滇中城市群优化发展模式研究

本文以滇中城市群规划为例,结合中外合作编制《云南省滇中城市群规划》实践,采用多情景发展模拟,将GIS工具与传统规划手段紧密耦合,针对离散型、区域型、都市型、网络型四种发展模式进行情景分析,并从中探索适合滇中城市群未来发展的、相对合理的规划方案。最终得出一个阶段性发展方案,即在2030年以前滇中城市群以区域型模式为主导,2030年以后以网络型模式为主的发展模式,推进滇中地区稳步、有序发展,逐步实现生态安全、资源集约、经济繁荣三者高度统一。     

Manufacturing Wage Differentials and Employment in Some Scandinavian Countries, the U.S. and the U.K.: An Analysis of Variance Approach

This paper presents some empirical evidence on the factors determining changes in wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers and in their employment. An ``analysis of variance' (ANOVA) model is estimated using UN data for five OECD countries in order to assess the relative importance of industry-specific, country-specific and international shocks (as well as interactions between industry and country effects). It is found that both international shocks and national policies affect wage differentials over the whole sample, whilst skill-biased technical change (SBTC) was a significant factor in the seventies. Employment responds mainly to international shocks, although national policies and SBTC were important determinants in the seventies and eighties respectively. Some of the results are found to be sensitive to the technology level of the industries considered.     

Rural families food intake behaviour in relation to livelihood diversification,income differences and family size

The livelihood diversification significantly contributes to the family income having effect on food varieties' consumption in rural families of different sizes. This study investigated the food intake differences among rural families considering different income levels and family sizes. Moreover, barriers faced by the rural families to increase the consumption of food varieties were also analysed. A total of 200 rural families were selected through multistage purposive and random sampling techniques in the Punjab province of Pakistan and were directly interviewed and categorized first into low and high livelihood diversified families. The food groups were derived by assigning individual food to conventional food group taxonomies, and two‐way ANOVA (4 (income groups) × 3 (family size groups) was separately conducted for low and high livelihood diversified families. The income instability, prices of food items, market distance and storage were perceived as barriers for increasing food consumption. The high livelihood diversified families significantly and regularly consumed more food items than low diversified families. The rural households both in low and high livelihood diversified family categories having low income and high family size consumed less expensive food items. The regular consumption of fruits, bakery products, and livestock and dairy items was greatly associated with high income and small family size. One of the most remarkable findings of the multivariate multiple regression model was the households belonging to the lowest income group were significantly lowering the consumption of livestock and dairy food items as the family size increased from small to large family size. The interaction effect was highly associated with per capita income because the consumption of food items increased with the rise in income irrespective of the family size. However, family size groups showed different patterns of food intakes with different income levels. Government agencies should assist rural households to diversify their income portfolios for better nutrition.     

Evaluation of a Renewable Energy Scenario in India For Economic and Co2 Mitigation Effects

Renewable energy technologies (RETs) are attractive for sustainable energy supply and CO₂ mitigation. In this paper, a CGE model is used to analyze the effects of rapid reduction of costs of solar power generation, an important RET, in India. Alternate scenarios of cost reduction of solar power, hybrid scenarios with a carbon tax and a scenario of only carbon tax are compared with a reference scenario. Simulation results show that under such a scenario, high penetration of solar technology, economic gains, and modest emission reduction are achieved. The analysis shows that compared to accelerated solar technology scenario, a carbon tax achieves superior mitigation. Broad policy implications for developing countries are drawn in the context of global climate change debate.     

Does export variety determine economic growth in Pakistan?

This study explores the impact of export variety on economic growth in Pakistan. Export variety is decomposed into export related (within sector) and unrelated variety (between sectors) to examine the long run effect of export related variety and unrelated variety on economic growth. For this purpose, we incorporated export related variety and unrelated variety into the production function. The result of cointegration test shows that variables of the study are cointegrated in the long run. The result of fully modified ordinary least squares confirms the positive and significant effect of export related variety and unrelated variety on economic growth. Furthermore, the long run estimates show that the magnitude of export related variety is more than export unrelated variety. This study also finds the positive and significant effect of human capital on economic growth in the long run. It can be deduced from the results of the study that a specific sector shock will not disturb the economic pace of Pakistan.     

American Overreach: Strategic Interests and Millennial Ambitions in the Middle East

This article argues that American actions in the Middle East designed to advance democracy and/or ‘moderation’ tend to yield perverse outcomes that frustrate the aspirations of local actors while undermining the values purportedly being promoted by the US. In order to explain these contradictions, we emphasise the linkage between policies of democracy promotion and long-standing American commitments both to millennialism and geographical omnipresence. As a result of these policies and geopolitical vision, we argue that ‘democracy promotion’ often devolves into a simple defence of American interest – by producing electoral outcomes intended to strengthen local agents seen as compliant with US regional priorities. In this context, the shift from democracy promotion to a policy of pursuing ‘moderation’ in the region, understood as support for American policies, is entirely coherent. Commentators tend to present this shift (particularly in the wake of the Iraq War) as recognition by US political actors of the imperial overtones embedded in more heavy-handed approaches to regime change. Yet, the call for moderation is itself profoundly intertwined with American millennial aspirations, while remaining remarkably devoid of clear content and thus equally amenable to manipulation for strategic ends. By way of conclusion, we suggest an alternative basis for a less intrusive American position in the region, one that rejects the need for an overstretched territorial presence and that is grounded in a substantive respect for local self-determination.     

Dynamic causality testing for EKC hypothesis,pollution haven hypothesis and international trade in India

This study examines the causality relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP) and CO₂ emissions along with the level of trade (exports and imports) taking place in India. The study uses data obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Group for the period 1982–2013. The study employed the dynamic multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (TY) approach that uses the modified Wald (MWALD) test. Among the major findings of the study are: the existence of both Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. The other findings of the study are: FDI is causing exports; exports are causing imports; imports are causing CO₂ emissions; and finally CO₂ emissions and GDP are causing each other. This finding concludes mainly two things. First, India imports more of pollution-intensive manufactured goods. Second, FDI is causing GDP in India but through CO₂ emissions.     

Learning by doing: Active employer sponsored retirement savings plan participation and household wealth accumulation

This paper investigates the impact of household exposure to employer pension plan features using the Health and Retirement Survey. We investigate whether exposure to active management (choice) or participation in plan-sponsored financial education seminars impacts household portfolio allocations and wealth. We consider interactions between pension design and investment patterns outside of workers’ pension plans, utilizing two parametric estimators: the random effects probit and the multivariate probit. We extend our results non-parametrically via propensity score matching. We find repeated evidence that both of the plan features improve asset allocations and financial outcomes for recent retirees, especially when used together.