Performance of Core Inflation Measures

This paper assesses the performance of core inflation measures based on the structural VAR approach. Since core or monetary inflation is not directly observable, we develop a monetary general equilibrium model that fits real aggregated European data and we use this model to generate time series for headline as well as core inflation. For five different schemes which attempt to identify core inflation within a VAR framework it is investigated whether the estimated core inflation series recover the true series sufficiently precise in order to be useful for monetary policy.     

Gender, Time Use, and Public Policy over the Life Cycle

In this paper we compare gender differences in the allocationof time to market work, domestic work, child care, and leisureover the life cycle. Time-use profiles for these activity categoriesare constructed on survey data for three countries: Australia,the UK, and Germany. We discuss the extent to which gender differencesand life-cycle variation in time use can be explained by publicpolicy, focusing on the tax treatment of the female partnerand on access to high-quality, affordable child care. Profilesof time use, earnings, and taxes are compared over the lifecycle defined on age as well as on phases that represent thekey transitions in the life cycle of a typical household. Ourcontention is that, given the decision to have children, life-cycletime use and consumption decisions of households are determinedby them and by public policy. Before children arrive, the adultmembers of the household have high labour supplies and plentyof leisure. The presence of pre-school children, in combinationwith the tax treatment of the second earner's income and thecost of bought-in child care, dramatically change the patternof time use, leading to large falls in female labour supply.We also highlight the fact that, in the three countries we study,female labour supply exhibits a very high degree of heterogeneityafter the arrival of children, and we show that this has importantimplications for public policy. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: pfapps{at}law.usyd.edu.au; ray.rees{at}lrz.uni-muenchen.de     

Gedragsmodellen van de Economische Groei

Summary Two behavioural models of economic growth are developed: a neo-classical and a neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) one.In the neo-classical model consumers aspire to a certain level of consumption. Savings and supply of labour (man-hours) are the means for reaching this level.In the neo-keynesian model firms and households have a certain aspiration level with respect to profits and consumption, respectively. To reach these levels firms decide to invest and households to supply man-hours.In both models growth is entirely dependent on the parameters of the behaviour equations. In this respect they differ from the traditional neo-classical and neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) models, in which growth is eventually determined by autonomous technical progress and growth of the labour force.     

Long-term forecasting of the development of Russia’s pension system: Factors and conditions

The problems associated with the reformation of the pension system have gained extreme urgency in the process of forming the long-term strategy for Russia??s socioeconomic development (until 2030), which is determined by the growth in its influence on the macroeconomic strategy. This paper gives an actuarial substantiation of the actual factors and conditions, on which the development of the pension system in the Russian Federation depends, and prospects for the stability of the pension budget based on insurance principles.     

The Impact of Search Costs and Asymmetric Information on Current Value Accounting

This paper examines the impact that search costs and asymmetric information would have on financial statements if either of the two main systems of current value accounting were introduced. The significance of search costs is that, although the models which determine the optimal amount of search are becoming more general, they are based on very restrictive assumptions and are of limited practical application. In relation to the second issue, where asset markets are dominated by asymmetric information, the ‘signal’ conveyed by the accounts would be misleading. It is argued that, whilst these two issues can more easily be resolved where the provision of financial information is unregulated, they are likely to be important considerations in the political process which results in an accounting standard.