Spillover Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainties in India

This paper examines the spillover effects and the causality between inflation, output growth and its uncertainties for India. Using monthly data for the period from April 1980 to April 2011, we estimated a bi-variate GARCH in mean with BEKK representations. This study differs from the earlier works where the parameters in the BEKK representations are estimated individually and the inferences are drawn on the basis of the individual lagged variance, covariance, and error terms from the respective equations. The empirical evidence suggests that inflation uncertainty seems to have significant negative impact on output growth and positive impact on output uncertainty and there is a positive influence of output uncertainty on the inflation. More importantly, there are spillovers and volatility transmission effects between the macroeconomic uncertainties where the volatility in output growth is significantly influenced by the shocks and volatility in inflation.

     

The state of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets: A multidisciplinary literature review

The objective of this research work is to study the progress of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and outline and identify the key disciplines, journals, articles and authors. For this the author studied the existing literature from the various fields in which technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets research work have been published using ISI Web of Knowledge database. The paper finds that there is increasing research work on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and the bibliographical search resulted in ninety-one documents written by one-hundred-sixty-one authors in eighty-four journals in seventy-two disciplines. The five major disciplines and their underlying journals are business and economics, agriculture, psychology, public administration, and environmental sciences and ecology accounting for majority of publications. In journals the most prolific, measured by number of articles published are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine, World Development, and Higher Education; and most influential, measured by the global citation received, are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine and Sociological Review. The top 10% of the journals are responsible for 23% of all publications but 85% of all global citations received. This highlights that despite the high, diverse and increasing number of journals; only few are dominating and shaping the research arena of technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets. Further, in the ten most cited articles, no author appears more than once.     

Temporary stabilization with capital controls

This paper studies both positive and normative aspects of quantity-based capital controls in a small open economy undergoing a temporary inflation stabilization plan. In the model, capital controls are implemented by choosing two policy variables: a ceiling on the private sector debt and a terminal date for removing controls; the date on which controls trigger and hence its duration are endogenously determined. Equilibrium dynamics are characterized for all feasible range of debt ceilings and durations. Temporary controls that end with the collapse of the stabilization plan are shown to mitigate consumption boom-bust cycles and dominate allocations under perfect capital mobility, thus providing a “second-best” rationale for employing them. For controls that are prolonged beyond the collapse of the stabilization plan, equilibria exist even when the debt ceiling is above the debt that accumulates under perfect capital mobility. Here, if the ceiling is sufficiently low, controls mitigate consumption cycles. Conversely, a sufficiently high ceiling amplifies consumption cycles. For prolonged controls, there is a critical value of debt ceiling below (above) which the welfare is higher (lower) relative to the perfect capital mobility case. Finally, for a given debt ceiling, prolonged controls rank lower in welfare than those that end with the stabilization plan. We would like to thank two anonymous referees and the editor whose suggestions have helped us improve the paper substantially. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Modelling the dynamics of Bitcoin and Litecoin: GARCH versus stochastic volatility models

We examine and compare a large number of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) and stochastic volatility (SV) models using series of Bitcoin and Litecoin price returns to assess the model fit for dynamics of these cryptocurrency price returns series. The various models examined include the standard GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, t-distributed and moving average innovations. We report that the best model for Bitcoin is SV-t while it is GARCH-t for Litecoin. Overall, the t-class of models performs better than other classes for both cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, the SV models consistently outperform the GARCH models and the same holds true for Litecoin in most cases. Finally, the comparison of GARCH models with GARCH-GJR models reveals that the leverage effect is not significant for cryptocurrencies, suggesting that these do not behave like stock prices.     

