终身寿险退保的利率敏感性分析——基于保单保障水平的测算

市场利率变化对于不分红终身寿险产品退保的影响很大,终身寿险保单不能够通过选择较长的缴费期来缓解市场利率变化引起的退保压力,调整预定利率能缓解退保压力;适当的分红政策能够大大缓解市场利率变化对分红型终身寿险退保的影响,但是经营效益差,分红水平低于市场预期的寿险公司产品可能会遭遇到更大的退保压力。     

基于气田枝状管网集气站压力确定及计算软件开发

枝状管网集气站压力通常是根据气体处理厂进厂压力与经验值反推确定,同时存在集气站压力不能因井口压力发生变化而变化的问题,进一步导致不能最优化利用输气管道系统。根据处理厂进厂压力及单井井口压力共同确定集气站压力,以平坦地区长距离输气管道基本公式为基础,运用流体力学及相关基础理论进行程序编写,计算软件可实现对集气站压力和各输气管道对应管线流量的求解。计算结果与巴格德雷合同区域B区扬-恰、别-皮气田内部集输工程的现场数据进行对比,计算结果吻合度高,符合现场工程实际。     

随机需求下横向并购供应链网络整合优化策略研究

本文从系统优化视角,针对增设集散中心的横向并购供应链网络整合策略,利用变分不等式建立了随机需求下的整合优化模型。以市场链为主线,以供应链网络均衡理论为基 础,构建了以横向并购供应链网络活动总成本最小为目标的数学模型,通过转换成变分不等式采用改进的欧拉算法进行模型求解。通过数值算例进一步说明了模型的适用性和灵活性,得出了增设集散中心的并购整合策略能够降低供应链网络的平均运营成本的结论,通过对比不同市场紧密程度下产生的供应链网络平均成本协同效应,发现随着市场紧密程度的增加其协同效应更明显,为横向并购供应链网络整合优化提供理论依据与方法。     

Does experience imply learning?

Research summary : Research traditionally uses experiential learning arguments to explain the existence of a positive relationship between repetition of an activity and performance. We propose an additional interpretation of this relationship in the context of discrete corporate development activities. We argue that firms choose to repeat successful activities, thereby accumulating high experience with them. Data on 437 aircraft projects introduced through three governance modes show that the positive performance effect of the firm's experience with the focal mode becomes insignificant after accounting for experience endogeneity. We suggest that in a general case, experience with corporate development activities may be tinged with both learning and selection effects. Therefore, omitting to account for experience endogeneity may lead to incorrect conclusions from an “empirically observed” positive experience–performance relationship. Managerial summary : This paper emphasizes that firms generally choose to undertake the corporate development activities (new product introductions, diversification moves, international expansions, alliances, acquisitions, etc.) with which they have been the most successful in the past and that they expect to be the most successful in the future. Hence, if a firm possesses certain capabilities, it will repeatedly engage in certain activities corresponding to those capabilities, thereby simultaneously achieving high levels of activity experience as well as superior activity performance. This view suggests that an “empirically observed” positive experience–performance relationship may not be due solely to learning‐based enhanced capabilities but may also be driven by astute self‐selection. Overall, we provide a new interpretation of the relationship between experience and performance in the context of infrequent, heterogeneous, and causally‐ambiguous corporate development activities. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

坚定不移地深化改革完善落实科学发展观与构建和谐社会的体制保障

胡锦涛总书记指出,要在新的历史起点上继续推进社会主义现代化建设,说到底要靠深化改革、扩大开放.要毫不动摇地坚持改革方向,进一步坚定改革的决心和信心.温家宝总理强调,改革开放是决定中国命运的重大决策.20多年来,我国经济社会发展取得的一切成就,都是同坚决地推进经济体制改革和对外开放分不开的.要实现新阶段的发展任务,把中国特色社会主义事业继续推向前进,必须坚定不移地深化改革、扩大开放.中央领导同志在"十一五"规划刚刚起步的时候,旗帜鲜明地再次强调要毫不动摇地坚持改革方向、不失时机地推进改革,具有重要的现实意义.     

HR-BP工作绩效:形成机理、影响因素及路径选择

本文首先阐述了人力资源业务合作伙伴(HR-BP)工作绩效的形成机理,然后从个体层面和组织层面分析了HR-BP工作绩效的影响因素,最后提出了若干改善HR-BP工作绩效的选择路径。     

企业BPR实施过程中的风险分析

企业实施业务流程重组(BPR)是一个南风险高收益的项目。针对目前国内企业BPR风险性高,成功率低的情况,我 们有必要对实施BPR过程中的各种风险因素进行分析研究,并找出解决方案,以期对我国企业顺利进行企业流程再造有所帮 助。     

Optimal model averaging forecasting in high-dimensional survival analysis

This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response variable. The first step is to construct a class of candidate models, each with low-dimensional covariates. For this, a feature screening procedure is developed to separate the active and inactive predictors through a marginal Buckley–James index, and to group covariates with a similar index size together to form regression models with survival response variables. The proposed screening method can select active predictors under covariate-dependent censoring, and enjoys sure screening consistency under mild regularity conditions. The second step is to find the optimal model weights for averaging by adapting a delete-one cross-validation criterion, without the standard constraint that the weights sum to one. The theoretical results show that the delete-one cross-validation criterion achieves the lowest possible forecasting loss asymptotically. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed variable screening and model averaging procedures over existing methods.     

城乡要素自由流动促进新发展格局形成的路径研究

城乡要素自由流动是畅通国民经济循环、构建“双循环”新发展格局的内在要求。从需求端看,城乡要素自由流动既有利于劳动力等要素流向城市、推进新型城镇化;也有利于高端要素回流乡村,激发乡村蛰伏的发展潜能、促进乡村振兴,从而为构建“双循环”新发展格局拓展新的内需空间。从供给端看,城乡要素自由流动有利于畅通生产、分配、流通和消费各环节,平衡城乡要素结构,提升要素配置效率,为构建“双循环”新发展格局培植新动能。因此,要发挥“有效市场”在要素配置中的决定性作用,深化城乡要素市场化配置改革,消除阻碍城乡要素自由流动和高效配置的各种体制障碍,打通“双循环”新发展格局中城乡要素流动的关键堵点。要发挥“有为政府”在乡村基础设施和政策体系制度供给中的作用,深化户籍、土地等制度改革,使城乡人口流动摆脱户籍制约,构建城乡统一的建设用地出让机制。要加大对要素返乡的支持力度,全面推进城乡新型基础设施建设,为形成“双循环”新发展格局提供有力的要素支撑。     

超大断面地铁车站双层叠合初支拱盖法的设计与施工

重庆地铁车站多为超大断面暗挖隧道,具有开挖面积大、覆跨比小、岩体上软下硬、对施工安全及工程质量要求高的特点.需要谨慎确定合适的工法及技术要点,以达到在保证施工安全、质量优良的同时又能较好节约工程投资的目标.本文在汲取国内既有的二衬拱盖法经验和教训的基础上,对设计和施工要点进行了研究和优化,在凤西路站成功实施了双层叠合初支拱盖法,对我国其它地区类似工程建设同样具有重要的参考和借鉴意义.