Market shares analysis: The Case of French Tourism Demand

This paper examines the magnitudes and determinants of changes in destinations’ shares of a major tourist origin market. The Almost Ideal Demand System model is used to quantify the responsiveness of French tourism demand in Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, tourists’ expenditure budget, and external events. The results indicate that effective price competitiveness is a key variable driving changes in market shares. Policymakers who wish to maintain their shares of the French market should pay particular attention to tourism pricing policies, as well as to improving the tourism offer.     

How Do Investors Interpret Announcements of Earnings Delays?

Unlike in the case of delays of 10‐K or 10‐Q filings, the SEC does not require managers to disclose delays of earnings announcements to the public. Thus, for companies that are unable to report earnings by their expected date, managers face a decision: remain silent or announce the delay. Prior research has investigated all earnings delays, whether or not they are accompanied by announcements of the delay announcement, and found that the market reaction is slightly negative, on average, for companies that allow their expected earnings dates to pass without disclosing results. It's not clear, however, whether this negative reaction was due to the absence of news or to the information contained in the announcements of the earnings delays. The authors' recent study documents that earnings delay announcements are associated with an average one‐day abnormal stock return of a negative 6%. This statistically as well as economically significant reduction in value is consistent with anecdotal evidence in the popular business press as well as predictions of disclosure theories, in particular the explanation that concerns about legal liability and managerial reputation motivate managers to disclose bad news. The study also shows that almost all managers who announce earnings delays attempt to influence the market reaction by disclosing the underlying cause. Finally, the study shows that the market reaction to earnings delay announcements is positively related to future earnings changes, consistent with the role of these disclosures in providing a signal of deteriorating financial performance.     

ExpertLens: A system for eliciting opinions from a large pool of non-collocated experts with diverse knowledge

The complexity of policy decision-making raises the need to elicit opinions from large and heterogeneous groups of stakeholders with broad and diverse sets of expertise. Existing options for elicitation include small face-to-face panels of experts by using the Nominal Group Technique (NGT), large Delphi panels whose members do not interact with each other face-to-face, and crowdsourcing, which involves an open call for input issued to a large community of people. In an attempt to close the gap between the practical needs of policy makers and the methodological challenges associated with eliciting opinions of large, diverse, and distributed groups, we have developed a new online elicitation system and methodology called ExpertLens. By optimizing the direct interactions of NGT with the larger number of Delphi participants and the wisdom of “selected crowds,” our approach is designed to save on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy in elicitation by reducing the potential for group process losses that can occur in large, diverse, and non-collocated panels whose members interact via asynchronous online discussion boards. The ExpertLens approach is iterative, does not require participants to develop consensus, and determines what the group “thinks” by statistically analyzing data collected in all rounds of the elicitation. This paper describes the ExpertLens system and methodology, briefly discusses recent ExpertLens trials, provides conceptual arguments for why it is an appropriate model for eliciting expert opinions, illustrates its main components and analytics by using an infrastructure investment example, and discusses a research agenda for testing the underlying tenets of the ExpertLens approach.     

Financial Distress in the Great Depression

We use firm‐level data to study corporate performance during the Great Depression era for all industrial firms on the NYSE. Our goal is to identify the factors that contribute to business insolvency and valuation changes during the period 1928‐1938. We find that firms with more debt and lower bond ratings in 1928 became financially distressed more frequently during the Depression, consistent with the trade‐off theory of leverage and the information production role of credit rating agencies. We also document for the first time that firms responded to tax incentives to use debt during the Depression era but that the extra debt used in response to this tax‐driven “debt bias” did not contribute significantly to the occurrence of distress. Finally, we conduct an out‐of‐sample test during the recent 2008‐2009 Recession and find that higher leverage and lower bond ratings also increased the occurrence of financial distress during this period.     

Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework

Although the link between trade and growth has long been discussed, systematic empirical investigation of the relationship has been undertaken only relatively recently. A number of time-series studies exist for individual countries in the area of export-led growth, but for Bangladesh there has been little work in this area. This study seeks to bridge an important gap in the literature, and is perhaps the first to use Johansen's multivariate framework taking the terms of trade as an additional variable for Bangladesh. The findings suggest that the direction of both long and short-term causality is from income to exports. This result is hardly surprising as, for most of the period covered, Bangladesh has followed an inward-looking strategy of development that discriminated against exports.     

So,how long have you been in the market? The effect of the timing of observation on purchase

Concentrating on the duration of the purchase deliberation process, we set out to address the following two questions: (1) Given that an individual is at a certain point in the deliberation process, what factors affect the likelihood of purchase? (2) Do the factors affecting purchase vary with the duration of the deliberation process? An empirical analysis of new car purchase survey data suggests that there are in fact significant differences at different stages of the deliberation process. Considerable differences are also found between those individuals who trade in a vehicle and those who do not.     

Toward a telework taxonomy and test for suitability: A synthesis of the literature

The current merging of computer and communications technologies is facilitating the trend towardtelework-remote work arrangements enabled by information technology. Organizations today have ever increasing options in the management and distribution of their work processes. In this study, we review the research on telework conducted in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan. We then propose a taxonomy for classifying different types of telework. Using this taxonomy, we examine the spatial, coordination, and temporal structures of different types of telework.Previous research results indicate that the introduction of telework is a complex process and has profound implications for the organization. However, this research critically lacks any guidance for the decision maker in determining the feasibility of implementing telework. We propose a framework for a telework suitability test to determine the appropriateness of telework, in a particular situation. This telework suitability test integrates existing research findings with future research areas.     

Customer capabilities,switching costs,and bank performance

Customers develop switching costs when they invest time and effort to develop capabilities required to optimally use a given product. Such capabilities are likely to be firm specific and cannot be transferred perfectly to competitors' product offerings. Customers who face switching costs are likely to remain with the same firm and consume complementary products that meet their needs. Thus, firms can achieve competitive advantage by exploiting customers' switching costs. In this paper, we hypothesize that the extent to which firms can benefit from customers' switching costs is contingent upon the firms' internal cross‐selling capabilities. We use online banking data to test our hypotheses and find that customers' switching costs contribute to banks' profitability only in the presence of high levels of internal cross‐selling capabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.