Analysing Yield Spread and Output Dynamics in an Endogenous Markov Switching Regression Framework

In this article we analyse the relationship between yield spread and the economic activity by allowing the parameters of the regression to be driven by an endogenous Markov chain. Using the endogenous model, we could obtain accurate parameter estimates and the specification of our model is empirically supported. Our empirical results may indicate that people with low risk tolerance more likely to prefer a low volatility state over a high volatility one, while people with high risk tolerance are more likely to prefer a high volatility state over a low volatility one.      

Robust row-column designs for complete diallel cross experiments

This paper investigates the robustness of variance-balanced row-column designs for complete diallel cross experiments for estimating the comparisons among the general combining ability parameters against the loss of observations. A necessary and sufficient condition of robustness as per connectedness criterion is obtained. The robustness of optimal row-column designs of Gupta and Choi (1998) has been investigated for the loss of any m(≥1) observations in a column and for the loss of any two observations in the design. The study of robustness has also been conducted as per A-efficiency criterion.     

Exploiting volatility movements in the Sydney futures exchange's bank bill contract

An appropriate stochastic model was fitted to one year of data on the implied volatility of options on 90 day bank accepted bill futures contracts traded in the Sydney Futures Exchange. The model used was ARIMA augmented with day of the week variables, an option time to maturity variable, and recent values of historic volatility. The high ex-post predictive accuracy of the model was then employed as the central element of a strategy of buy low/sell high volatility.We employed two trading schemes with suitably constructed Delta neutral portfolios comprising bill futures and call and put options on those futures over a period of six months, to test whether speculative trading profit could be earned. The existence of trading profits before transaction costs validated the potential of the buy low/sell high volatility strategies to generate speculative profits. The absence of any such trading profits after transaction costs however, showed that the market pricing of these securities is such that the dependencies within implied volatility cannot be profitably exploited.This result may be interpreted as evidence supporting an hypothesis of a semi-strong form of market efficiency.     

Volume and Volatility in Foreign Currency Futures Markets

In this paper we propose and test several hypotheses concerning time series properties of trading volume, price, short and long-term relationships between price and volume and the determinants of trading volume in forcign currency futures. The nearby contracts for British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, German Mark and Swiss Franc are analyzed in three frequencies i.e. daily, weekly and monthly.We find supportive evidence for all the five currencies that the price volatility is a determinant of the trading volume changes. Furthermore, the volatility of the price process is a determinant of the unexpected component of the changes in trading volume. Also, there is a significant relationship between the volatility of price and the volatility of trading volume changes for three of the five currencies in the daily frequency and for one currency in the monthly frequency.     

Modelling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: A New Perspective

In this paper we seek to develop a new approach to the time series analysis of foreign exchange risk premia. We do so by assuming a geometric Brownian process for the spot exchange rate and expressing the no-arbitrage spot-forward price relationship under the historical probability measure. We are thereby able to obtain a stochastic differential equation system linking the spot exchange rate, the forward exchange rate and the risk premium (modelled directly as a mean-reverting diffusion process) which we estimate using Kalman filtering techniques. We are able to use observations at a range of frequencies since the framework we set up does not involve overlapping observations. The model is then applied to the French Franc/USD, DEM/USD, GBP/USD, and Japanese Yen/USD exchange rates from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 1998. For all currencies we find evidence that the forward risk premium is stationary and exhibits substantial positive time variation.     

A Multifactor Model of Credit Spreads

We represent credit spreads across ratings as a function of common unobservable factors of the Vasicek form. Using a state-space approach we estimate the factors, their process parameters, and the exposure of each observed credit spread series to each factor. We find that most of the systematic variation across credit spreads is captured by three factors. The factors are closely related to the implied volatility index (VIX), the long bond rate, and S&P500 returns, supporting the predictions of structural models of default at an aggregate level. By making no prior assumption about the determinants of yield spread dynamics, our study provides an original and independent test of theory. The results also contribute to the current debate about the role of liquidity in corporate yield spreads. While recent empirical literature shows that the level and time-variation in corporate yield spreads is driven primarily by a systematic liquidity risk factor, we find that the three most important drivers of yield spread levels relate to macroeconomic variables. This suggests that if credit spread levels do contain a large liquidity premium, the time variation of this premium is likely driven by the same factors as default risk.     

Testing for long-term memory in yen/dollar exchange rate

This paper examines evidence of long-term memory in the yen/dollar price change as well as in the daily estimate of volatility of the exchange rate series. The methodology used is due to Lo (1989) which is robust to the presence of heteroscedasticity and is applied to a ten year data set. The result shows no evidence of long-term memory in the price change series indicating efficient pricing by the market participants. The volatility series, however, shows evidence of long-term memory which may have implications for traders dealing with long lived assets.     

Return and Volatility Dynamics in the Spot and Futures Markets in Australia: An Intervention Analysis in a Bivariate EGARCH‐X Framework

This article provides evidence of linkages between the equity market and the index futures market in Australia, where the futures market has experienced a major structural event due to the futures contract respecification. A bivariate Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model is developed that includes a cointegrating residual as an explanatory variable for both the conditional mean and the conditional variance. The conditional mean returns from both markets are influenced by the long‐run equilibrium relationship, and these markets are informationally linked through the second moments. The crossmarket spillovers exhibit asymmetric behavior in that the volatility responses to past standardized innovations are different for market advances and market retreats. An intervention analysis shows that some of the parameters describing the return‐generating process have shifted after the contract respecification by the futures exchange. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:833–850, 2001     

Strategic groups and competitive enactment: a study of dynamic relationships between mental models and performance

This study used computer-assisted content analysis of more than four hundred presidents' letters to shareholders to examine empirical linkages between cognitive strategic groups clustered by themes in the reports and strategic groups clustered by performance. We found these groups converged as predicted by the literature, and that mental models and performance are involved in a recursive process of competitive enactment which contributes to strategic group stability. Our research used inductively derived themes from the letters to structure a mental model widely shared in the pharmaceutical industry, and then employed thematic variations to find stable clusters of companies. These thematic clusters were triangulated with the strategic groups from a published study of the same industry, in the same period, and were shown to converge. Additionally, longitudinal linkages between earlier mental models of strategic goals and later reports of performance were found. The findings of our large-scale empirical study support strategic group theory, demonstrate a novel approach to data mining, and pose questions for future research. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.