Efficiency and Market Power Gains in Bank Megamergers: Evidence from Value Line Forecasts

This paper examines whether gains in bank megamergers occur due to efficiency improvements or the exercise of market power using financial statement line item forecasts from Value Line to infer the effect of the merger on prices and quantities. The average megamerger is associated with cost‐efficiency improvements. In the cross‐section, efficiency gains are limited to market expansion mergers while market overlap mergers and Too‐Big‐To‐Fail (TBTF) mergers exhibit monopoly gains. Efficiency gains dissipate when the resulting megabank size exceeds $150 billion in assets or 1.5% of gross domestic product indicating that banks thought to be TBTF are likely to be “Too‐Big‐To‐Be‐Efficient.”     

Temporary Stabilizations, Sudden Stops, and Asset Prices

The authors study a temporary exchange-rate based stabilization plan in which agents face a sudden stop of capital inflows. The model generates a rising path of real interest rates in advance of the exchange rate collapse. This generates a time-dependent non-monotonic path of required premium on domestic assets. The model-generated asset price dynamics closely mimic their empirical counterpart, as witnessed during recent collapses of exchange-rate based stabilization plans. The model also reproduces consumption and foreign reserve dynamics that closely mimic the data.     

Inventory buffers in recoverable manufacturing

Recoverable manufacturing is becoming an increasingly important alternative to firms as they develop environmentally sound strategies aimed at minimizing waste and resources. It helps minimize costs and conserve resources through methods such as extending product life cycles via remanufacturing which uses only a fraction of the resources and energy associated with a new product. In this study the creation and location of inventory buffers (delay buffers) and their impact on other managerial operating decisions is examined in the context of a remanufacturing environment. It is shown that inventory buffer decisions are significantly impacted by the method used to release parts from the disassembly stage to the remanufacturing stage within the remanufacturing environment. Based on observations and on discussions with managers in remanufacturing facilities several managerial propositions are stated. These propositions are examined, via a simulation model of an operating facility, and recommendations as to the inventory buffer to use in conjunction with the disassembly release policy (for parts) are made for the remanufacturing environment.     

Optimal Growth with Endogenous Technical Progress: Hicksian Bias in a Macro Model

If productivity growth is endogenous, the question of whether to allocate some resources to increase the efficiency of capital needs to be examined in spite of the conventional wisdom that only Harrod-neutral technical progress is compatible with the steady state. This paper describes the crucial role that the production technology and research sectors play in determining the allocation of resources for accumulating physical capital and enhancing the productivity of inputs. We develop a model of biased growth, where, even in the steady state, the efficiency of capital and labour are increasing due to the allocation of resources to the research sector.
JEL Classification Numbers: C62, O31.     

Performance Incentives within Firms: The Effect of Managerial Responsibility

We show that top management incentives vary by responsibility. For oversight executives, pay‐performance incentives are $1.22 per thousand dollar increase in shareholder wealth higher than for divisional executives. For CEOs, incentives are $5.65 higher than for divisional executives. Incentives for the median top management team are substantial at $32.32. CEOs account for 42 to 58 percent of aggregate team incentives. For divisional executives, the pay–divisional performance sensitivity is positive and increasing in the precision of divisional performance and the pay–firm performance sensitivity is decreasing in the precision of divisional performance. These results support principal–agent models with multiple signals of managerial effort.     

Culture‐Led Discrepancies and Negotiating Conflicts in Strategic Outsourcing Alliances

Outsourcing and alliance collaboration have become prominent features of the global economy. Empirical studies demonstrate that outsourcing alliances are often not as successful as their initiators expect them to be. National cultural differences are frequently viewed as a crucial factor when such alliances fail. While empirical studies are abundant, theoretical frameworks that explicate the role of national cultural differences in shaping the dynamics of outsourcing alliances are rare. This article builds on Kumar and Nti's (1998) discrepancy model to specify how culture affects the dynamics of outsourcing alliances. We suggest that national cultural differences give rise to process and outcome discrepancies in outsourcing alliances. Notably, outsourcing alliances evolve through three stages–formation, operation and outcome–with discrepancies arising in each of these stages (Das & Teng, 2002). We develop a framework to link discrepancy management to these different stages, and to the notions of task‐oriented and relationship‐oriented cultures. Our study has a number of implications for future research and managerial practice. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.