Do Borders Matter? Evidence from Japanese Regional Net Capital Flows

Are international borders barriers to capital flows? We use evidence on net capital flows among regions within a country as a benchmark. For this purpose we develop a data set of saving and investment rates of Japanese prefectures. We find that the correlation between saving and investment rates is higher for OECD countries than for Japanese regions in both time‐series and cross‐sectional data. After controlling for factors that are expected to contribute to a positive correlation in the absence of barriers to capital flows, we conclude that primarily long‐term capital flows are hindered by national borders, as reflected in the cross‐sectional evidence.     

Contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets

This paper shows that stock market contagion occurs as a domino effect, where confined local crashes evolve into more widespread crashes. Using a novel framework based on ordered logit regressions we model the occurrence of local, regional and global crashes as a function of their past occurrences and financial variables. We find significant evidence that global crashes do not occur abruptly but are preceded by local and regional crashes. Besides this form of contagion, interdependence shows up by the effect of interest rates, bond returns and stock market volatility on crash probabilities. When it comes to forecasting global crashes, our model outperforms a binomial model for global crashes only.     

The ‘fresh start’ for individual debtors: social,moral and practical issues

The concept of a “fresh start” for individual debtors has been introduced in the Netherlands in 1998. Until then a natural person could be pursued for the debts he could not pay indefinitely. Their position was not different from the unfortunate debtors in many European countries to day. The entrance to the “fresh start‐ procedure” in the Netherlands is surrounded by impediments, the access is linked to the debtor in good faith, but after three years the fresh start comprises all debts (except student loans), none excluded. In the United States the fresh start doctrine is long established law, the entrance is easy, but many debts may be excluded. Because of public dissatisfaction in both countries the concept has changed. In the Netherlands many debts may now be excluded from the fresh start and in the United States a means test has been introduced. The two concepts of a fresh start for the natural person in both countries, originally so differnt in approach, now converged. Will the twain meet? Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predictors for total hospital and cardiology cost claims among patients with atrial fibrillation initiating dabigatran or acenocoumarol in The Netherlands

Aims: The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) has increased over the past years due to aging of the population, and healthcare costs associated with AF reflect a significant financial burden. The aim of this study was to explore predictors for the real-world AF-related in-hospital costs in patients that recently initiated anticoagulation with acenocoumarol or dabigatran.

Methods: Predictors for claimed total hospital care costs and cardiology costs in AF patients were explored by using hospital financial claims data from propensity score matched patient groups in a large Dutch community hospital. This study analyzed the total dataset (n?=?766) and carried out a secondary analysis for all matched pairs of anticoagulation naïve AF patients (n?=?590) by ordinal regression.

Results: Dabigatran was a predictor for significantly lower cardiology and total hospital care costs (Odds Ratio [OR]?=?0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI)?=?0.33–0.57; and OR?=?0.60, 95% CI?=?0.46–0.79, respectively). Female gender was a predictor for lower total hospital care costs. Predictors for an increase in total hospital care costs were the occurrence of stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding, and minor bleeding. The costs predictors were comparable when limiting the analysis to patients that were anticoagulation naïve. Age and CHA₂DS₂-VASc were not predictors for either cardiology or total hospital care costs in both analyses.

Conclusion: Dabigatran treatment was as a predictor for lower cardiology costs and lower total hospital care costs in AF patients that initiated oral anticoagulation.     

EURANDOM: a decade of European stochastics

Conception, founding, start-up and development of EURANDOM are described by Willem van Zwet, Frank den Hollander (former scientific directors of EURANDOM) and Wim Senden (former managing director of EURANDOM).     

Back to the roots of the M/D/s queue and the works of Erlang, Crommelin and Pollaczek

A.K. Erlang introduced the M/D/ s queue in 1917, while F. Pollaczek and C.D. Crommelin formalized the theory using complex analysis and transforms. Let D ( s , λ ) denote the stationary probability of experiencing no waiting time in the M/D/ s queue with arrival rate λ and service requirement 1. We use D ( s , λ ) as a vehicle to give an overview of some of the results we obtained over the last years, including explicit characterizations of the roots, the derivation of infinite series from expressions in terms of roots using Fourier sampling and heavy-traffic limits obtained from square-root staffing. We propose to call D ( s , λ ) the Erlang D formula, for which several new results are presented and compared with the results of Pollaczek.     

Can Financial Incentives for Regional Education Authorities Reduce School Dropout?

This paper investigates the effect of a new type of financial incentive in education targeted at regional authorities. Previous studies have focused on financial incentives for students, teachers or schools. We identify the effect by exploiting the gradual introduction of a new policy aimed at reducing school dropout in the Netherlands. The introduction of the policy in 14 out of 39 regions and the use of a specific selection rule for the participating regions allow us to estimate local difference-in-differences models. Using administrative data for all Dutch students in the year before and the year after the introduction of the new policy we find no effect of the financial incentive scheme on school dropout. In addition, we find suggestive evidence for manipulation of outcomes in response to the program.     

Effects of Prominence,Involvement, and Persuasion Knowledge on Children's Cognitive and Affective Responses to Advergames

The integrated and highly involving nature of advergames has led to criticism and concern among academics and caretakers. It is assumed that children are highly susceptible to persuasion via advergames, but empirical evidence is scarce. Therefore, this study examined the effects of three factors typically associated with advergames: brand prominence, game involvement, and (limited) persuasion knowledge on cognitive and affective responses. An experiment among 7 to 12 year old children (N = 105) showed that brand prominence and game involvement influenced children's responses, while persuasion knowledge did not. Brand prominence led to increased brand recall and recognition, whereas game involvement led to more positive brand attitudes. The effect of game involvement was mediated by game attitude, indicating that children are susceptible to affective mechanisms induced by the game. Crucially, our results demonstrate that brand prominence evokes cognitive responses, while game involvement leads to affective responses. Finally, our study revealed that persuasion knowledge (i.e. knowledge of the commercial source of the game and its persuasive intent) did not influence cognitive or affective responses to the brand or game. This implies that even if children understand the game's commercial and persuasive nature, they do not use this knowledge as a defense against the advergame's effects. This study has important theoretical and practical implications regarding the influence of new marketing techniques on children.