngste begründet? Und – besteht die M?glichkeit zum Gegensteuern? Eine kritische Einsch?tzung von Ralf Gratias.     

Pflegeberatung ist Vertrauenssache

M?ngeln in der h?uslichen Pflege pr?ventiv begegnen – Vertrauen ohne Kontrolle, Routine, überforderung oder das Nichtbeachten des Beziehungsgeflechtes zwischen Pflegenden und Gepflegten führt oft zu Problemen. Der Gesetzgeber verpflichtete deshalb die Pflegekassen und Tr?gerverb?nde von ambulanten Pflegeeinrichtungen zur Erarbeitung von Richtlinien und standardisierten Verfahren für die Pflegefachberatung. Leider gibt es bislang keine verbindliche Umsetzung.     

Determinants of Saving-Borrowing Decisions and Financial Inclusion in a High Middle Income Country: The Turkish Case

We use a representative survey of the Turkish household sector and investigate factors impinging on saving-borrowing behavior. We run four probit regressions to elucidate (i) the saving decision, (ii) asset choice or portfolio composition for those who save, (iii) the bank loan decision and lastly (iv) the formal versus informal borrowing decision. We find income, education, marital status and region within country strongly correlate with those decisions. We offer some insights regarding the influence of variables like rural to urban migrant status and religious belief on saving and borrowing decisions. We discuss the long-term implications of our findings on the Turkish household savings performance.     

Hidden Overhang of Domestic Debt and Its Role in the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome: An Empirical Contingent Liabilities Model

The recent studies in public finance literature open an exciting research area on hidden overhang of domestic public debt and creative accounting. In this study, I identify hidden public debts in Turkey. I then develop a dynamical model that takes as given the stock of contingent liabilities generated by lending/borrowing relationships among public entities and looks for the debt (in)tolerance of government to liquidate it in finite periods. Last, I introduce a general empirical methodology to analyze the role of overborrowing in the this-time-is-different syndrome and test model outcome against data for hidden debts in Turkey's postliberalization period (1989-2010).     

The effect of personal portfolio reporting on private investors

Information search is costly for private households, especially in relation to their wealth. This paper investigates how retail customers react to free portfolio reporting—and thus reduced search costs—in a unique experimental setting. A large German direct bank sends portfolio reports to 10,000 customers while maintaining a control group of equal size and structure that receives no reports. Analyzing demographics as well as detailed portfolio and trade data, we find that gender, wealth, trade frequency, risk tolerance, and diversification drive the interest in portfolio information. Reading a portfolio report also triggers trading actions; thus, investors seem to appreciate the reduced information costs and act on the information. In addition to contributing to the financial literature on households’ information acquisition, this study derives valuable implications for financial institutions regarding communications and services for their customers.