STOCK RETURNS AND OPTION PRICES: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

This study is an investigation of estimates of expected stock returns implicit in option data. The Lee-Rao-Auchmuty option valuation model provides a unique opportunity to examine whether return measurements derived by nonlinear estimation techniques show any correlation with future stock returns. During the short period covered in this study, the Lee-Rao-Auchmuty estimates give preliminary indications that they are better predictors of actual stock returns than are estimates obtained from historical data.     

Option pricing in a lognormal securities market with discrete trading

This paper derives a call option valuation equation assuming discrete trading in securities markets where the underlying asset and market returns are bivariate lognormally distributed and investors have increasing, concave utility functions exhibiting skewness preference. Since the valuation does not require the continouus time riskfree hedging of Black and Scholes, nor the discrete time riskfree hedging of Cox, Ross and Rubinstein, market effects are introduced into the option valuation relation. The new option valuation seems to correct for the systematic mispricing of well-in and well-out of the money options by the Black and Scholes option pricing formula.     

The unintended consequences of PCAOB auditing Standard Nos. 2 and 3 on the reliability of preliminary earnings releases

Implementation of Public Company Accounting Oversight Board Auditing Standards No. 2 on internal control and No. 3 on documentation has delayed audit completion. However, due to market demand for timely disclosures, most firms maintain the same preliminary earnings release date even though the audit may not be complete as of that date. Results indicate revisions to preliminary announcements when filing the 10-K report would have been 35% lower during 2005 if the historical frequency of issuing earnings releases after the audit report date had not changed. Additionally, stock market reaction to impending revisions suggests lower reliability of preliminary earnings.     

Log-concavity and monotonicity of hazard and reversed hazard functions of univariate and multivariate skew-normal distributions

This paper establishes the log-concavity property of several forms of univariate and multivariate skew-normal distributions. This property is then used to prove the monotonicity of the hazard as well as reversed hazard functions. The log-concavity and monotonicity of the hazard and reversed hazard functions of series and parallel systems of components is then discussed. The corresponding results for the multivariate normal distribution follow readily as special cases.     

Proposing and Testing an Intellectual Capital-Based View of the Firm

abstract    This study examines one specific aspect of the resource-based view, intellectual capital, and its three knowledge components – human, organizational, and social capital. We hypothesize that the impact of each component on financial performance is contingent upon the values of the other components, and that these leveraging effects are themselves contingent upon the industry conditions in which a business operates. Our hypotheses are supported using line-of-business survey and FDIC data (within-industry/within-geographic region) from two non-competing resource niches of the banking industry (personal and commercial banking).     

Does modern endogenous growth theory adequately represent Allyn Young?

Endogenous growth theory is now fashionable. It seeks to explainwhy per capita income growth in capital abundant countries isoften faster than in capital poor countries and defies the operationof diminishing returns. This theory, which took off with Romerand Lucas, often makes Allyn Young's concept of increasing returnsand Marshall's distinction between internal and external economiesits starting point but considers their treatment of the subjectas not sufficiently rigorous. The modern endogenous growth theoriststhen claim to explain what they had in mind with greater clarity,rigour and depth. This paper argues that this is not the caseas these theorists actually misrepresent Young in importantways.     

Understanding the Development of IOS-Based Trading Partner Relationships: A Structural Model with Empirical Validation

This study develops a research model that explains the interorganizational system (IOS) network development process in the buyer-supplier relationship. Particular attention is paid to the antecedents and consequences of two types of influence strategies— exercising power and offering IOS support—that a buyer firm often uses in increasing IOS usage with its suppliers. The research model is empirically tested with data obtained through a field survey from a sample of 233 suppliers, each exchanging electronic data interchange (EDI) documents with a nationally known retailing buyer in the United States. We find that the buyer's decision to offer EDI-related support to a supplier is negatively associated with the transaction volume with the supplier but positively with the supplier's IT capabilities as well as the supplier's transaction-specific investments made toward the relationship with the buyer. On the other hand, the buyer's decision to exercise power to a supplier is found to be negatively associated with the transaction volume between the trading partners. Our findings also indicate that offering EDI support, rather than exercising power, is more effectual in inducing greater EDI usage between the trading partners. Finally, the buyer's EDI support is found to be positively associated with suppliers' perceived benefits of using EDI in the relationship that, in turn contributes to more voluntary use of EDI with the buyer.     

Gender,Class, and Caste Schisms in Affirmative Action Policies: The Curious Case of India's Women's Reservation Bill

Following the introduction of economic liberalization policies in 1991, India has registered steady gains in terms of conventional economic indices such as external trade, investment inflows, and foreign exchange reserves. However, globalization has also caused the feminization of poverty. To counter this trend of marginalization of women, it is necessary to address the gender imbalance in decision-making positions. A Constitutional Amendment Bill seeking 33 percent reservation for women in parliament and state legislatures has, however, been scuttled by three successive governments since 1996, even while each party swears by its commitment to gender equity. The reasons for this curious schism showcase a classic example of gender-class-caste alignments and divisions, under political compulsions. This paper examines this ongoing gender-caste-class imbroglio, in the context of Indian affirmative action policies (economic, social, political), which have generated "backlash" reactions.     

Monotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum in bivariate distributions

It is well known that in the case of independent random variables, the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum of two random variables is the sum of the individual (reversed) hazard rates and hence the onotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the marginals is preserved by the monotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum. However, for the bivariate distributions this property is not always preserved. In this paper, we study the monotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum for two well known families of bivariate distributions viz the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) and Sarmanov family. In case of the FGM family, we obtain the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum and provide several examples in some of which the (reversed) hazard rate is monotonic and in others it is non-monotonic. In the case of Sarmanov family the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum may not be expressed in a compact form in general. We consider some examples to illustrate the procedureResearch of the second author is supported by a grant from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and the research of the other two authors is partially supported by a travel grant from the Canadian American Center of the University of Maine     

CEO Stock Options and Equity Risk Incentives

Abstract:   We test the hypothesis that the risk incentive effects of CEO stock option grants motivate managers to take on more risk than they would otherwise. Using a sample of mergers we document that the ratio of post‐ to pre‐merger stock return variance is positively related to the risk incentive effect of CEO stock option compensation but this relationship is conditioned on firm size, with firm size having a moderating effect on the risk incentive effect of stock options. Using a broader time‐series cross‐sectional sample of firms we find a strong positive relationship between CEO risk incentive embedded in the stock options and subsequent equity return volatility. As in the case of the merger sample, this relationship is stronger for smaller firms.