Stable Tariffs and Retaliations*

A two‐country, two‐commodity model of trade is considered to reformulate the tariff retaliations. It is known that tariff retaliations lead to a Nash‐equilibrium, a non‐free‐trade outcome. However, the negotiation process underlying the Nash equilibrium does not capture the notion of retaliation properly. We use the “contingent threat situation” to reformulate tariff retaliations. In this context, we show that the free trade is a stable outcome. More surprisingly, this interesting result is also valid for the “Johnson case,” where one country is better off under the tariff‐ridden Nash equilibrium compared to free trade.     

Merton Model and Capital Measurement in Commercial Banks: A Case Study of Selected Emerging Countries in Southeast Asia

Following the implementation of Basel III criteria concerning the supervision of banks capital, this paper attempts to examine the competence of Merton-type probability of default as an indicator for measuring optimal capital in commercial banks of five Southeast Asian emerging economies. The estimated default risk changes are consistent with the changes in market value of banks’ asset in countries studied. Using a forward-looking approach, the banks required capital has been measured to reach a hypothetical level of probability of default as an accepted level by policy makers. Empirical results show that the banks had to increase their current capital in order to reduce the risk of bankruptcy in crisis times. The findings of this study refer evidently to the efficiency of Merton-type default risk to estimate the adequate capital and to use in micro and macro-prudential studies or stress tests on commercial banks.     

Sanctions and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from Iranian provinces

Using Iranian province level data from 2001 to 2013, this study finds that the international sanctions of 2012/2013 had a significantly stronger negative impact on the growth rate of the shadow economy than they did on the official GDP growth rate. Thus, the international sanctions on Iran have damaged the informal economy even more than the formal economy.     

Demand estimation for the Iranian automobile industry

The main contribution of this paper is a simple theoretical framework and empirical estimations explaining the behavior of the manufacturers. The paper focuses on the frequently used methods of demand estimation for discrete choice models to analyze the Iranian automobile market. It shows how both major companies in Iran choose to produce lower quality products and why they still collusively charge high markups. Empirical estimations are based on Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) to predict marginal costs and markups. Estimation results also support the hypothesis that manufacturers are charging high markups. In addition, the counterfactual analysis carried out supports the view that both duopolist firms prefer to operate at lower quality rather than at higher quality production levels. They also collusively price their products. Furthermore, analyses are performed using the Multinomial Logit methodology to better understand the Iranian automobile market. Tastes of people with different genders and ages for some specific cars are explained, and the effects of population changes on auto demand are predicted.     

Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model

This study investigates the causes and consequences of import and export smuggling and estimates its relative size in Iran from 1970 to 2002. Multiple Indicators–Multiple Causes (MIMIC) modeling and trade misinvoicing are used to compute the latent variable of smuggling. The results indicate that the penalty rate for smuggling and the quality of economic and political institutions reduce smuggling, while tariffs and black market premia increase the incentives for illegal trade. More trade openness is associated with greater illegal trade in the case of Iran. On average, smuggling in Iran has been approximately 13% of total trade.     

Integrated multi-period cell formation and subcontracting production planning in dynamic cellular manufacturing systems

In this paper, an integrated mathematical model of the multi-period cell formation and production planning in a dynamic cellular manufacturing system (DCMS) is proposed with the aim of minimizing machine, inter/intra-cell movement, reconfiguration, partial subcontracting, and inventory carrying costs. This paper puts emphasis on the effect of the trade-off between production and outsourcing costs on the re-configuration of the cells in cellular manufacturing systems (CMSs) under a dynamic environment, in which the product mix is different from a period to another resulting in the operational dynamism in the cells. The proposed model is verified by a number of numerical examples and related sensitivity analysis.     

Regulatory Federalism and Broadband Divergence: Implications of Invoking Europe in the Making of Canadian Telecom Policy

Invocations of Europe are increasingly evident in Canadian debates about wholesale broadband access, consumer protection, network neutrality and basic service policies. While some stakeholders in Canadian debates point to national and local approaches in Europe that appear to have been relatively successful in fostering broadband infrastructure development, others suggest that Europe is lagging behind and Canada should avoid Europe’s purported policy errors.     

On Mergers and Agglomeration

We formulate a model of mergers and acquisitions assuming a monopolistic competitive industry that exhibits agglomeration economies. We provide the conditions for the existence of a non‐trivial Nash equilibrium in the acquisition market at which the most productive firm acquires a range of less‐productive firms. Most importantly, we show that domestic merger and acquisition activities are international trade promotionary. We also show that such types of mergers and acquisition will improve the competitive position of foreign firms leading to an increase in their market share. In addition, domestic mergers and acquisitions will increase the number of imported varieties.     

Housing Wealth,Financial Wealth and Consumption Expenditure: The Role of Consumer Confidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of consumer confidence on the relationship between two forms of wealth—housing and financial—and four categories of consumption expenditure, which include total consumption, service, durable goods and nondurable goods consumption. This paper uses U.S. quarterly data from 1978 to 2012 for its analysis. Applying the FMOLS estimation method, the results show that consumer confidence has a positive effect on the association between housing wealth and consumption expenditure, whereas its effect on the association between financial wealth and consumption expenditure is negative. The implications of these results are discussed.     

An Experimental Analysis of Face to Face versus Computer Mediated Communication Channels

Experimental research on Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) has generally focused on democratic groups whose members typically share the same objectives. In organizations, however, there are many situations where groups have a leader who has the power to override the group's recommendation, the objective of the leader may not be the same as the objective of each member, and not everyone may have the same information. This paper reports the results of an experiment in which the groups, having a designated leader, worked on a mixed-motive task. Within this context, we analyze group decision outcomes and processes for groups that use a face-to-face channel of cormnunication and those that utilize computer mediated communication. We compare performance of the leader and members with respect to an objective measure of performance, the efficient frontier. The results indicate that for this task groups using face-to-face channel outperform groups using computer mediated communication.